Now way in hell Atlanta takes McFadden. Leaving aside the issue that they have an OK running back waiting in Norwood, there is no logical basis to believing that they will be OK with Leftwich. He has played significantly worse than Harrington this season, and I think the Jaguars success this year without him takes away any shine he may have once had. He's slow, innaccurate, and injury prone. He's the black Jim Miller! If they don't take a QB, there should be riots.

Did the Vikings pass up Peterson because they had an OK running back?


Edit: Theres no way the Patriots keep that pick. I doubt they will even draft in the first round this year.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I don't think the Falcons could pass on an OT with the problems they had there this year. Norwood has shown some great potential and I think they have a nice tandem at RB again next year with Norwood taking more carries away from Dunn.

Then, I cannot see the Pats taking Mc Fadden with Maroney there. It has been a down year for Maroney because of injury but he has definitely shown the ability to be a feature back.

Kevin Faulk is getting old guys. Why wouldn't the Pats take McFadden? Maroney hasn't been consistent this year at all.
I know...I have him in fantasy.

_________________
@audioidkid

Historically the Pats are one of the most adept spenders in the league when it comes to the cap. I doubt they would keep paying Maroney first round money and then give McFadden top 3 money. It would make more sense for them to trade down and get multiple picks.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

i suppose that makes sense. he's going to be a serious stud imo.
maybe the bears could trade up...
lol..

yeah, that'll happen.

_________________
@audioidkid

No, and they are well on their way to another .500 season with QB questions to settle once again. The Vikings also have one of the better O-lines in the league, while the Falcons are playing with spare parts.

Drafting running backs is like buying rims from a guy on Craigslist. 90% of the time, you don't get what you think you're getting. (complete list of top-10 RBs in the past ten years: Curtis Enis, Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Ron Dayne (11th), Ladanian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson. How many of those guys were or are great? Taylor maybe, James maybe, Tomlinson definitely, Brown maybe (good this year, until the injury, but year three and no real returns on that investment), Peterson maybe but looking positive, if he can stay healthy.)

The other 10% of the time, they might look good, but how much are they improving your performance? How many of those players have won championships? I count one- Jamal Lewis, and that was his rookie season, and that team didn't exactly win on the strength of their superior running attack. It's not out of the question that some others may, but time is ticking for Taylor, LdT, and Thomas Jones, while Brown is seriously injured.

Plus, a running back is a quickly depreciating asset. Look at a guy like Jamal Lewis, who had 3 good seasons and has sucked ever since. Or look at Larry Johnson, who got run into the ground by Herm and wasn't the same all this year. A great QB can be great well into his 30s (you know that as well as anyone). A great running back better start think about his announcing career at 29 or so, even sooner if his coach decides to hand him the ball 370 times in a season. That's an awfully small window.

Besides, if I was Atlanta, and I wanted to immediately improve my running game and ignore the issues at every other position for some strange death-wish type reason, I'd sooner draft an LT like Jake Long than an RB. Build up that O-line into an elite group, and you won't even need an elite RB, plus you'll have more time to throw the ball. And the percentage of big-time line busts is smaller, Robert Gallery to the contrary.

Some good points, although I think you underestimate the RB's you listed. Taylor has been really good for a really long period of time, and would have top 15 all time RB stats if he hadnt had injury problems. Jamal Lewis is still playing well right now for Cleveland. Ricky was one of the best RB's in the NFL when he was motivated, I guess Ditka and the Dolphins just under-estimated his love for weed. Enis, Thomas Jones, Benson, and Dayne have all been legit busts, although there like a 2% chance Benson turns it around in the next 4 years. Reggie Bush, AP, and Ronnie Brown could easily justify their picks. I think RB's tend to be safer bets than QB's, although top linemen are usually the safest picks.

As for Atlanta, I cant argue against taking Jake Long. Any time you can get a Franchise OT, its tough to underestimate the impact there. On the flip side however, if they take McFadden I wouldnt criticize them either, as I think thats a good fit. Dunn is getting old fast, and has already significantly declined, and I am not even remotely sold on Norwood as a #1 guy. Obviously the QB situation sucks too, and they need defensive help for sure, especially if DeAngelo isnt there next year. As with most potential 3-13, 4-12 teams, theres not one position they need to improve to be competitive. My guess is they take a WR at #3, and then get in contact with Marcus Vick's agent to work out a 5 year deal.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I think it would come down to who is considered the franchise player, McFadden or one of the quarterbacks (Brohm, Woodson). IMO, it would be McFadden. I could see someone like Atlanta take the franchise running back and wait for the second or third round (or possibly move into late first round) for their quarterback. Forgive me if my memory isn't right on this, but didn't San Diego take a pass on drafting Michael Vick to get their franchise running back (Tomlinson) and then get their quarterback (Brees) in the second round?

