And the next time I say Cub fans define all their players based on their best season I will still hear howls of objection.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

We're looking at his last two seasons here, age 24 and 25. That's over 1300 plate appearances. Probably a pretty good indicator of what he is going to do in 2016 @ age 26.

Come on. What he is saying about previous three years being predictive is not a Cub thing and you know it.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

He's acting like a Cub has an infinite upward arc.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

The only thing that matters when Cubs fans are trying to predict the success of Cubs players is whether they are under contract for the Cubs. There's no consistency other than that.

I would like to know what the Sox fans here dont like about Rizzo?

I think Abreu is a better natural hitter than Rizzo, but not by FAR and I think Rizzo is a FAR better all around player with the glove, base running, durability and a team leader.


Yet, still not sure what the problem is many Sox fans have with Rizzo? Outside of the jealousy factor as he embodies the good guy, Cubs , Broh huggin' good times at Wrigley thing which I know they all despise.

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"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

Couldn't we ask the same question of you and Abreu?

I mean, this is your thread, about Rizzo, that was really about Abreu.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Flat out saying you like Rizzo more than Abreu because Rizzo is white. Are Elmhurst Steve and BIGQUISITOR both your mults?

I dont see that. Rizzo has made the all star team and gotten mvp votes the last two years. Now he's entering what are usually prime years for a baseball player. Ill bet if you ask him, OnePost would expect Rizzo to start slowing down in a few years when he's on the wrong side of 30

I do not believe I have read one Sox fan who said that Rizzo was a bad player.

The only thing I do not like about Rizzo is the uniform he wears. Saying "I would take Abreu on my team over Rizzo" does not make the latter a bad player. On the flip side, there are plenty of Cubs fans who have compliment Abreu as well yet would prefer Rizzo on their team. I would bet not a one of them would be pissed off if Abreu was on their team.

This is one of those rare instances in baseball where these guys are so remarkably similar that you literally could not go wrong if you had either one of these guys hitting in your lineup and playing first base everyday.

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Nope, that's not what I'm doing at all, it isn't even close. I'm saying that if you look at the past two seasons, this is probably the best indicator of what Rizzo is likely going to do in 2016. Then I listed two reasons, one is that he accumulated a significant number of plate appearances in those two seasons, 1300, and the second reason is that those were his age 24 and 25 seasons leading into his age 26 season, so we shouldn't expect any regression because of age.

Actually if I wanted to use this infinite upward arc bullshit that you are hawking, what I would do is say that in 2012 Rizzo had an OBP of .342 and in 2014 he had an OBP of .386, which is an improvement of 12%, so based on this career arc, I can extrapolate that Rizzo will have an OBP of .432 in 2016.

That's not anywhere close to what I am doing. All I'm saying is that Rizzo had an OBP of right around .385 in his age 24-25 seasons, and that's a pretty good indicator that he'll have an OBP of right around .385 in 2016.

JORR the ultimate peddler of bullshit in the Cubs forum. When I read JORR I can't help but think of the awesome Bill James quote: "Bullshit has tremendous advantages over knowledge. Bullshit can be created as needed, on demand, without limit."

That's JORR, the ultimate pusher of pure bullshit.

Frank is spot on ..... the entire debate started over Stoney saying Jose would have a FAR SUPERIOR career... and I think even Frank just admitted they are damn near the same. They are both All star level.Like most I would give Jose the edge in the hit tool over Rizzo, power tool egual, speed Rizzo, Field Rizzo, throw Rizzo but it's 1B so who really cares about runnng fielding or throwing.Rizzo has three advantages... he is part of a better overall lineup (today and last year), he is cheaper now and will be even a bigger bargain after Jose opts out and he is at least 2 years younger.

Based on age and cost I'd take Rizzo but it's so close I'd be happy with either.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

As if no guy in baseball history has ever followed a good season with a not so great one. You're looking at the Cubs through rose colored glasses. That's fine. You're a Cubs fan. But you're the one peddling "scientific" bullshit.

