|
Thought I would paste this hear for those who don't have Insider.
Think the Bulls are OK after Tuesday night's win over Atlanta? Think again.
While on the surface the win might ease some concerns in Chicago, the fact is they showed nearly all the same problems they displayed during a miserable 2-10 start. Yes, the Bulls got a win, at least, and a relatively easy one at that. But if you dig deeper, not much changed.
Let's pull back the lens a bit. In a season that's gone largely according to form, the dominant surprise is that a Chicago team expected to challenge for the Eastern Conference title has been unexpectedly awful.
Even with the win, the Bulls have the worst record in the East, and perhaps more importantly its worst point differential at a whopping -8.3 per game. They even lost the much-anticipated Titanic versus Hindenburg matchup against the Knicks last Friday, scoring just 78 points against one of the league's worst defensive teams.
Despite the win, Tuesday repeated a familiar cycle: The Bulls couldn't score, Kirk Hinrich was awful, and they needed a heroic defensive effort to leave with a win. The Bulls scored only 34 points in the first half and failed to shoot 40 percent for the 10th time in 13 games.
The only reason they finished with a quasi-respectable 90 points was that they grabbed an absurd 24 offensive rebounds -- in other words, they shot just as many bricks as always but grabbed an unusual number of misses. Even so, they had 90 points in 90 possessions -- below the league average in offensive efficiency -- while playing at home against a below-average defensive team.
In the big picture, the Bulls' offensive woes are a noteworthy story because they're so totally unexpected. Usually, when a team struggles unexpectedly, we have something we can point to. Either there was a roster change or an injury or a coaching issue or, well, something that we can finger as the obvious difference between this season and last season.
With the Bulls, it's a much tougher puzzle. They've been healthy, and they're one of the league's youngest teams, and they brought back the same core as a season ago, and they have the same coach. The only difference is that last season they won 49 games and had the best point differential in the Eastern Conference, and this season they're terrible.
Gary Dineen/NBAE/Getty Images
The entire Bulls team is at fault for its early woes.
Obviously, there has to be a cause, so let's break it down. A lot of people are saying the Bulls have wearied of coach Scott Skiles' hard-driving ways, because in his fifth season the players are no longer as receptive to his message. Usually, the clearest sign of this is that the team stops defending with as much passion, and to be honest there hasn't been that great a drop-off.
The Bulls rank sixth in the league in Defensive Efficiency, hardly a sign of a team mailing it in. Though this is a bit of a dip compared to their full-season numbers from last season, when they led the league, it's instructive to note that after 13 games a season ago the Bulls ranked 10th in this category. So it seems as if they're giving a reasonable effort, especially when one considers that defensive ace Ben Wallace struggled with ankle problems the first couple weeks.
Offensively, it's a different story. Chicago was a mediocre offensive team a season ago, ranking only 20th among the league's 30 teams. The Bulls were in similar straits then at the 13-game mark. However, this season they've taken a quantum leap backward.
Chicago is dead last in the league in Offensive Efficiency, and even that doesn't do justice to the team's awfulness. The Bulls are producing a meager 89.1 points per 100 possessions. In a league where the median team nets 103.0, that is unspeakably bad. For some historical perspective, consider that if they keep this up they will rank as the worst offensive team in history relative to the league.
Breaking down the team stats, the mystery becomes more perplexing. Again, effort doesn't seem to be the problem. Chicago is playing at the same pace as a season ago. It turns the ball over about as much, gets about as many offensive rebounds, and shoots the same number of 3-pointers. Everything about the Bulls' offense seems exactly the same, except they're drawing slightly fewer fouls.
Oh, except there's one other little detail: They can't make a shot.
Chicago is shooting 38.6 percent from the floor and 28.9 percent on 3-pointers, a comically bad effort for a team that is allegedly one of the best long-range outfits in the league. Last season, for comparison purposes, those digits were 45.7 percent and 38.8 percent, respectively. Basically, the entire difference between last season's passable offense and this season's horrid one lies in those two numbers.
And here's where our story takes another turn. As I mentioned above, usually when a team struggles you can blame it on one or two obvious differences. Similarly, when a team struggles offensively you can usually isolate it to subpar performances from one or two players. But this is why Chicago's performance is so perplexing. Break down the Bulls' offensive results and you'll discover the reason for the bad start is poor performances by …
Everybody.
I mean, this is flabbergasting. It's not just that one or two guys are off to poor starts. Literally every key player is performing vastly below his career norms with the exception of Joe Smith. It's so bad that not a single Bull has a true shooting percentage that can match the league average of 53.4, not even the guys at the end of the bench who have played five minutes. Let's go through the carnage:
Bulls Offense: 2006-07 vs. 2007-08
Year FG% 3P% TS% PPG PER
Ben Gordon 2006-07 45.5 41.3 57.2 21.4 18.31
2007-08 36.7 27.3 47.0 18.1 10.59
Luol Deng 2006-07 51.7 14.3 56.0 18.8 18.79
2007-08 45.3 75.0 48.9 16.0 15.94
Kirk Hinrich 2006-07 44.8 41.5 55.9 16.6 17.09
2007-08 34.6 20.5 41.4 10.4 7.77
Andres Nocioni 2006-07 46.7 38.3 57.8 14.1 15.69
2007-08 42.5 31.1 51.8 13.7 14.78
Ben Wallace 2006-07 45.3 20.0 45.6 6.4 14.59
2007-08 37.1 0.0 36.8 4.6 11.50
Chris Duhon 2006-07 40.8 35.9 52.9 7.2 11.94
2007-08 33.8 34.5 46.1 5.2 10.08
Tyrus Thomas 2006-07 47.5 0.0 52.1 5.2 14.80
2007-08 40.4 0.0 42.9 6.8 11.44
Thabo Sefolosha 2006-07 42.6 35.7 46.4 3.6 8.52
2007-08 28.8 30.8 34.1 4.2 3.85
• Hinrich is Exhibit A for the abomina-Bulls, with his jump shot going completely in the tank and taking the rest of his game for a ride down the commode. Last season he hit 41.5 percent of his 3-pointers; this year he's managed to make less than half of that, at 20.5 percent. He's not doing much better on 2-pointers, making only 39.5 percent, while his turnovers are up from a season ago. Hinrich's 7.77 PER is in Eric Snow territory, which might be OK if he weren't making over $11 million this season.
