That's a school of thought. If you're a figures guy there are reasons to doubt him. But the fact is he's gone as fast as he's needed to every time.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I did a lot of work on this race last night. It's a very tough field to handicap. I love Brody's Cause as an individual. The 19 post doesn't make me very happy though. He's going to have a lot of horses to pass and even if he does that, running down Nyquist is going to be a monumental task. Still, I'm going to structure my bets so if he wins I make a lot of money.

The more I look at it though, the horse who looks like everything is setting up perfect for him with the draw, his training pattern, etc. is Gun Runner. I've said before, I think horse for horse, his stablemate Creator is the stronger animal. But this is the Derby. You have a 20 horse field and it takes a certain type of horse to shine in that environment. With all the speed on the outside Gun Runner figures to be perfectly placed and his running style is great for this race.

You have to go back a long way to find a horse who came directly off a Louisiana Derby victory to win in Kentucky. In fact, I'm not sure it's ever been done. But I was reading an article that went through all these past scenarios, and that no horse has ever done X and no horse has ever done Y, and the writer concluded that looking at this year's field, no horse could win the Kentucky Derby.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I agree with your analysis, JORR. Gun Runner should be expected to hit the board now with the draw of the five post.

What a screwed-up post draw this was. The two horses I'm most keen on, Mor Spirit and Danzig Candy, get the 17 and 20 posts, ugghh. The good news with Danzig Candy, though, is that he has the speed to get to the lead right away and can coast from there. I would say this hurts Mor Spirit's chances some, unless he ,too, can sprint to the lead before the 1st turn.

I was watching a handicap video last night by a guy who really knew what he was talking about. His two favorites were Nyquist and Exaggerator, but liked Mor Spirit, Gun Runner and even Danzig Candy to a degree. He said that Danzig Candy will be leading at the far turn, but it's anyone's guess how far he can go from there. He certainly benefits from the fast track and should not tire as easy as he did in the mud at Tampa.

I want to like Brody's Cause, but I'm not seeing it in the speed figures. His best speed rating is below the average winning speed. Add that his post draw was not favorable, and he's a toss.

Everyone is dumping on Destin, but I don't agree with the reasons. Is Pletcher's record at the Derby really relevant, or is it more about the horse itself? I liked what I saw in this horse in his last race, in which he finished with a strong time and seemed to just be putting into higher gear at the finish line. Considering his six post draw, I like him even more.

People are questioning coming in off an 8 week layoff. But Pletcher does well with horses off 60 days. I think he'll have the horse ready. The long gap wouldn't be my concern, rather it would be the horse's relative inexperience. The Kentucky Derby is no place for a horse to be learning on the fly.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I'm on Outwork as a long-shot. Destin just edged him out in the Tampa Bay Derby, after he was leading down the stretch by a length at one point. After that, he won the G1 Wood Memoria on an off-track.

He seems to have very good pedigree for this race, coming from two Belmont Winners, Indian Charlie on the sire side and Empire Maker on the dam side, not to mention a place-finisher in the Kentucky Derby again in Empire Maker. He won't even blink with this 1 1/4 mi distance, and should just be eating track in the final 1/8 mi.

And to boot, 2011 Kentucky Derby winner, John Velasquez, is his HOF jockey. He opted for Outwork over Destin in the Pletcher camp.

You like him, JORR? Or does him being Pletcher trained put you off?

Pletcher is the best in the business. His lack of Derby success doesn't bother me. I'm not super keen on this horse in this spot though. He's even more inexperienced than Destin. I believe time will show Outwork to be the better of the two horses.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

The case for Outwork

"This is a serious horse who has made a remarkable progression with each race. He’s one length (second in Tampa Bay Derby) from being unbeaten in four starts, and the victorious jockey (on Destin) that day acknowledged Outwork was on the worst part of the track. Outwork has the speed to stay out of trouble in a huge field, and the muddy Wood shows he’ll handle about any type of surface. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez picked this inexperienced horse to ride in the Tampa Bay Derby over high-quality stablemate Destin, whom he also rode, because of his belief in Outwork’s potential. The racing gods owe Mike Repole, who owns Outwork and campaigned his sire, 2-year-old champion Uncle Mo, who was scratched the day before the 2011 Derby with what was described as a mysterious liver ailment."

outwork barely beat a maiden in the Wood!

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Trying to rain on my party? Fair enough.

But as the expression goes, no one remembers who came in second.

