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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:52 am 
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Seacrest wrote:
The decision not to take the field goal with 6 minutes left cost them another trip to the Super Bowl. Gostkowski didn't blow the game, the great Billy B. did.

So Mike McCarthy deserves little of the blame for the Packers' collapse last year but this one is all on Belichick? :lol:


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:04 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
The decision not to take the field goal with 6 minutes left cost them another trip to the Super Bowl. Gostkowski didn't blow the game, the great Billy B. did.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:05 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
The decision not to take the field goal with 6 minutes left cost them another trip to the Super Bowl. Gostkowski didn't blow the game, the great Billy B. did.

Image



And I just broke down the game tape again from the 2 point conversion attempt.

Frank is still dead wrong.

And Gronk was single covered and WIDE open in the back corner of the end zone.

Image

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:06 pm 
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ZephMarshack wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
The decision not to take the field goal with 6 minutes left cost them another trip to the Super Bowl. Gostkowski didn't blow the game, the great Billy B. did.

So Mike McCarthy deserves little of the blame for the Packers' collapse last year but this one is all on Belichick? :lol:

McCarthy obsession is bizarre.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:19 pm 
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ZephMarshack wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
The decision not to take the field goal with 6 minutes left cost them another trip to the Super Bowl. Gostkowski didn't blow the game, the great Billy B. did.

So Mike McCarthy deserves little of the blame for the Packers' collapse last year but this one is all on Belichick? :lol:



WTF are you talking about?

Belichik ended up with enough chances to kick THREE field goals in the last six minutes and win.

If he had confidence in Brady, he would have kicked the first one and gone for the win later. Say what you want, but the Pats lost because Bill didn't do just that.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 1:51 pm 
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If every coach could use hindsight, of course they would make better decisions. Unless it's basically a coin flip, you go with what the odds/math tells you. Kicking the FG was the wrong decision on 4th and short. Unless you just want to deny statistics and probabilities, that is your answer.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 1:57 pm 
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Trestman wouldn't change things.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:27 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
If every coach could use hindsight, of course they would make better decisions. Unless it's basically a coin flip, you go with what the odds/math tells you. Kicking the FG was the wrong decision on 4th and short. Unless you just want to deny statistics and probabilities, that is your answer.

Going on 4th and 1 was the wrong decision.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:29 pm 
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Arlington Hts Archie wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
If every coach could use hindsight, of course they would make better decisions. Unless it's basically a coin flip, you go with what the odds/math tells you. Kicking the FG was the wrong decision on 4th and short. Unless you just want to deny statistics and probabilities, that is your answer.

Going on 4th and 1 was the wrong decision.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:29 pm 
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Arlington Hts Archie wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
If every coach could use hindsight, of course they would make better decisions. Unless it's basically a coin flip, you go with what the odds/math tells you. Kicking the FG was the wrong decision on 4th and short. Unless you just want to deny statistics and probabilities, that is your answer.

Going on 4th and 1 was the wrong decision.

Simply not true. Get out of the stone age.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:36 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
If every coach could use hindsight, of course they would make better decisions. Unless it's basically a coin flip, you go with what the odds/math tells you. Kicking the FG was the wrong decision on 4th and short. Unless you just want to deny statistics and probabilities, that is your answer.


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Sure.

Just ignore what actually happened after he made the wrong decision.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:42 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
If every coach could use hindsight, of course they would make better decisions. Unless it's basically a coin flip, you go with what the odds/math tells you. Kicking the FG was the wrong decision on 4th and short. Unless you just want to deny statistics and probabilities, that is your answer.


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Sure.

Just ignore what actually happened after he made the wrong decision.

You're looking at this backwards, which is at least logically consistent for you. You don't judge a decision by the end result. A team could theoretically punt on every 3rd down and still win a game. Winning the game wouldn't mean that was suddenly a good decision. You don't have the benefit of hindsight as a coach. The best you can do is know the odds and probabilities of converting and the expected point value of each play, and make the best decision from there. Belichick did that yesterday. You lack critical thinking on this, but you're far from the only one.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:44 pm 
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In the playoffs teams were 13 for 29 or 44% on 4th down conversion so I think he was going against the odds

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:47 pm 
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The Broncos offense was shut down by the Patriots defense. The Broncos had 1 drive over 50 yards.

Take the points. Kick the touchback (it's Denver) and force a punt leading to great field position.

The decision was ridiculously obvious.


Last edited by Arlington Hts Archie on Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:48 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
If every coach could use hindsight, of course they would make better decisions. Unless it's basically a coin flip, you go with what the odds/math tells you. Kicking the FG was the wrong decision on 4th and short. Unless you just want to deny statistics and probabilities, that is your answer.


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Sure.

Just ignore what actually happened after he made the wrong decision.

You're looking at this backwards, which is at least logically consistent for you. You don't judge a decision by the end result. A team could theoretically punt on every 3rd down and still win a game. Winning the game wouldn't mean that was suddenly a good decision. You don't have the benefit of hindsight as a coach. The best you can do is know the odds and probabilities of converting and the expected point value of each play, and make the best decision from there. Belichick did that yesterday. You lack critical thinking on this, but you're far from the only one.