That is true, but waiting for your QB until the second round is especially perilious, and you'd better hope you know what your getting. I don't think any of the guys really jump out at you; Brennan? Ainge? Henne? Booty? If you think Ryan, Brohm or Woodson will fall to round two, maybe you take a flier. Plus, I think you want to avoid being in a KC situation where your QB probably isn't that good, doesn't have much of a pedigree, but you're committed to him for a year or two because he's your draft pick. I'd rather go through that with Brohm than Brennan.

SD also traded down, which was wise. They did the same thing with the Eli pick. But I think that GMs have caught on to where the value is in the draft- it's better to have two low first rounders, in general, than one high first rounder. I don't know if Atlanta can trade down as successfully this time, as "trade down" is accepted wisdom.

One last note: sometimes my posts come off as dickish and overly personal. I apologize for that. I've noticed that rereading some of my NFL posts over the past few days. I value the discussion, and I wouldn't participate if I didn't feel like I got something valuable from it. I just sound harsh sometimes when I disagree.

Going for the ROY sympathy vote now, eh IB?

_________________
The CSFMB: One big Crab Bucket.

NFL Draft Update

1. Dolphins - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU - You still have to believe that even though McFadden is the top player on the board, the presence of Ronnie Brown will mean that the Dolphins grab their biggest need with an elite player. A solid National Title game against an NFL caliber O-line like OSU has would solidify Dorsey as the top defensive player available, a true playmaker, and if he stays healthy, the #1 pick in the draft. He would be the first piece if the Dolphins remodeling this off-season.

2. Falcons - Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas - Are the Falcons in position to pass on this guy? They have Leftwich, who isn't that great, but with it beginning to look like there may be a lack of a franchise caliber QB in this draft, I would be surprised to see the Falcons pass on McFadden. His versatility is unlimited on offense and he can replace an aging Warrick Dunn as an elite game breaker.

3. Patriots via 49ers - Chris Long - DE - Virginia - Long, as I have said for weeks, is extremely versatile on that D-line. If New England keeps that pick and does not trade down with a team like Dallas, then I could see them pulling the trigger on this guy. His size and speed allow him to move around quite a bit in a complex New England defense. Long adds another ferocious weapon to the Patriots, as if they needed one on that side of the ball, too.

4. Jets - Jake Long - OT - Michigan - Long allows the Jets to put three 1st round picks in the last two drafts on their O-line. With a solid RB in Thomas Jones and a young QB in Kellen Clemons, these guys will have a pair of anchor OT's and one of the best young Center's in the game in Nick Mangold. Similar to the Browns, the Jets can use this maximum protection and solid run blocking to make lesser players look better for instant improvement.

5. Chiefs - Sam Baker - OT - USC - Sam has been climbing the list lately. Apparently, many feel that his versatility at either Tackle position makes him a very important asset. Sam can play either side, but he is most likely to wind up at LT for the long term. He is an outstanding Offensive line prospect and would anchor the left side for the Chiefs for the next decade. This is crucial to protect their young QB and $40 million asset named Larry Johnson.

6. Rams - Sedrick Ellis - DT - USC - Sedrick Ellis is probably the best defensive player on the board at this point. He is an explosive player inside and the Rams are a team that appears to have the offense in place when healthy, but they need to add as many defensive playmakers as they can to balance out this football team. Ellis is a guy who can play inside or out depending on your alignment, and who has plenty of pop when he gets where he's going.

7. Ravens - Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College - It pains me to put this guy here, because I feel that after his workouts, his stock will bottom out. But neither Brohm or Woodson appear to be impressing the scouts much and there has been a lot of talk about Ryan. This guy can come in, play behind Boller for another half year to a year, and then be ready to take over the helm in 2009. I don't know how good he'll be, but I, admittedly, can't judge QB's out of college to save my @$$.

8. Raiders - Vernon Gholston - DE - Ohio State - The Raiders have a young, talented offense that lacks wide receivers. This isn't the draft to get them. Most of the O-lineman that can help are better drafted later at this point, and their secondary is among the best in the league when healthy. Of the remaining front seven on defense, Gholston adds a pass rush that the Raiders have been lacking and can also play OLB in a 3-4 setup. Many are calling him the next Will Smith.

9. Panthers - James Laurinitis - LB - Ohio State - The Panthers can't seem to keep Dan Morgan healthy to save their lives, so its time to move on. Jon Beason appears to have been a solid pick in last year's draft and teaming him with the best LB in this year's class can't hurt. Laurinitis can play inside or out if he shows up at 240+, which some say he will. He is a heady player and can pay dividends right away.