First, I believe in Velasquez's judgment that he feels Outwork is a better horse than Destin. Second, it was an off-track at the Wood, but it does concern me that Outwork's time was two seconds slower than Exaggerator's who also ran on an off-track in the San Anita.

IMHO, Outwork is worth a look because of his breeding, his speed-style that will keep him on the pace, his HOF jockey who has won at Churchill before, and trainer, Pletcher, whom I don't see as a negative in this race. As I said, he's my long-shot, not my favorite.

I'm trying to go with my intuition more this time around, as I did with Creator, and I do like Mor Spirit, Danzig Candy, and this horse, Outwork, whatever that's worth.

The race right after the Tampa Derby a $20,000 claimer had a faster time than Destin

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Just for fun, I'll bet a $1 tri-fecta box, Danzig Candy, Mor Spirit, and Outwork. Who knows, maybe I'll win the lottery.

I figure that combination would be at least at 200-1 pay-off and probably closer to 500-1.

I'll probably do the same.

_________________
@audioidkid

3,5,9 Box
3,11,13 Box
5,11,13 Box
11,13,14 Box
15,17,20 Box
11,13 Box

and a few to win outright @ $1.0

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@audioidkid

who does Eddie O like

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

http://www.danonymousracing.com/kentuck ... very-race/
Most peeps are going for Nyquist.

_________________

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHFnUm64p_8


JORR what post was Street Sense....enough said

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

NY Post Handicapper likes Nyquist, Moyahmen, Gun Runner and Exaggerator in that order.

I'm keying on the Beyer Speed figures, which favor Destin, Danzig Candy, Mor Spirit, and Nyquist along with Exaggerator and Outwork as second tier choices. Moyhamen, Gun Runner and Brody's cause are all said to lack top-tier speed.

My three tri-fecta bets with be the above chalks, one for the speed and one for intuition.

GL ALL!!!

NY Times on Outwork from yesterday in their Kentucky Derby preview article:

"The Wood winner has been training lights out since arriving at Churchill Downs. He could certainly hit the board."

And on Mor Spirit:

J.D.: Here’s your winner: He’s finished one or two in all of his races. Hall of Fame connections, nice price, why not?

M.H.: I nearly picked him to win — until he drew Post 17, where no horse has ever won this race from. I still believe the California horses are the superior bunch, so I’m making him my third choice.

It is bad karma to bet on a horse honoring the Nazification of the name of a proud city of Poland.

Gdansk, forever!

Remember the Battle of Grunewald which united the heritages of Regular Reader and good dolphin

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

If I'm German and Polish, does it make it ok then?

Reading some chatter about Suddenbreakingnews and Mo Tom. Both had blistering final workouts along with Danzig Candy. They say horses that don't have top times in the workouts have no chance. Not sure about Mo Tom after Gun Runner beat him by 5 at Louisiana, but SBN deserves another look if he can stay close to the pace.

From my guy...he's been around the business his whole life end is now an owner of a successful little thoroughbred.


Nyquist
Sudden breaking news
Creator
Whitmore

_________________

No.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Looking at the Arkansas Derby, I would not take Creator or Whitmore now. Creator finished the 1 1/8 mi. race way too slow on a fast track at plus 1:50.

Coming in second, Suddenbreakingnews was flying in the end. Could be a 3rd or 4th, but not 1st or second tomorrow. Not enough speed in the Arkansas Derby, but his Chruchill workouts say otherwise. Who knows?

Isn't the 20th position death to Danzig Candy's chances of winning?

No, he'll be jumping to the lead right away and will stay there until the far turn.

I'd like to know Lani's last 1/16 fraction time in the UAE Derby before dismissing him. The horse tripped out of the gate and still won, coming from three lengths behind down the stretch.

He's said to be a temperamental horse that's grumpy in the morning. But he's had the best prep for the Kentucky Derby Distance, already going and winning at 1 3/16 mi.

Last comment I'll make is that Moyhamen should compete hard. If you compare how he ran at the Holy Bull to the Florida Derby, the difference is night and day.

I'm hoping he's in bullet-form again and will bet him to win along with Danzig Candy and Outwork.

GL again all. Signing off.

Mo Tom $10 wp
Mo Tom & Oscar Nominated 2 exacta box
Mo Tom Oscar Nominated Gun Runner 1 exacta box


good luck

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Happy Derby Day, boys! Good luck out there!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

back attcha Spmack must have lost his ass once or twice....very quite

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.