He should have judged the Broncos inability to move the ball in the second half except for one 30 yd run.

Kick the field goal and then trust your defense and HOF QB. He didn't do that, and has no one but himself to blame for it.

He didn't need the benefit of hindsight to make that decision.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:48 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
If every coach could use hindsight, of course they would make better decisions. Unless it's basically a coin flip, you go with what the odds/math tells you. Kicking the FG was the wrong decision on 4th and short. Unless you just want to deny statistics and probabilities, that is your answer.


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Sure.

Just ignore what actually happened after he made the wrong decision.

You're looking at this backwards, which is at least logically consistent for you. You don't judge a decision by the end result. A team could theoretically punt on every 3rd down and still win a game. Winning the game wouldn't mean that was suddenly a good decision. You don't have the benefit of hindsight as a coach. The best you can do is know the odds and probabilities of converting and the expected point value of each play, and make the best decision from there. Belichick did that yesterday. You lack critical thinking on this, but you're far from the only one.


He should have judged the Broncos inability to move the ball in the second half except for one 30 yd run.

Kick the field goal and then trust your defense and HOF QB. He didn't do that, and has no one but himself to blame for it.

He didn't need the benefit of hindsight to make that decision.

^
This guy gets it.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:49 pm 
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Arlington Hts Archie wrote:
The Broncos offense was shut down by the Patriots defense. The Broncos had 1 drive over 50 yards.

Take the points. Kick the touchback (it's Denver) and force a punt leading to great field position.

The decision was ridiculously obvious.



Yes, it was.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:50 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
In the playoffs teams were 13 for 29 or 44% on 4th down conversion so I think he was going against the odds



So much for the math I guess.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:52 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
In the playoffs teams were 13 for 29 or 44% on 4th down conversion so I think he was going against the odds



So much for the math I guess.

No, there are a ton of variables missing from that. Here, start with this:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/83790 ... nts-metric

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:56 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
In the playoffs teams were 13 for 29 or 44% on 4th down conversion so I think he was going against the odds



So much for the math I guess.

No, there are a ton of variables missing from that. Here, start with this:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/83790 ... nts-metric


I'm truly shocked that Walt's single statistic with an extremely small sample size and no consideration for any other variables doesn't give us the whole picture.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:58 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
In the playoffs teams were 13 for 29 or 44% on 4th down conversion so I think he was going against the odds



So much for the math I guess.

No, there are a ton of variables missing from that. Here, start with this:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/83790 ... nts-metric


I'm truly shocked that Walt's single statistic with an extremely small sample size and no consideration for any other variables doesn't give us the whole picture.

I guess this type of math is too advanced for guys like Seacrest, Archie, and Walt. Guys like Frank, you, and I get it though.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:01 pm 
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Kick a field goal and you still need a touchdown, which you still hadn't scored yet against Dinver.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:03 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
I guess this type of math is too advanced for guys like Seacrest, Archie, and Walt. Guys like Frank, you, and I get it though.


:lol:

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:03 pm 
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They scored a touchdown in the 1st quarter


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:05 pm 
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Arlington Hts Archie wrote:
They scored a touchdown in the 1st quarter

So then obviously they had a great chance of scoring a TD on any of the 4th down drives then.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:06 pm 
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Although Belichek obviously lost the game by campaigning for xps to be moved back in the offseason


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:14 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Seacrest wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
In the playoffs teams were 13 for 29 or 44% on 4th down conversion so I think he was going against the odds



So much for the math I guess.

No, there are a ton of variables missing from that. Here, start with this:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/83790 ... nts-metric


I'm truly shocked that Walt's single statistic with an extremely small sample size and no consideration for any other variables doesn't give us the whole picture.

Seacrest wrote:
He should have judged the Broncos inability to move the ball in the second half except for one 30 yd run.

Kick the field goal and then trust your defense and HOF QB. He didn't do that, and has no one but himself to blame for it.

He didn't need the benefit of hindsight to make that decision.



Different variables that Belichick may have thought of, but decided against.

The reality is, had he used our variables, he would be preparing for another Super Bowl today.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:15 pm 
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KDdidit wrote:
Kick a field goal and you still need a touchdown, which you still hadn't scored yet against Dinver.

Score a touchdown and you still need a field goal.

Take the points.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:15 pm 
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KDdidit wrote:
Although Belichek obviously lost the game by campaigning for xps to be moved back in the offseason


1st you didn't know the Pats did scored in the 1st quarter.Then you spell Denver and Belichick wrong...tell us more professor


Image

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Last edited by Walt Williams Neck on Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:17 pm 
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Seacrest wrote:
The reality is, had he used our variables, he would be preparing for another Super Bowl today.


I don't have strong feelings on what he should have done, but making this statement with absolute certainty is incorrect. We have no idea what would have transpired if New England would have kicked the field goal. The Broncos may have ended up winning by three scores. There's no way to tell what "would have" happened.

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