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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:13 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
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Hatchetman wrote:
you know some guys are just unlucky. there is one guy in 500 that will be terribly unlucky. maybe he's the guy.



Nobody has ever been "unlucky" for five straight seasons.


That's why Frank called him an outlier. He rarely gives up a lot of runs but only seems to win when he gives up 0.



Because he usually makes a bad pitch in the highest leverage situation. That's something truly great pitchers like Kershaw and Bumgarner don't do, and on the rare occasions they do, their stuff is overwhelming so they can get away with it more often than someone like Quintana.


Those pitchers don't go out knowing if they give up 2 runs they will probably lose. The guy has given up 1 run or less 35 times in his career. His run support in his losses is awful. Kershaw has received 52 runs of support in his 11 starts and fewer than 3 runs in only 3 starts.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:20 pm 
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Give me a rotation full of guys that will give up 2 runs or less 60% of the time (1 run or less 26%) and more than 4 runs 10% of the time and my team would probably win the World Series every year.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:22 pm 
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It's funny that we argue that wins for pitchers don't matter when in fact wins for the team are really the only thing that matters. So if we look at a team's record in games in which a pitcher starts, that would probably be the most relevant stat.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:26 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
It's funny that we argue that wins for pitchers don't matter when in fact wins for the team are really the only thing that matters. So if we look at a team's record in games in which a pitcher starts, that would probably be the most relevant stat.


It's not that simple. Some pitchers have a 5 ERA but have winning records. Then you have a guy like Quintana that everything outside or Wins and Losses says he is a great pitcher. His career 3 ERA is good enough for a losing record though.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:26 pm 
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why is it that hitters are irrelevant?

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:29 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Today's lament about poor Jose Quintana and his lack of run support came from none other than my guy Kap. Can't it just be that some guys just pitch well enough to lose?

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:29 pm 
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No it's not that simple, and I get it. But you understand that we all argue about stats and streaks and comparables, when in the end, the winning the game is the only thing that matters.

If the Sox aren't winning games in which Quintana pitches, then it doesn't matter how good he is. You'd be better off with Jason Marquis 2004 Red Bird style.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:42 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
why is it that hitters are irrelevant?



By talking about pitchers we are, in effect, also discussing hitters. One man's "run support" is another man's ERA.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:43 pm 
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hitters should get wins and losses.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 2:45 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
hitters should get wins and losses.


Any given hitter is fractionally as important as a starting pitcher.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:17 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
hitters should get wins and losses.


Any given hitter is fractionally as important as a starting pitcher.


Thank you.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:49 pm 
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Nas wrote:
He's given up 12 runs in 5 losses and 3 runs in 5 wins.

End of argument. Any manager would take such a pitcher as a # 2. What's his average IP?

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:53 pm 
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JORR, if I told you a pitcher had given up 1 run or less in 35 starts, 2 runs or fewer in 80 starts and this same pitcher has given up more than 4 runs only 14 times in 133 starts, you would assume that at worst this pitcher is an all star and probably an elite pitcher. You wouldn't assume that he has a losing record for his career and less than 40 wins. You also wouldn't believe that a guy with a 2 ERA with 10+ starts is a .500 pitcher.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:54 pm 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
Nas wrote:
He's given up 12 runs in 5 losses and 3 runs in 5 wins.

End of argument. Any manager would take such a pitcher as a # 2. What's his average IP?

At least 6 innings every start

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:54 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
you know some guys are just unlucky. there is one guy in 500 that will be terribly unlucky. maybe he's the guy.



Nobody has ever been "unlucky" for five straight seasons.


That's why Frank called him an outlier. He rarely gives up a lot of runs but only seems to win when he gives up 0.



Because he usually makes a bad pitch in the highest leverage situation. That's something truly great pitchers like Kershaw and Bumgarner don't do, and on the rare occasions they do, their stuff is overwhelming so they can get away with it more often than someone like Quintana.

That's an interesting argument I have seen you make before.

So....you wouldn't bet on Quintana, then?

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:54 pm 
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Nas wrote:
JORR, if I told you a pitcher had given up 1 run or less in 35 starts, 2 runs or fewer in 80 starts and this same pitcher has given up more than 4 runs only 14 times in 133 starts, you would assume that at worst this pitcher is an all star and probably an elite pitcher. You wouldn't assume that he has a losing record for his career and less than 40 wins. You also wouldn't believe that a guy with a 2 ERA with 10+ starts is a .500 pitcher.


You can have Quintana. I'll take Aaron Sele.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:55 pm 
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Nas wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Nas wrote:
He's given up 12 runs in 5 losses and 3 runs in 5 wins.

End of argument. Any manager would take such a pitcher as a # 2. What's his average IP?

At least 6 innings every start

That's what I thought.

God, in the game against the Yankees, he made three bad pitches. Sox couldn't score. Q gets the loss.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:56 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
JORR, if I told you a pitcher had given up 1 run or less in 35 starts, 2 runs or fewer in 80 starts and this same pitcher has given up more than 4 runs only 14 times in 133 starts, you would assume that at worst this pitcher is an all star and probably an elite pitcher. You wouldn't assume that he has a losing record for his career and less than 40 wins. You also wouldn't believe that a guy with a 2 ERA with 10+ starts is a .500 pitcher.


You can have Quintana. I'll take Aaron Sele.


I'm calling bullshit on this one. Aaron Sele was all promise & little delivery. A guy begging to be overpaid.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:57 pm 
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formerlyknownas wrote:

So....you wouldn't bet on Quintana, then?