10. Bengals - Calais Campbell - DE - Miami - Campbell is the best player on the board on this side of the field and so Cincinnati can't pass on him. They need more playmakers and depending on what happens with Justin Smith, Campbell fits into either scenario. He is a very talented pass rusher and probably a complete scumbag (out of Miami), so he'll be right at home in Cinci.

11. Bears - Brian Brohm - QB - Louisville - Would the Bears pass on a guy like OT Ryan Clady to take their stab on a guy like Brian Brohm? After seeing Grossman and Griese, and wondering what Orton can bring to the table, I'm guessing they wouldn't. A lot can happen from now until then, but if Brohm and Woodson are on the board here, I'm thinking we have to go in that direction, don't we? Other options at #11 are OT Ryan Clady, RB Jonathan Stewart, LB Dan Connor, and WR Malcolm Kelly.

1. Patriots
2. Packers
3. Colts
4. Jaguars
5. Cowboys
6. Chargers
7. Bucs
8. Browns
9. Vikings
10. Steelers
11. Seahawks
12. Saints
13. Giants
14. Redskins
15. Texans
16. Titans
17. Eagles
18. Bills
19. Broncos
20. Panthers
21. Cardinals
22. Lions
23. Bears
24. Raiders
25. 49ers
26. Bengals
27. Chiefs
28. Jets
29. Ravens
30. Rams
31. Falcons
32. Dolphins

AFC Division Winners: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Browns
AFC Wild Cards: Jaguars, Steelers

NFC Division Winners: Packers, Cowboys, Bucs, Seahawks
NFC Wild Cards: Vikings, Saints

AFC Champion: Patriots
NFC Champion: Packers

Super Bowl Champ: Patriots

NFL Draft Update

1. Dolphins - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU - At this stage, he is still the likely pick here. Again, they need the best defensive player they can get their hands on. They just took a QB in the 2nd round, so that's not happening and unless they plan on giving $60 million to another RB in McFadden or they trade down, I see them staying put here and taking the top defensive player on the board. That being said, don't be surprised if Dorsey is ineffective in the Title game or hurt, if Chris Long moves to #1.

2. Falcons - Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas - Whoever the new coach is here, be it Singletary, Parcells, or Cowher (the most likely candidates), they all believe in a strong running game and this team will take the best player on the board at any position. That is McFadden and he can make people forget Michael Vick real fast. Falcons can't pass here.

3. Rams - Chris Long - DE - Virginia - They may consider Jake Long with the issues they are having with Orlando Pace from a health point of view, but if they feel Pace makes too much to bring in another anchor, then they need to take the best defensive player on the board and Long is that guy. He is a huge pass rusher and can have a Mario Williams type impact for any team needing a pass rusher.

4. Ravens - Jake Long - OT - Michigan - The Ravens are also having health problems with their superstar LT and they need a solid ground game for McGahee to run behind. If they think Boller is the solution here, then the Ravens will anchor their line with Long, and with last year's first rounder Ben Grubbs, and a sometimes healthy Jonathan Ogden (if he doesn't retire), their O-line just got really, really good.

5. Jets - Sedrick Ellis - DT - USC - The Jets may consider Sam Baker here, but I'm not sure they would do that. If Jake Long was on the board, then maybe, but Baker I'm not so sure about. I think the Jets will take the best defensive player they can get their hands on since this is a weak year for WR's and this is too early to take Laurinitis or Jenkins. Ellis is the pick here with his versatility as a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 DT.

6. Chiefs - Sam Baker - OT - USC - The Chiefs seem like they are willing to move forward with Brodie Croyle, so the next issue is to address an offensive line that protects their $50 million asset, Larry Johnson. Sam Baker provides instant impact at the tackle position and would be a great fit for KC due to his ability to protect a young QB's backside and being a quality run blocker.

7. Bengals - Vernon Gholston - DE - Ohio State - Gholston is playing in the Buckeye state already and the Bengals may need to replace Smith on the outside if he leaves after this year. Whether he leaves or not, Gholston provides excellent pass rush and the strength to hold up against the run. Expect a freakish workout at the combine that will shoot him into the top 10 and possibly into a Bengal uniform.

8. Patriots via 49ers - James Laurinitis - LB - Ohio State - The Patriots LB's are aging. Bruschi and Seau can't play forever and they will need some added versatility in that backfield. Laurinitis is a great fit for them as he can play inside or outside. This pick would make a ton of sense for the Patriots and James would become the future behind a talented defensive front.

9. Raiders - Ryan Clady - OT - Boise State - Clady is a true RT. The Raiders O-line is not good and they need as much help protecting a young developing JaMarcus Russell as they can get. Clady is a great run blocker and his size will allow him to play on that right side. The Raiders will need to run the ball to take pressure off of Russell, who will probably see a boatload of pressure in 2008 until he proves he can deal with it.