I've never seen Abreu go through stretches where he looked overmatched vs. big league pitching. Rizzo has such stretches all the time. You don't have to look back very far to find them. But I suppose the playoffs don't count either.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Italian

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

this is regular season level arguing and I am still in spring training shape but Rizzo is already well into his 26 year and will be 27 2/3 into the year

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Jose Abreu, from 2014 to 2015.

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

That's certainly an example of a lesser season following a better one, but I'd call it a super season followed by a very good one. Anyhow, I guess Abreu defied One Post's "scientific" modeling.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Yes, prime years are usually 26-29

Uh, so now your argument is that just because something has occurred in the past to some player on some team that it is going to happen to Rizzo in 2016?

JORR predicts that the 2016 World Series will be interrupted by an earthquake because it happened in the past.

Here is what I'm looking at. A baseball player at the age of 24 had an OBP of .386 (.421 vs LPH and .373 vs RHP), this same player had an OBP of .387 at the age of 25 (.409 vs LHP and .378 vs RHP). These OBP numbers were accumulated in seasons in excess of 600 PAs. I'm saying that those numbers are a fairly accurate predictor of how this player will do in his age 26 season as it relates to OBP.

Is this a proven scientific theorum? No, but it is at least using prior performance to try and determine future production. I think is is a better method, than your "a guy in 1915 had a bad season after a good one so Rizzo isn't going to get on base much in 2016" coal car full of bullshit that you're pulling around this thread.

Rizzo has a 1300 PA stretch of killing MLB pitching to the tune of an OPS+ in the 150 range, clearly overmatched. Cubs might have to send him down to fix all the holes in his offensive game.

He left it out because it's irrelevant. To say that Abreu gets on base at a higher clip is flat out wrong. Rizzo draws walks at a rate of 11%, and he gets more HBPs than anybody (30 last season). Come on, man.

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i left it out b/c i wanted to use the same two years both were in the league.

if i use the next 5 years starting today to compare the two it wouldn't be fare as Rizzo very likely outplay Abreu. unless Abreu talks to Melky.

I'm not predicting anything. I'm simply stating the inarguable fact that Jose Abreu has gotten on base in the big leagues at a better rate than Anthony Rizzo.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Except it isn't. Why do you hate facts?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I dont dislike Abreu, so thats the answer. I stated he is a better pure hitter than Rizzo, if thats dislike...well? Not sure what else I can say about the guy....

Rizzo has worked his ass off to become a really good hitter, on any given day can even be better than Abreu, or for stretches...

I recognize, give credit and like Abreu's pure natural ability to hit....can we agree that I actually like the guy as a baseball player?

I dont know Abreu, dont think anyone really does, which to a degree is a detriment for him when comparisons come out, considering Rizzo is the new Peyton Manning (That should get some play)

....and I do think Rizzo is a much better defender and maybe even more dedicated to staying in shape and being prepared.

So....Why dont you like Rizzo?

_________________
"That's what the internet is for. Slandering others anonymously." Banky
“Been that way since one monkey looked at the sun and told the other monkey ‘He said for you to give me your fuckin’ share.’”

That isn't what you said in your prior post. You said Abreu has a better eye, which (using the conventional understanding of the term being ability to draw a walk) isn't true in that Rizzo's walk rate is far superior to Abreu's.

I think what you are saying is that Abreu's ability to get on base in the big league is better than Rizzo. That's probably what you mean to say, but in reality what you are saying is that Abreu's ability to get on base during the prime of his career is better than Rizzo's ability to get on base in his 21-25 year old seasons. For shame that Rizzo is 3% worse than Abreu in that comparison.

JORR also likes to trumpet the fact that Jim Bullinger had more success in striking out MLB hitters than Satchel Paige did.

Oh, also, if we weren't talking about performance for the 2016 season, why didn't you correct my misinterpretation several posts ago? Seems like a convenient oversight on your part, or more likely, just more bullshit.

This is really dumb. A "good eye" is about getting on base. You can either hit your way on or walk your way on. In any case, Abreu has gotten on better than Rizzo. But keep arguing against that nagging fact if you wish.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

given rizzo's whole package (performance, leadership, marketability, future) i don't think anyone in mlb takes rizzo over abreu.

not a knock on abreu. it's just how much rizzo has blossomed.