Hatchetman wrote:
I'm not sure what the actual number is, but somewhere in that 15-25 runs/year sounds reasonable to me. dewan's thought about it way more than me.
Look, the 1B is responsible for his area of the field. why are balls hit in his area less important than balls hit in someone else's area?
I respect Dewan and his research, but having said that, I'm always suspicious of any "stat" that measures theoretical "runs".
It's not that balls hit to the first baseman's area of the field are any more or less important than balls hit anywhere else. It's that there aren't as many of them and the quality of those batted balls is different. Most chances a first baseman handles are throws directly to him from other infielders. And
all first basemen scoop balls out of the dirt, even the worst of them. Of course, there are guys that are better at it than others, but the instances where it is necessary and the importance of being able to do so is minimal when compared to other things.
It's the nature of the position. Teams have to get their offense somewhere. The game is about pitching which is the same thing as saying it's about hitting. That's why you suffer with the slight cost of lesser defense from Lamar Johnson rather than running Jim Spencer out there everyday. The offensive upside is so much greater than the defensive downside. And almost every team has hitters it wants in the lineup. In the AL you can DH one of those guys. In the NL you have to put him on the field. They usually go to first base or left field.
That's why there's so much talk about Schwarber. You yourself have declared him a Hall of Famer. If that's going to turn out to be the case, he's gotta play somewhere. He doesn't look so sporty in left. But the truth is, if Schwaber is the offensive player you believe he is, you'd put him in left over Alex Gordon every day of the week. And Gordon is as good as a left fielder gets. If you're any better than he is, you're a center fielder.
You have to look at the other guys playing the position. Sure, it's nice to have Wally Joyner at first. But if you do, you're always looking for a guy who is going to give you more offense (and that usually comes with less defense) so you can replace him. For what a first baseman has to do defensively, there simply isn't enough difference between the best and the worst. Compare that to a position like short where you could never get away with playing Kris Bryant at short over the long term because the difference between him and Jhonny Peralta is just too great defensively, let alone Addison Russell or Andrelton Simmons. Although Bryant is enough of an athlete that he could probably hide at short for awhile and his hitting at that position would definitely make him a perennial All-Star and likely Hall of Fame candidate.
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Abreu has higher WAR in two seasons than Hosmer has compiled in five. I guess that sparkling defense isn't helping too much!