10. Bears - Brian Brohm - QB - Louisville - If the Bears get McNabb in a trade, I would dump Orton and Grossman and overhaul the position. McNabb has a couple years left and having his replacement developing on the roster and learning from Brian Griese and Donovan McNabb wouldn't hurt his development. They could also take Matt Ryan or Andre Woodson here, but with it looking more and more like these QB's may be on the board, can they afford to pass? Without McNabb, Grossman goes and a rookie is brought in to compete with Orton for the #2 job (which the rookie should win by day 2). Griese would start and the rookie could take that job between weeks 6-8.

Additional Bear Thoughts:

G.Wolfe:
...just don't hand him the ball between the tackles from your own three yard line against the best run defense in the league behind a porous offensive line. Its almost like Ron Turner is setting this guy up to fail. He's a third down back. Put him in the game on 3rd down and let him block, run screens, and run draws. Maybe the occasional toss sweep. Motion him out of the backfield and let him come back on bubble screens. This is not rocket science.

Devin Hester
When Hester is in the game, make him run routes. If he has to run the same play 100 times each day at practice to remember one play, make him run it. Tell him what route he's running in the huddle. Whatever. But stop running bubble screens and reverses to this guy. Everyone knows its coming whenever he's on the field. He was most productive last night running big boy routes.

Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson was running slow. He did not run with burst indicating either he is playing hurt, or has no heart while playing behind a horrible offensive line. If it's a lack of heart, he has answered the question about whether he can be a feature back on this team or not. Even if the Bears fire Turner this year, Lovie will bring in another offensive coordinator who runs the ball and we have no running back. I would try and convert Wolfe into a slashing slot receiver for next year, bring in a running back like Justin Fargas, move AP back to #3 and use a two headed monster of Benson and Fargas to run the ball. Then I would try and trade a 2nd round pick for Donovan McNabb or draft a QB. More on this later...

Bears Defense:

I rest my case on this. I have been saying all year that the Bears defense and Bob Babich's play calling have been most affected by the loss of Vasher. The inability of Manning Jr. to do anything (he blew the tackle on that 71 yard slant pass) and the need to start a rookie 7th rounder at CB resulted in the Bears dummying down their defense and not being aggressive so they could provide help to McBride on that side of the field and not have to man him up.

Vasher returns and the Bears become a blitzing beast again with Urlacher and Briggs have excellent games and their DT's penetrating because they can't be double teamed up front with the LB pressure. The result was they pretty much shut down the top rushing offense in the league, like I said they would with 8 in the box and Vasher back. But as always, the offense continued this 3 and out circus until the defense clearly got worn down. If you give somebody 20 punches without swinging back, eventually they are going to hit you in the face once or twice.

Vasher was the difference. When the Bears got back to what they wanted to do, they forced turnovers, got to the QB, got interior line penetration and stuffed arguably the best RB in the game, just like they did with LT and Larry Johnson in weeks 1 and 2 when Vasher was healthy.

MNF Announcing:

Tirico and Jaworski had some great lines last night. Most notably, Tirico referring to the Bears offense as simply "awful", and Jaws saying that the next thing you are going to see is "Love Smith vomiting on the sideline."

Classic...

Mariotti:

No team is better off losing. Mariotti is an idiot. The difference between the 8th overall pick and the 12th is simply more options when you pick. Its no guarantee anyone is going to pan out. Its always better to win your games.

I hate that projection BD. If the Bears get a top 10 pick and cannot get one of the three top OT I will be very upset.

Ron Turner:

Turner deserves plenty of the blame and his job should be on the line. His judgment has been questionable, to say the least this year. His decisions have led national media to justifiably call our offense a "High School offense" and "awful". The players are undisciplined. Hester still doesn't know where to line up half the time. We continue to pound the ball between the guards every game for 1 and 2 yard gains and then wonder why we have a 2.2 yard per carry average over the last three or four games. We are not running off the secondary with Hester and Berrien to open up the middle of the field with our TE's and Muhammad. These are common sense approaches to using these players that we haven't even dabbled with yet. We are not using our weapons, uniquely gifted as they are, to the best of our abilities. Players are being asked to do things they clearly are not suited for and the offensive production is reflecting that.

Turner is very much to blame and he does not appear to be doing anything to disprove that theory.

Who's the best saftey in the draft...Bears should take him...The most obvious problem with the Tampa-2 is run stopping when the saftey can not tackle...see Indy last year when sanders was out...see bears last year and this year when brown is out.

