Any way you slice it, a guy who makes 350 big league starts and posts a .570 winning percentage is a successful guy and he didn't just "get lucky".

Tanana was a better pitcher than Sele. He came out of the box like a killer. Then he got hurt and became a real pitcher. His numbers would look better than they do if he hadn't stuck around about five years too long, but even in decline he was often effective.

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JORR is Chris Sale Kerry Wood or a top 5 pitcher and arguably the most valuable player in baseball?

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Sale is a great pitcher so far. He's also got a winning percentage over .600.

Kerry Wood was a near great pitcher. He just didn't last. He's a special guy. Like Ryan with less of a career. There aren't many starting pitchers who struck out more batters per 9 innings than Wood.

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Sale has only won 14 games once and was a sub .500 pitcher a couple years ago. The Sox offense sucks and hurts their pitchers.

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Great pitchers don't average 13 wins/year.

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Of course the shitty offense doesn't help them. But it's not the radical effect you seem to think. Sale has still managed to post a .617 percentage with the same shitty offense that supports Quintana. That's because he's a better pitcher than most guys he faces and the fraction of a run average offense is meaningless in the face of a superior starting pitcher.

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In this era there may be some that do.

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That's because he's better than Quintana and gives up .5 a run less per game. In 2012 Sale won 17 games with a 3.05 ERA. The following year a 3.07 ERA was good for 3 games under .500. The next season a 2.17 ERA was only good for 12 fucking wins. He's given up more runs than Quintana this year but has been fortunate the Sox offense hasn't sucked as much when he's on the mound.

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Are you saying Quintana is better than Sale this year.

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They've been pretty much the same. Sale has allowed more runs and had a little trouble with the long ball. He's pitched 6 more innings but hasn't given up as many hits. Outside of wins and losses you would struggle to find a huge difference between them.

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Joe Blanton outpitched Jake Arrieta and Scott Kazmir? Or...something? How does this work?

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Do you really not understand how it works? If Joe Blanton and Jake Arrieta are the starters in a ballgame and Blanton gets the win, he outpitched Arrieta.

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Who did Blanton outpitch? Did Arrieta even pitch? How does one judge pitchers with no decisions in your world?

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Don't be purposely obtuse. I said if Blanton and Arrieta start a ballgame. Do I have to explain I'm talking about the same ballgame? If Blanton gets the win, he outpitched Arrieta. Let's not even get into the fact that Blanton had to face the mighty Cub offense while Arrieta got to face the Dodgers. There is actually over a run difference in average offense between the two teams, but clearly where each team plays its home games is a factor in that.

But if you're specifically talking about last night's game, you know Blanton didn't start the game. Decisions for relief pitchers are relatively meaningless. For a closer a decision of any kind is terrible. I want my closer to have no decisions at all. No starter received a decision in last night's game. Neither Kazmir nor Arrieta pitched well enough to win or poorly enough to lose.

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The more you try to explain your stance, the dumber it sounds...honestly.

If you choose this route...there is no consistent way for you to judge pitchers not receiving a decision in any game.

I don't know your exact confidence in analyzing player success in a game...but I know I can tell you the better pitcher within a specific game or for a long period of time without hoping there were 'decisions' assigned. Baseball is a game of plays and results... and we have ways to judge pitchers...and all players...based on the things they can control. You hate the isolation of the game. That is fine when discussing team success. Once you look at one pitcher on a 25 man roster...you simply cannot judge what he did based on what his 24 teammates failed to do.

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You simply have to have a large enough sample, just like with any other statistic.

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W-L is not completely meaningless because its true that some pitchers are better in tight situations and some pitchers always give up 1 more run than the other guy (regardless of what that run number is)


But its not the total and complete picture of a pitcher's success like Rogue and JORR seem to believe. either.

Its really valuable to look at over a career. Not so much month to month or even half to half.

And I've never made any other argument. But let's not limit that to W/L record. It's not really valuable to look at anything in baseball over a short stretch. It's a game of time and repetition. You could argue that Tyler Saladino was the best player in baseball last night. For whatever that's worth.

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The problem with W and L being the only stats that matters for a pitcher is you put yourself in a box that makes it hard to get out of. Sale was a total of 7 games over .500 (36-29) in his 3 seasons before this one. That would mean that lots of pitchers are/were better than him despite his other stats and the eye test telling us he's top 5 in baseball.

When it comes to a guy like Quintana those 80 starts of 2 runs or less should have been good enough for 50 wins. Unfortunately he didn't even win half those games.

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Oh I disagree or maybe you're misunderstanding what I said. You can certainly look at a pitchers whip over a 2 month stretch and surmise whether he's pitching well or not.

Who has ever said that it's the "only stat that matters"? But it's an important stat with value. If we were judging starting pitchers and we could only look at a single number, W/L record (given a large enough sample) is going to tell you more about a guy than anything else.

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I don't think that's necessarily the case. Sure, a low WHIP is evidence of a guy dominating hitters, but it doesn't tell you what he did when the game was on the line.

Look, I have seen the majority of Quintana's career starts. I know exactly what he's all about. He's not a bad pitcher. But he inevitably gets to a crucial point in a game where he has to make a pitch and he can't. And the six innings leading up to that moment where he amassed the numbers that make Nas say he is a great pitcher are rendered meaningless.

His line might be 6-1/3, no runs, two hits, no walks. That's a good WHIP. There's a guy on the other team that is shutting down the White Sox. (That may or may not be easier to do. Definitely easier for most of Quintana's career, but some people are calling Quintana "great". If you're really great, a shitty offense isn't holding you down to such a degree.) So now Quintana walks his first batter. Man on first, one out, Sox lead 1-0. Chances are good that runner is going to score and Quintana gets a no decision or maybe a loss. It doesn't make him a "bad" pitcher. His WHIP is still going to be low. He just isn't close to great.

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Usually. Quintana is probably the one (or at least the biggest) outlier in this. He is probably the one guy over the last few seasons where you could honestly say he has pitched better than his career record shows.

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What about the Great Shelby Miller?

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Because that appears to be the only stats that matters to you. You consider Quintana to be a losing pitcher. If you didn't watch Sox games I'm pretty sure you wouldn't think as highly of Sale. IMO it's been easier for their opponents to shut down a shitty Sox offense the past 5 years. That may be a large enough sample size. It shouldn't be because Sale and Quintana have pitched way better than their records indicate.

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For that year

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He is a losing pitcher. I'm not sure how you could argue with that fact. It's even worse, because lefthanders overall throughout baseball history are winners.

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Because all of his numbers say he should have more than 38 wins. He would be a #1 on some teams. His 38-39 record would probably means he should be a #5.

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Yeah, and my wit and charm say I should be banging six supermodels.

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But my point is that you can have a very average...or even below average...pitcher on a Bronx Bombers type team easily be over .500 for 5 or 6 consecutive seasons. The offense scores so many runs, no matter the opposing pitcher, that this average pitcher will be gifted wins.

Now how do you compare him to a pitcher that is just barely over .500 W-L on a non-playoff contender, and who gets no run support.

You look at other statistics like ERA, FIP, WHIP, K/BB, etc.

Why not just start there? You have access to that information from the beginning. It doesn't need to be a "tie breaker." In fact, it overrules W/L simply because a pitcher can only account for how he handles the other team's 9. He cannot lift his own team's bats on his shoulders and carry them.

Simply put...if a pitcher on my team gives up 2 runs every 9 innings and goes 0-33 on the year, he is still a Cy Young candidate. And possibly a Cy Young winner.

Then he needs to demand a trade.

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