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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:25 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
And I sure don't expect that .87 of a run to be the excuse why a guy someone is claiming to be a great but "unlucky" pitcher lost a game that was won by a guy many would call an ordinary pitcher.

Here is where you lose me.

.87 is significant in runs scored per game. Just like .87 of an ERA would be significant


The 4 run team is a lot harder to pitch to then the 3.13 team.

You seem to value the single game elements over the team's record. While single game elements matter, it all evens out.

The A's (pitchers park btw) are a lot harder to pitch to than the Rays and that difference is less than a run. Still significant.


And this is our 2015 version of this discussion. See ya next year!


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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:32 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
And I sure don't expect that .87 of a run to be the excuse why a guy someone is claiming to be a great but "unlucky" pitcher lost a game that was won by a guy many would call an ordinary pitcher.

Here is where you lose me.

.87 is significant in runs scored per game. Just like .87 of an ERA would be significant


The 4 run team is a lot harder to pitch to then the 3.13 team.

You seem to value the single game elements over the team's record. While single game elements matter, it all evens out.

The A's (pitchers park btw) are a lot harder to pitch to than the Rays and that difference is less than a run. Still significant.


And this is our 2015 version of this discussion. See ya next year!



But how is that .87 derived? It's not being built against the best pitchers. Or it shouldn't be. If it is, maybe we should rethink how good we believe they are.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:34 pm 
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What?

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:38 pm 
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IMU wrote:
What?



How does the team averaging .87 more than the other team score the extra runs? You act like they go out there and play 162 games and score 4.69 runs in each of those 162 games. If you took that team that averages 4.69 and had them play 162 games where they faced Clayton Kershaw or Matt Harvey each time, they wouldn't be scoring 4.69 runs per game. So if you're telling me a guy is a good pitcher, isn't it fair to expect that he would allow less than that team averages? Or does it make more sense to say he's unlucky because he faced a tougher offense?

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:43 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
What?



How does the team averaging .87 more than the other team score the extra runs? You act like they go out there and play 162 games and score 4.69 runs in each of those 162 games. If you took that team that averages 4.69 and had them play 162 games where they faced Clayton Kershaw or Doug Harvey each time, they wouldn't be scoring 4.69 runs per game. So if you're telling me a guy is a good pitcher, isn't it fair to expect that he would allow less than that team averages? Or does it make more sense to say he's unlucky because he faced a tougher offense?

They aren't extra runs. They are runs scored because their offense is superior to other offenses. And over the course of a season, most offenses are facing most of the same pitchers and teams.

All teams go out there and try to score 30 runs a game. Some teams end up scoring 3 runs a game. Others 5 runs a game.

If a team that scores 4.69 runs a game had to face Doug Harvey....who the fuck is Doug Harvey?

If a team that scores 4.69 runs a game had to face Clayton Kershaw or Matt Harvey each time, they wouldn't be scoring 4.69 runs a game.

If a team that scores 3.05 runs a game had to face Clayton Kershaw or Matt Harvey each time, they wouldn't be scoring 3.05 runs a game.

If Clayton Kershaw or Matt Harvey had to face the Toronto Blue Jays every game, they wouldn't have an ERA as low as they have either.

This is simple. fucking. stuff. These are averages. Everything is factored in. You keep trying to find ways to break a simple concept that has been around since mathematics came into existence.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:48 pm 
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Doug Harvey is an umpire. But you knew I meant Matt.

You're missing the point entirely. I'm not arguing with you about what an average is.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:51 pm 
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No, you're arguing with mathematicians or Merriam Webster, not me.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:52 pm 
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IMU wrote:
No, you're arguing with mathematicians or Merriam Webster, not me.



Not at all. Don't blame me for your lack of reading comprehension.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:53 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
No, you're arguing with mathematicians or Merriam Webster, not me.



Not at all. Don't blame me for your lack of reading comprehension.

I'm not blaming you for not understanding basic baseball concepts. I blame your father.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 2:55 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
No, you're arguing with mathematicians or Merriam Webster, not me.



Not at all. Don't blame me for your lack of reading comprehension.

I'm not blaming you for not understanding basic baseball concepts. I blame your father.



You know what's funny? You're so confident in your bad thoughts.

Can you answer a simple question? Do you believe that more runs scored are scored off good pitchers or off bad ones?

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:02 pm 
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I refuse to answer your stupid questions while you search for some type of angle to continue your bad thoughts. It wasn't me voted worst sports poster on the board.

You've said that 141 runs scored by one team versus another team 'don't matter.'

You're on an island.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:13 pm 
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IMU wrote:
I refuse to answer your stupid questions while you search for some type of angle to continue your bad thoughts. It wasn't me voted worst sports poster on the board.

You've said that 141 runs scored by one team versus another team 'don't matter.


You're on an island.


I don't mind. Most progressive thinkers stand alone.

And it isn't 141 runs scored mainly off turds. It's less than a run in today's game and in spite of being considered "good" Jose Quintana can't usually overcome it.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:17 pm 
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I really don't understand your point. Maybe you're not stating it clearly enough.

Those 141 runs scored. In the NL and AL, teams are pretty much facing the same competition. Sure, you'll play more games in your own division, but every division usually has good teams and bad teams. So strength of schedule balances out pretty well over the course of 162 games. Teams face good pitchers and bad pitchers. Pitchers face good offenses and bad offenses.

But these 141 runs scored. And they matter. And they can be used to determine the effectiveness of a team just like any other average, for instance...starter's ERA. Didn't the Cardinals recently (and maybe still) have no starter with an ERA over 3? The Cubs don't have that.

One can determine the Cardinals starting pitching is better than the Cubs because of this.

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 Post subject: Re: Statistic
PostPosted: Tue Jun 16, 2015 7:56 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

I don't mind. Most progressive thinkers stand alone.

So do crazy people, for what it's worth.

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