Wk 1 LT 17 rushes...25 yrds
Wk 2 LJ 16 rushes...55 yrds

Wk 3 no mike brown Barber III 15 rushes...102 yrds

Saftey help will hide all other defensive issues...Keeps Bears in every game...Rd 2 - Rd 4 O-line

If Lance Briggs Leaves....:

I believe the loss of Briggs will be tough because Jamar Williams hasn't shown me a lot yet. Maybe that will change with real game experience, but right now, it appears to be a big step backward. But I think this team needs to let Darwin Walker go to free up cap room, let Briggs go because he would be too expensive to resign, let Ricky Manning Jr. go because he is too limited for the money he is making, and let Archuleta go because he blows. Addition by subtraction.

Our projected two deep in 2008 on that side of the ball would be:

DE: Adawale Ogunleye, Alex Brown, Mark Anderson, Dan Bazuin
DT: Tommie Harris, Dusty Davoracek, Anthony Adams, Isreal Idonije

LB: Brian Urlacher, Hunter Hillenmeyer, Jamar Williams, Michael Okwo, Brendan Ayanbedajo

CB: Charles Tillman, Nathan Vasher, McBride, Graham
FS: Danieal Manning, Brandon McGowan
SS: Mike Brown (bring him back), Payne

I think this is a very solid two deep at the NFL level. There is excellent push from the D-line if our DT's stay healthy and we allow Mark Anderson to play his 3rd down specialty role next year. Urlacher and Hillenmeyer are still very solid LB's at the 2nd level. Tillman and Vasher are outstanding CB's that can produce a lot of turnovers (which win ball games) and McBride has plenty of experience going into next year in a Nickel role. Manning is in his 3rd year, so its put up or shut up time and Mike Brown gets one more shot (because we have no better option right now) with Payne waiting in the wings to be groomed as his replacement long term because we saw flashes out of that kid as a monster hitter.

That is very capable of being a top 10, possibly top 5 defense if they can stay healthy.

Just my opinion. Addition by subtraction on this side of the ball. Time for some blood letting.

One version of the 2008 team (not a final plan):

In one offseason, the Bears can do the following:

QB: Sign Daunte Culpepper and draft Brian Brohm in the 1st round. Let Grossman go via free agency and cut Orton.
RB: Sign Justin Fargas
WR: Let Bernard Berrien go in free agency and cut Rashied Davis, then draft a pair of WR's with our two 3rd round picks.
TE: Nothing.
OL: Cut Fred Miller and let Rueben Brown go. Add an OT in the high 2nd round.
DL: Let Darwin Walker go.
LB: Let Briggs go and add a LB in the 4th round for depth.
CB: Let Ricky Manning Jr. go.
FS: Nothing.
SS: Let Adam Archuleta go.
K/P: Nothing

Starting lineup 2008:

QB: Daunte Culpepper
RB: Justin Fargas/Cedric Benson
FB: Jason McKie
WR: Devin Hester, Muhsin Muhammad, 2 rookies/Mark Bradley
TE: Greg Olsen/Desmond Clark
OT: Rookie, John Tait
OG: Josh Beekman, Roberto Garza
C: Olin Kruetz

DE: Adewale Ogunleye, Alex Brown/Mark Anderson
DT: Tommie Harris, Dusty Davoracek
LB: Brian Urlacher, Hunter Hillenmeyer, Jamar Williams
CB: Nathan Vasher, Charles Tillman, Trumaine McBride
FS: Danieal Manning
SS: Mike Brown

K: Robbie Gould
P: Brad Maynard

KR/PR: Devin Hester

Don't forget Okwo. The bear were very high on him in training camp. However, I have heard nothing but rave reviews about Williams out of the last 2 training camps and have yet to see anything I like on the field.

Darren McFadden sweepstakes:
If the Tuna is smart down there in Miami, he will auction off the #1 pick to the highest bidder as the Darren McFadden sweepstakes. Let's say Atlanta has the #2 pick, which they may. The other teams that may pick fairly high that would be very interested in McFadden are the Jets, Bengals, Patriots, Raiders, and the Bears. If the Dolphins can stay in the top 10, add a player like Vernon Gholston or James Laurinitis to that defense, pick up next year's first from a team that could be picking high again next year, like Oakland, and maybe add another mid round pick(s), are they not much better off? If I was them, I would try and drive the price up and then settle for a 2nd rounder in 2009 from Atlanta to swap picks. Let the Falcons take him at #1 and then take Dorsey at #2, while acquiring a probable high 2nd rounder next year that you could work into another mid level 1st rounder if packaged with your pick.

I don't think the Bears need to draft a back. Get a solid veteran FA to tandem with Benson. I fully believe Benson will only perform if pushed, but he will perform.

I'm more in your boat, but, at least for comparison, McFadde is closer to Adrian Peterson (MIN) than Reggie Bush. He is a big back with blazing speed, the ability to run people over, and is very shifty in the hole. Bush is merely a scat back at this point.

