Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
How are you betting this race, JORR, with the two favorites getting even odds?
Like I said, I think Mohaymen is the better horse, but he's a legit Kentucky Derby contender. I think most knowledgeable people don't believe Nyquist will get the mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. I'm not sure Doug O'Neill believes that, but he's a pretty sharp guy. He's looking at a $1 million bonus for winning this race. It's obviously not the Kentucky Derby, but it's doable, especially if the objective for Mohaymen isn't to really win this race. Who knows what happens a month from now in a 20 horse field. I think Nyquist is going to be doing everything he can to win tomorrow. With Mohaymen I'm not sure that's the case. If these two get hooked up and banging on each other it could compromise their chances in Louisville. Since I think Mohaymen has the better chance for the big one, I think he's the one more likely to be backing off here. I'm going all in on Nyquist. I may even try to get lucky with an exacta that doesn't have Mohaymen in it. That's a longshot play though.
The Spiral is the race I really like. I think that one will come down to Kasseopia and Surgical Strike. I think Surgical Strike will probably be the better betting value at post time but I'll have to see how it shakes out.
I was wondering what horses you would throw in with your tri and superfectas, JORR, if you're placing these bets?
Would you bet any horses "show" in this race, considering they're getting 15-1 to 30-1 odds to win? Would seem like a good payoff, maybe 5-1 to hit one?
Well, regardless of any other horse's odds in the win pool, If Nyquist and Mohaymen run 1-2 the show prices figure to be relatively low. Of course, you can do the math at post time if you have access to the show pool betting amounts. The other horses that seem to have the best chance to hit the board are Fellowship and Takeittotheedge.