Here's your contenders.

2016 Santa Anita Derby (G1)
1 1/8 m, Dirt; 3 M

Denman's Call D. O'Neill
Iron Rob G. Papaprodromou
Kasseopia H. Motion
Uncle Lino G. Sherlock
Smokey Image C. Gaines
Exaggerator J. Desormeaux
Mor Spirit B. Baffert
Danzing Candy C. Sise Jr.

I'm not sure where you saw that Kasseopia was probable for that race but it would be pretty interesting if Motion came right back with him in seven days. He was disappointing in the Spiral as he flattened out badly in the stretch. The wind/weather was odd that day and the race was run on rubber, so those could be considerations. Maybe the owners are desperate to get him in the Derby and are going to push the horse to find the points. But I really have to doubt he is going to run again so soon.

Danzing Candy is the darling of speed figure guys. You're going to hear how he is the "fastest horse". Maybe he is. His race in the San Felipe is as impressive an effort as any horse of this generation has produced to this point. The wiseguys are gonna bum rap Nyquist because his numbers aren't eye-popping. He's like the pitcher who is 16-0 with a 4.00 ERA. I would argue that Nyquist has run every race as fast as he needed to.

One thing I know for sure. Baffert/Stevens were not trying to win with Mor Spirit in the San Felipe. They came pretty damn close anyway. That race (and the gallop out after the wire) was used to set the horse up for longer distances. He's gonna be all systems go this Saturday. I'm sending it in on Mor Spirit and an ice cold exacta Mor Spirit on top of Danzing Candy.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Nyquist beyer in the Florida Derby 94 ......Pool 4 Final odds Mo' Tom 17-1

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

JORR, thanks for sharing. Your comments are insightful as always. Like your perspective on the "wise guys", though I suspect they haven't done well either in these prep races.

They were rapping Nyquist before the Florida derby for not being up to the 1 1/8 mi. distance. And look what happened, he's a three or four-length winner. Don't know what Moyhamen's problem was. Maybe he didn't like the ride having to go wide out of the gate. Or maybe the horse was hurt.

I like Danzig Candy in the San Anita, but I'm not sure of the talent he beat in the San Felipe. They weren't bums but not G1 talent either.

Hasn't Baffert cleaned up at the San Anita? He of course had California Chrome last year. I need to take a closer look at Mor Spirit.

American Pharoah was Baffert's horse. Art Sherman has California Chrome. I could never say American Pharoah is a better horse than Chrome. Baffert is lighting his horses up in a way that I'm sure an old guy like Sherman is not. I'm not saying Sherman is racing Chrome "cold", but probably as close as you get at this level in this day and age. California Chrome is one hell of a racehorse.

Like I said before the Florida Derby, I was pretty sure they weren't really going to send Mohaymen in that spot. They've got bigger fish to fry. When I say they weren't trying to win, I don't mean they didn't want to win the race, just that winning wasn't the primary objective. I would compare it to a pitcher working on his change-up in spring training where he throws no fastballs. He'd still like to win the game, but he's not doing everything he can to win it. I think they purposely wanted him four or five deep throughout the race. Yeah, he got floated out wide in the first turn but the jock never looked to get closer to the rail. Still, I don't think they were happy with the way he finished and a horse coming off a maiden win going by him like he was tied to a fence. But I wouldn't dismiss Mohaymen's Derby chances off that race. He's already shown that he's one of the stronger horses in this crop.

If Danzing Candy wins the Santa Anita Derby he should be the Kentucky Derby favorite, but it will probably be Nyquist.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Two horses you didn't mention as contenders for the Derby are Gun Runner (Louisiana Derby) and Baffert's Cupid (Rebel Stakes). Gun Runner might be the "Real Deal Holyfield."

In any case, it's shaping up to be a strong field for Arlington in May.

I'd keep an eye on Mo Tom. He got a bad trip in the Louisiana Derby. Might have kept up with Gun Runner if he wasn't checked wide coming home.

And as you said, JORR, he did well in the San Felipe even though he may not have been trying to win. Showed good closing speed.

JORR, what's your read on Smokey Image?

I like this horse, but he did not have a good showing in his last race. Still, I think he should hit the board Saturday to get 2nd or 3rd place.

I don't think he's as classy as some of these horses.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Bluegrass PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/BlueGrass16.pdf

Wood PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Wood16.pdf

SA Derby PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/SADerby16.pdf

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Reviewing the program sheets (Thanks again to SPMACK), it's hard to imagine there being any surprises in this race. It will come down to Mor Spirit, Danzig Candy and Exaggerator.

Because of his good post draw, Danzig Candy should take an early lead and hold on. Mor Spirit might challenge him down the stretch, but my guess is it will not be enough. I'm looking for a fast early pace, with Danzig Candy coasting to the finish line for the win.

Only upset chances are with Exaggerator and maybe Smokey Image, who has a good late kick.

Overall, not the best race to bet on from an odds standpoint, but it might be the easiest so far to handicap.

I think Mor Spirit gets it done on Saturday. too much speed in the race to see Danzig Candy get another 1:11 for 3/4's - Iron Rob is going out and pushing him.

Mor Spirit got checked hard last race and still made up ground on Danzig Candy.

The horse that somewhat intrigues me seeing him go two turns in Denman's Call. Thoughts on him?

Speed figures are not bad, but he drew the rail when there's quicker horses in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th posts.

Plus, the horse that beat Denman's Call in the last race in a duel, Iron Rob, is in this race. The two wildcards I figure for this race are Smokey Image and Iron Bob. Iron Bob has the speed to be on the pace.

Rain in the forecast tomorrow @SA.

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Let's hope it won't be like last year's Preakness. That was "Wizard of Oz" weather.

Who's the best "mudder" in the field?

Answering my own question, Mor Spirit and Exaggerator have both run in the mud. Mor Spirit came up 2nd, while Exaggerator won his race.

This is more of a reason for me not to pick Mor Spirit to win: he won't be on the lead, so Stevens will have to deal with mud in his horse's face for much of the race; and apparently the horse did not like the mud last time.

The Wood Matt King Cole here is the speed

The Bluegrass My Man Sam 2nd to my Wood pick


Santa Anita Lottsa speed Mor Spirit turns the tables

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Big A sloppy as is Santa Anita

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Brody's Cause getting it done! I'm glad I didn't give up on him. Fat exacta too!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Hit the 2-4 with exacta box 2,3,4. Yes!!!

Nice. Exaggerator was large today. I'm not sure what to think about the slop races today. They crawled in the Wood. I don't think Mor Spirit loved the going but he never quit. I woulda coulda shoulda had a huge day. Still, not a bad Saturday so far and big action at Yonkers coming up!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

hit the 3rd race exacta at Keeneland Brody was the 2nd best horse that ran today

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Very impressed by Exaggerator today. He's my Derby favorite. Should easily be able to handle the 1 1/4 distance.

Who do you think was the best? Exaggerator? I think the prevailing expert opinion is that the California horses are better as a group than those that have been based elsewhere. It's hard to take a whole lot away from that race considering the track conditions. I still think both Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit are better than Exaggerator.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

She always looks good. I'll say this though, she better watch out for Rachel's Valentina in Kentucky. That one ran a big figure yesterday. Cathryn Sophia should cakewalk the Eight Belles.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

that race took a lot out of Valentina

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.