I guess it depends on what the number was. I don't hate Quintana. He's just not a winner. He's certainly not great.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:57 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
JORR, if I told you a pitcher had given up 1 run or less in 35 starts, 2 runs or fewer in 80 starts and this same pitcher has given up more than 4 runs only 14 times in 133 starts, you would assume that at worst this pitcher is an all star and probably an elite pitcher. You wouldn't assume that he has a losing record for his career and less than 40 wins. You also wouldn't believe that a guy with a 2 ERA with 10+ starts is a .500 pitcher.


You can have Quintana. I'll take Aaron Sele.

Aaron Sele was pretty good, I and I used to wish the Sox would get him....he dodged George Bell, too. Anyway, I was always surprised that his numbers weren't better.

Still, Sele played on teams with real offenses.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:58 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
JORR, if I told you a pitcher had given up 1 run or less in 35 starts, 2 runs or fewer in 80 starts and this same pitcher has given up more than 4 runs only 14 times in 133 starts, you would assume that at worst this pitcher is an all star and probably an elite pitcher. You wouldn't assume that he has a losing record for his career and less than 40 wins. You also wouldn't believe that a guy with a 2 ERA with 10+ starts is a .500 pitcher.


You can have Quintana. I'll take Aaron Sele.


LOL! You are a stubborn guy.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 3:58 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:

So....you wouldn't bet on Quintana, then?



I guess it depends on what the number was. I don't hate Quintana. He's just not a winner. He's certainly not great.

I wonder if they did what they did to James Baldwin and dropped him to # 4 if his win total would increase. They ain't got anyone to be a # 2 or # 3, though.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 4:00 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
JORR, if I told you a pitcher had given up 1 run or less in 35 starts, 2 runs or fewer in 80 starts and this same pitcher has given up more than 4 runs only 14 times in 133 starts, you would assume that at worst this pitcher is an all star and probably an elite pitcher. You wouldn't assume that he has a losing record for his career and less than 40 wins. You also wouldn't believe that a guy with a 2 ERA with 10+ starts is a .500 pitcher.


You can have Quintana. I'll take Aaron Sele.


I'm calling bullshit on this one. Aaron Sele was all promise & little delivery. A guy begging to be overpaid.



Sele has a .570 winning percentage in over 300 starts. He received an inordinate amount of "run support" throughout his career. I don't think Sele was a great pitcher. The point I'm trying to make is that if there is a guy out there who somehow has his team score six runs every time he steps on the mound, and that goes on season after season, at some point, I'm not going to argue with that magic or whatever the fuck it is. And I'd say the same about Quintana in reverse.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 4:05 pm 
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In the baseball world of JORR the only stats that matter for a pitcher is W and L.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 4:07 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
You can have Quintana. I'll take Aaron Sele.


I'm calling bullshit on this one. Aaron Sele was all promise & little delivery. A guy begging to be overpaid.



Sele has a .570 winning percentage in over 300 starts. He received an inordinate amount of "run support" throughout his career. I don't think Sele was a great pitcher. The point I'm trying to make is that if there is a guy out there who somehow has his team score six runs every time he steps on the mound, and that goes on season after season, at some point, I'm not going to argue with that magic or whatever the fuck it is. And I'd say the same about Quintana in reverse.


Sele has a ERA of 4.61 and a WHIP that never went anywhere near 1.2 in any season (usually 1.5+). He was just like Frank Tanana (iirc), an average at best pitcher for 30 starts and good for two others. He missed no bats and like you said, received an inordinate amount of run support. I wouldn't even credit him for "magic". I really think the writers always saw his promise, the story of a farm boy plucked from Minnesota and just lazily kept writing the story lines to match the myth.

He aspired to be Bob Welch, a more even trade for Quintana imo.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 4:10 pm 
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Nas wrote:
In the baseball world of JORR the only stats that matter for a pitcher is W and L.


I don't discount it. Hell how many guys did you play with that just somehow found a way to be that "ok" guy that kept your teams hanging around to be able to win the less than bright light games all the time. It was posted above, but James Baldwin for a couple of years that just seemed to embody "that" guy.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 4:18 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
Nas wrote:
In the baseball world of JORR the only stats that matter for a pitcher is W and L.


I don't discount it. Hell how many guys did you play with that just somehow found a way to be that "ok" guy that kept your teams hanging around to be able to win the less than bright light games all the time. It was posted above, but James Baldwin for a couple of years that just seemed to embody "that" guy.


That's fine but a guy like Quintana should be an exception to the rule. Just like Sale to a certain extent. The Sox offense hurts their records. Sale is a top 5 pitcher but he's only won 14 games once.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 4:25 pm 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
Nas wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Nas wrote:
He's given up 12 runs in 5 losses and 3 runs in 5 wins.

End of argument. Any manager would take such a pitcher as a # 2. What's his average IP?

At least 6 innings every start

That's what I thought.

God, in the game against the Yankees, he made three bad pitches. Sox couldn't score. Q gets the loss.

You want Quintana starting Game 2 of ALCS or WS? I don't .

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 4:26 pm 
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Nas wrote:
That's fine but a guy like Quintana should be an exception to the rule. Just like Sale to a certain extent. The Sox offense hurts their records.


That he's always been a 5.2-6.2 inning, low K guy until this year always had him safely within the rule for me. This year, if his start & workload holds, we'll be in agreement.

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PostPosted: Tue May 31, 2016 5:19 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
Nas wrote:
That's fine but a guy like Quintana should be an exception to the rule. Just like Sale to a certain extent. The Sox offense hurts their records.


That he's always been a 5.2-6.2 inning, low K guy until this year always had him safely within the rule for me. This year, if his start & workload holds, we'll be in agreement.



He's having his best year and it still ain't that great.

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