Bears offenese doesn't have playmakers.....that's reason enough for me to examine this closer.

They were high on getting Devin Hester and Greg Olsen more involved in the offense too. How did that one work out?

Okwo is the defense's answer to Garrett Wolfe - an undersized project that was drafted WAY too high in the 2007 NFL Draft.

I've taken craps bigger than both of those guys.

_________________
Disclaimer: Most of my posts are not suitable for work or home viewing.

The name's Rockmore. Beef Rockmore

From what I've seen in the Free Agent List a good draft is a must this year. Can the Bears grab one of those big name OLinemen?

(1) Patriots
2. Colts
3. Jaguars
4. Cowboys
5. Chargers
6. Packers
7. Steelers
8. Seahawks
9. Giants
10. Bucs
11. Browns
12. Redskins
13. Vikings
14. Titans
15. Eagles
16. Saints
17. Texans
18. Bears
19. Cardinals
20. Lions
21. Panthers
22. Broncos
23. Bills
24. 49ers
25. Bengals
26. Chiefs
27. Raiders
28. Jets
29. Ravens
30. Falcons
31. Rams
(32) Dolphins

AFC Division Winners: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers
AFC Wild Cards: Jaguars, Titans

NFC Division Winners: Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks, Bucs
NFC Wild Cards: Giants, Redskins

AFC Champion: Patriots
NFC Champion: Cowboys

Super Bowl Champ: Patriots

1. Dolphins - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU - Dorsey remains the #1 overall pick assuming he is healthy and has a solid game against OSU. He is simply too big and too explosive to not be the top pick for a defense that is reeling right now. They need a playmaker on that side of the ball and Dorsey's versatility provides that instantly for this team.

2. Rams - Chris Long - DE - Virginia - McFadden may be the best player in the draft or at least the best overall talent, but with Miami and St. Louis both set at RB, he continues to fall. The Rams take Chris Long because they need a stud on defense and Long provides that. He is a big, strong DE who can rush the passer and has the size and technique to hold up against the run. Long is an immediate impact player and can be a phenomenal DE from the edge.

3. Jets - Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas - McFadden is a lock here. The Jets will dance for joy that this guy has slipped to them with the #3 pick. McFadden is an explosive addition to the Jets offense and the Jets will ride a young, talented O-line and a two headed RB tandem of Thomas Jones and McFadden like the Vikings are with their two backs. He is simply too good to pass up unless you have a young, franchise back, and the Jets do not.

4. Falcons - Jake Long - OT - Michigan - The Falcons will consider a QB here, but ultimately this team has so many holes they need to take the top player available. Long is a franchise LT prospect and can anchor that side of the line for the next 10 years. The overhaul in Atlanta won't happen overnight, but building a strong front line is a step in the right direction, so that whoever is at QB has some protection on their blind side.

5. Chiefs - Vernon Gholston - DE - Ohio State - The Chiefs defense is beginning to take shape. They are young and they are aggressive, but with a solid running game, a developing playmaker at WR, and a young QB in the fold, the Chiefs need that vaunted defense to push them over the edge. Gholston is either a super strong DE or a super big OLB. Either way, he can be a disruptive force in KC on what is turning into a very solid defense.

6. Raiders - James Laurinitis - LB - Ohio State - The Raiders are looking for the best defensive player available. They can't bolster their O-line unless they reach a bit, so why not add Mr. Versatility on defense in Laurinitis. James' Dad looks like he belongs in the Black Hole fan section with his "Animal" shoulder pads and the Little Animal would be right at home in a rebuilding defense.

7. Ravens - Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College - Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm, Andre Woodson, etc. Who knows? The bottom line is they are going to go QB if they are outside the top 5, more than likely. These three QB's will jockey for position all offseason leading up to the draft. Whoever emerges as #1 is probably on his way to battle Kyle Boller and Troy Smith to be the starting QB in Baltimore.

8. Patriots from 49ers - Keith Rivers - LB - USC - Rivers is a guy that is shooting up the boards and New England's pick from San Fran is shooting down the boards. These two could slam into each other if Rivers, a big OLB, can have a good lead up to the draft. They need to replace him their aging LB's in Seau and Bruschi and you have to believe that's the goal of this pick after losing their other 1st round pick.

9. Bengals - Sedrick Ellis - DT - USC - The Bengals have to add beef up front on defense. That makes Ellis the likely pick here. Ellis is a high character guy and that is exactly what the doctor ordered for the NFL's version of the Miami Hurricanes. Ellis can play all over the D-line in a pinch, but I expect he'll be an impact DT in his first year in Cinci.