• Ben Gordon seems headed for the Bonzi Wells Hall of Fame for bad contract decisions. He turned down a $50 million extension in hopes of reaping more loot next summer, but he'll be lucky to get $5 million if he keeps playing like this. Gordon has one of the game's most beautiful outside shots, but he's made only 27.3 percent of his 3-point shots so far -- a big deal when you're hoisting nearly five a game. Like Hinrich, he's also struggled from inside the arc (40.6 percent); unlike Hinrich, he doesn't have his defense to fall back on, so he's fairly useless if he isn't knocking down shots.
• Luol Deng hasn't been as outlandishly bad as some of his teammates, but after last season's postseason breakout he's still been a disappointment. Like Gordon, he turned down a big-money extension and may live to rue the day, as his shooting percentage is way down from a season ago (45.3 percent against 51.7 percent last season and so his scoring average.
• Andres Nocioni has seen his PER (player efficiency rating) drop off the least of his Bulls teammates, but his dips have come in the two most painful categories: shooting percentage and 3-point percentage. Though he's perhaps the only Bull besides Smith who still looks comfortable pulling the trigger, he's down to 31.1 percent from long range on the season and rivals Gordon for the team lead in attempts at nearly five a game. The only reason his PER hasn't dropped more is because he cut his turnovers in half, but part of that seems to be because he's so willing to let it rip off the catch, and he's not finding the net.
• Ben Wallace's decline has been well-documented by many others and compared to that of his teammates hasn't been particularly severe, but certainly any look at offensive struggles has to account for the fact that the team basically plays four on five.
• Tyrus Thomas, meanwhile, has had trouble establishing a niche despite his undeniable talent. He's shooting only 40.4 percent from the floor, a very poor figure for a frontcourt player who likes to play around the basket. He's also struggling at 51.6 percent from the line.
• Chris Duhon, though a secondary player, hasn't been immune to the bug either. By Chicago's standards he's been money on 3-pointers at a team-leading 34.5 percent -- yes, I just said "team-leading 34.5 percent" -- but that's hardly good, obviously, and he's been an awful 33.3 percent inside the arc. Unbelievably, there's a chance he may back into a starting job, since he hasn't been as unrelentingly awful as Hinrich.
• Finally, Thabo Sefolosha, after showing he needed some work at the offensive end during his rookie season, has emphatically reinforced that theory in his sophomore campaign. He's shooting 28.3 percent from inside the 3-point line, and his 34.1 TS% (true shooting percentage) is horrid even by this team's historically low standards.
So what can Skiles do? If one or two guys are struggling, there are some strategic options to consider -- run some players to get them easier shots early in the game, or maybe get them the ball in different situations, or play with lineups a little to get some different matchups.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Kirk Hinrich's shooting ability seems all but gone this season.
But if everybody is struggling, what's the prescription then? Even moving one or more of the starters to the bench doesn't necessarily make sense, because there isn't anyone worthy of promotion to the starting lineup. In a fair world the backups would be demoted too.
However, if forced to choose a prescription that has some small iota of a chance of working, I would recommend two things.
First and foremost, the Bulls have to get Smith more burn. He's the only frontcourt player who is producing, but has seen fewer than 20 minutes in his last eight appearances. Until further notice, start him at power forward.
Second, Joakim Noah needs to get some time too, even if it comes at the expense of Thomas' spot in the rotation. The rookie from Florida has played only 106 minutes thus far but, believe it or not, he leads the team in PER. At least send him out there and see if it's for real. Maybe his energy can wake up the others.
In the backcourt, things are trickier -- everyone is playing badly. One obvious move would be to yank Sefolosha from the rotation until further notice. This would occasionally result in Deng playing the 2 and Nocioni the 3, hurting the defense, but right now the offensive side is the one in desperate need of help.
But to be honest, these are mild remedies. The one move that would have the biggest impact is doing something -- anything -- to get Hinrich back on track. He's the one who is most off his game right now, and as the guy who has the ball in his hands on nearly every Chicago possession, that's a problem. Worse yet, I'm not sure what the solution would be, and it largely depends on whether you think the problems are physical or psychological.
Even in Tuesday's win, he stood out for his poor play. In the first half he managed the difficult feat of botching a two-on-none break by throwing a pass Noah didn't expect. He didn't get a chance to repeat the effort after the break, as he was yanked a minute into the third quarter and didn't return. Chicago tied its season best with 56 points in the second half; you connect the dots. Hinrich finished with four points and three assists, shooting just 2-for-7.
That has to be keeping Skiles up at night despite the win, especially since there isn't much of a Plan B in the backcourt. If Hinrich and Gordon can't regain their strokes, there's almost no amount of other tinkering that can get this train back on the tracks.
So regardless of whether you think Skiles is motivating his troops or not, you have to admit he's in a rough predicament at the moment. Essentially, his job security depends on his guards starting to make shots that they've spent the whole season missing. And you wondered why NBA coaches don't have long shelf lives.
_________________
"Tubby? Oh yes, Tubby."
|
Login
Register
FAQ
Search
