Well, I just don't really think Tale of Verve belongs. My belief is that he threw in a fluky race on a wet track in Baltimore. In fact, the more I look at it, the more I think the Preakness was just a horseshit field that has people fooled into thinking AP is stronger than he is. Dortmund wasn't as good as he was earlier in California and Firing Line almost fell down.

I think it's highly likely that Keen Ice will be moving faster than everyone else in the last furlong. He's made to go the 12 panels. Madefromlucky might be like that too. I don't think either of those two is going to stop going forward as this race goes on. And AP has dropped anchor in the final furlong of the first two legs. It just wasn't noticeable because nobody else was moving much better.

The race is going to come down to the pace scenario. No doubt Keen Ice needs some luck. If AP waltzes around the track, someone might catch him, but it's going to have to be someone who is sitting pretty close.

Of course, I can understand how someone could look at my line and think 4/1 is insane for Keen Ice. But my thinking is that if they ran this thing 100 times the front would completely collapse about twenty times and Keen Ice would be the guy picking up the pieces.

:lol: Where do you come up with this shit, Walt?

I rarely troll.

Joe explain to the class why you think AP can not win the Belmont

I think the 3 races in 5 weeks is the big factor for me.

I'm on Materiality.

I rarely troll.

I'm somewhat emotionally attached to Materiality. I cashed a big bet on him in the Florida Derby. I'm trying not to allow that to affect my objectivity. But I think both Pletcher horses are legitimate contenders in here. If you watch the replay of the Rebel, sure, AP won it easy, but Madefromlucky never stopped trying. He wasn't dispirited. Now you've got all this extra distance, who knows what might happen.

He wasn't dispirited so he went on to lose by 9 in the Arkansas Derby

Well, I guess it's a good thing for him he isn't running in the Arkansas Derby tomorrow.

Pick 4 thoughts Races 8-11.

R8 Just A Game
I'm going with the 9 TEPIN...that fucker was the reason I missed out on a Pick 5 on Derby Day a month ago. I won't be fooled twice.


R9 Met Mile
My longshot pick of the day with be the 10 KOBE'S BACK...ML says 20-1, I got a feeling that may go down. Ever since the change to trainer Peter Eurton and jockey Gary Stevens, this horse seems to have found his best stride.

R10 Manhattan
I think the 3 FINNEGAN'S WAKE is the best older turf horse going, until Wise Dan comes back. The 2 TWILIGHT ECLIPSE will try to steal it on the front end, but I expect Finny to come from the back with a late kick.

R11 Belmont
Hard to pick against 5 AMERICAN PHAROAH, but the angle that I'm going with is to find a horse that has won on this track recently, which would be the 3 MADEFROMLUCKY, who won in the Peter Pan about a month ago.



Pick 4 ticket (50 cents)

R8: 3, 4, 9
R9: 4, 7, 10
R10: 2, 3
R11: 3, 5, 6, 8

Total cost $36

it appears to be raining in Elmont

Isnt that good for AP? Seems to handle it much better than most....?

Also if you fuck someone like they are a millionaire they might go try to be one.

Weird post time, don't you think?

5:50 our time. Then the Blackhawks pregame starts on NBC @ 6pm.

If the triple crown is had, people want to see the interviews of everybody and the celebration. They'll only have 7 minutes to do so before they have to get off the air.

Why not just make it a 5:40 post time so you have plenty of time for a post game?

The weird part is the almost complete avoidance of the money portion...they might flash the $ results...but they ignore it as if nobody is watching for that purpose...nor do they even talk about it? As if promoting wagering is against a certain groups interests?

Sort of like the NFL.

R8 Just A Game
I'm going with the 9 TEPIN...that fucker was the reason I missed out on a Pick 5 on Derby Day a month ago. I won't be fooled twice.

I rarely troll.

Sort of like the NFL.

Pick 3

9-9
10-1,6,9
11 - 5,6

$30 ticket.

Like to know if I am in or out early....thus the single...would then reload for the Stakes.

I rarely troll.

Guys, whenever you are doing multi race wagers like Pick 3/4/5/6s, never never never leave Pletcher horses or Castellano mounts off your tickets...I don't care if they are 99/1.

I totally missed Castellano on Honor Code.