10. Broncos - Kenny Phillips - FS/SS - Miami - Phillips adds quality playmaking ability into the secondary for the Broncos. They already feature one of the top CB tandems in the league, so adding a guy who could be groomed to replace John Lynch or start at FS would give the Broncos one of the most talented secondaries in the league. The problem is never talent in Denver. Its usually consistency. But hey, Phillips is better than nothing here...

12. Bears - Andre Woodson - QB - Kentucky - As was stated earlier, the QB jostling will shake itself out leading up to the draft. I expect that the Ravens will take who they feel is the top guy, and for right now, we'll default to the experts and say that guy is Matt Ryan. Before the Bears pick, the Panthers have the pick and they could easily take the 2nd guy available with Delhomme being a huge question mark, so we'll say Brohm is that guy. For argument's sake, the Bears are left with Woodson, but more important to know, is that they are left with the the last remaining QB of that 1st tier group. Other options here are Malcolm Jenkins from OSU who can play Safety, WR Malcolm Kelly out of Oklahoma to replace Muhammad this year or next, Ryan Clady out of Boise State to replace Fred Miller at RT, Jeff Otah out of Pitt who is an enormous RT prospect and can also replace Fred Miller, WR DeSean Jackson as another weapon on the outside, WR Limas Sweed out of Texas who is a Muhammad with speed if he's recovered from his injury, or RB Felix Jones out of Arkansas if he goes pro.

Because without an O-Line - the Bears passing game will continue to struggle. Here's another reason - let's talk first round 'HITS' vs. 'MISSES' with the teams that drafted these players:

2007
1 1 2 2 Calvin Johnson Lions Georgia Tech
2 1 9 9 Ted Ginn Jr. Dolphins Ohio State
3 1 23 23 Dwayne Bowe Chiefs Louisiana State
4 1 27 27 Robert Meachem Saints Tennessee
5 1 30 30 Craig Davis Chargers Louisiana State
6 1 32 32 Anthony Gonzalez Colts Ohio State

2006
1 1 25 25 Santonio Holmes Steelers Ohio State

2005
1 1 3 3 Braylon Edwards Browns Michigan
2 1 7 7 Troy Williamson Vikings South Carolina
3 1 10 10 Mike Williams Lions USC
4 1 21 21 Matt Jones Jaguars Arkansas
5 1 22 22 Mark Clayton Ravens Oklahoma
6 1 27 27 Roddy White Falcons Alabama-Birmingham

2004
1 1 3 3 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals Pittsburgh
2 1 7 7 Roy Williams Lions Texas
3 1 9 9 Reggie Williams Jaguars Washington
4 1 13 13 Lee Evans Bills Wisconsin
5 1 15 15 Michael Clayton Buccaneers Louisiana State
6 1 29 29 Michael Jenkins Falcons Ohio State
7 1 31 31 Rashaun Woods 49ers Oklahoma State

2003
1 1 2 2 Charles Rogers Lions Michigan State
2 1 3 3 Andre Johnson Texans Miami (FL)
3 1 17 17 Bryant Johnson Cardinals Penn State

2002
1 1 13 13 Donte Stallworth Saints Tennessee
2 1 19 19 Ashley Lelie Broncos Hawaii
3 1 20 20 Javon Walker Packers Florida State

2001
1 1 8 8 David Terrell Bears Michigan
2 1 9 9 Koren Robinson Seahawks North Carolina State
3 1 15 15 Rod Gardner Redskins Clemson
4 1 16 16 Santana Moss Jets Miami (FL)
5 1 25 25 Freddie Mitchell Eagles UCLA
6 1 30 30 Reggie Wayne Colts Miami (FL)

2000
1 1 4 4 Peter Warrick Bengals Florida State
2 1 8 8 Plaxico Burress Steelers Michigan State
3 1 10 10 Travis Taylor Ravens Florida
4 1 21 21 Sylvester Morris Chiefs Jackson State
5 1 29 29 R. Jay Soward Jaguars USC

Regarding the Offensive line, I'll give you 2 names to watch for - both of Carolina's OT (Travelle Wharton and Jordan Gross) are free agents, and Wharton is considered to be a solid LT. He'd be a guy I'd love to sign, and then Tait moves back to the right side. Gross will probably get signed by Carolina, which would increase the chance of getting Wharton for reasonable money.

Under my scenario, Wharton is a similar player to Tait - not great, but a solid LT, so we can probably stay the same on that side, and move Tait to replace Fred Miller on the right side where he has played previously.

From todays' Charlotte Observer:
Gross joined the Panthers during 2003 and Wharton during 2004. Retaining Gross is believed to be the team's top priority among the potential free agents. The Panthers will hold exclusive negotiating rights with their players until just before free agency starts during March.
"Things look like they're moving in the right direction," Gross said.
"I haven't worried about it any other week, so I'm not really worried about it right now."
The Panthers are likely to have an interest in retaining Wharton and some other potential free agents, and Wharton said staying put will be his priority.
"I'm a Carolina guy so that's definitely (the first choice) for me," he said.
But the salary cap often prevents teams from making every move they want during free agency.
"That's something I'll have to deal with when the time comes and sit down with my family," Wharton said.
"But, for right now, I'm just trying to focus on Week 17."

Here's the Charlotte Observer's Blog:
Tackle Jordan Gross: By far, the team’s most significant free agent. A strong effort will be made to keep Gross. But he could have a high value on the open market. Keeping him could be an issue because the Panthers also are likely to be looking for a left tackle.
Tackle Travelle Wharton: He’s been an adequate left tackle, but Wharton never will be a Pro Bowler. Carolina’s first concern is keeping Gross on the right side and that will take a lot of money. Because he plays the left side, Wharton could get some decent offers on the open market and the Panthers might look elsewhere for a left tackle.

Here's another off-season scenario:

How about this?

At QB, they let Grossman walk and draft Brohm or Woodson. Griese enters 2008 as the starter and plans on turning the reigns over to the kid by 2009 or late 2008 if it falls apart. I think McNabb costs too much. I could see the team bringing in a Culpepper on a one year deal and letting Orton go.

At RB, we sign a guy like Justin Fargas to give us a Thunder and Lightning tandem in the backfield. The decreased job security will hopefully make Benson more productive. Fargas has 1,000+ already and is averaging 4.5 yards/carry in 2007. He's a speed back all the way with breakaway speed. Peterson is then allowed to move to special teams and we make a decision on Wolfe as a 4th RB based on camp.

At WR, Berrien is allowed to walk and they let Rashied Davis go. Then, we hope that Hester can figure things out as a #1, or at least a reliable deep threat capable of running off coverage for the TE's. Muhammad restructures and comes back for one last season as a possession receiver and a coach on the field. We draft a WR in the 3rd round to develop as a #4/#5 WR and bring in a guy like Drew Carter who is speed, speed, speed, all day long. Let Carter battle Muhammad and Hester for position in the WR rotation and we rely on our TE's as our major weapons in 2008.

At TE, we let Gilmore go (he's a free agent) and we sign a #3 TE on the cheap if Gilmore gets to much on the market. Olsen and Clark remain major weapons in this offense.

At OL, we let Rueben Brown retire and let Fred Miller go. We bring in a guy like Wharton on the left side and draft a Guard in the 2nd round (could be the 1st or 2nd best in the draft). We have Wharton and Tait on the edges, with Kruetz inside. Garza is one guard and Metcalf, Beekman, and the rookie battle it out for the LG position. We either sign a new backup Tackle or we deal with St. Clair for another year (I'd rather find a replacement because we know what we've got here).

At DE, we are fine. Maybe we move one of the big 3, but I would keep them and give Alex Brown his job back. Let Anderson play situational pass rusher and keep him with as many reps as the other guys so he doesn't whine. Bazuin needs to become the #4 DE and show something next year.

At DT, Darwin Walker can be let go. He's not worth $5 million a year if Davoracek is a starting caliber DT anyway. Let Anthony Adams be the backup DT and let Idonije continue to be a pass rusher inside. Tommie Harris should be back healthy next year and we should be off and running. No major additions are needed here, but we can bring back Toeaina and Kennedy and let them battle for Walker's spot.

At LB, Briggs is gone. Urlacher and Hillenmyer are back. Jamar Williams played like crap early in the year, but he played very well last week. Perhaps another offseason under his belt and he'll be reasonably good. I don't expect Lance Briggs, but the WLB is the easiest position to excel at in this defense. Okwo will step into Williams role and of course we'll keep Ayanbedajo and Rod Wilson for special teams duty. I think we need to use the other 3rd round pick on a LB to compete with Okwo for some extra depth back there.

At CB, Tillman and Vasher are studs. Let them be and hope they stay healthy in 2008. McBride got enough PT and experience, and showed enough to take over the Nickel role at discount prices. Adios Manning Jr. and your stupid contract. Graham is the 4th CB and we look to add more depth here in the back of the draft, a la Graham and McBride.

At S, Archeleta is let go. Manning is retained as the starting FS and Brown is brought back for another year as the SS. Payne is the backup SS and is being groomed to replace Brown as early as 2009 if Brown remains healthy, or 2008 if Brown goes down for the 5th consecutive year. McGowan can come back as the backup FS and if Manning goes down, our first plan is to shuffle Brown to FS and move Payne to SS (I really like Payne's aggressiveness). We can add depth here in the back of the draft.

K/P Leave them alone.

Done.