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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 9:01 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Usually. Quintana is probably the one (or at least the biggest) outlier in this. He is probably the one guy over the last few seasons where you could honestly say he has pitched better than his career record shows.

JORR is pretty adamant in Jose Quintana not being good...being a "losing pitcher."

This only enhances my view... which seems to be the accepted view in 2016 and onward.

Side note...

I had to explain SLG% to my dad yesterday...and he said "I don't see the point - why not just use BA?"

I wanted to hit him.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 9:04 am 
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IMU wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
W-L is not completely meaningless because its true that some pitchers are better in tight situations and some pitchers always give up 1 more run than the other guy (regardless of what that run number is)


But my point is that you can have a very average...or even below average...pitcher on a Bronx Bombers type team easily be over .500 for 5 or 6 consecutive seasons. The offense scores so many runs, no matter the opposing pitcher, that this average pitcher will be gifted wins.

Now how do you compare him to a pitcher that is just barely over .500 W-L on a non-playoff contender, and who gets no run support.

You look at other statistics like ERA, FIP, WHIP, K/BB, etc.

Why not just start there? You have access to that information from the beginning. It doesn't need to be a "tie breaker." In fact, it overrules W/L simply because a pitcher can only account for how he handles the other team's 9. He cannot lift his own team's bats on his shoulders and carry them.

Simply put...if a pitcher on my team gives up 2 runs every 9 innings and goes 0-33 on the year, he is still a Cy Young candidate. And possibly a Cy Young winner.

Then he needs to demand a trade.


The guy you describe has never existed. Just show me one starting pitcher with 250+ career decisions and a losing record that you would call "good".

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 9:05 am 
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IMU wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Usually. Quintana is probably the one (or at least the biggest) outlier in this. He is probably the one guy over the last few seasons where you could honestly say he has pitched better than his career record shows.

JORR is pretty adamant in Jose Quintana not being good...being a "losing pitcher."

This only enhances my view... which seems to be the accepted view in 2016 and onward.

Side note...

I had to explain SLG% to my dad yesterday...and he said "I don't see the point - why not just use BA?"

I wanted to hit him.


As of today Quintana is a losing pitcher. That is indisputable.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 9:05 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The guy you describe has never existed. Just show me one starting pitcher with 250+ career decisions and a losing record that you would call "good".

This is a fair point.

Stop fucking judging Quintana, or any other pitcher, until they have 250 goddamn decisions then, yeah?

That wasn't tough.

Cubs will trade you Hendricks, a winning pitcher, for Quintana, a losing pitcher, right now. Should be an easy decision for you.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 9:29 am 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The guy you describe has never existed. Just show me one starting pitcher with 250+ career decisions and a losing record that you would call "good".

This is a fair point.

Stop fucking judging Quintana, or any other pitcher, until they have 250 goddamn decisions then, yeah?

That wasn't tough.

Cubs will trade you Hendricks, a winning pitcher, for Quintana, a losing pitcher, right now. Should be an easy decision for you.


GM JORR would want a lot in return for this losing pitcher.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:06 am 
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Nas wrote:
IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The guy you describe has never existed. Just show me one starting pitcher with 250+ career decisions and a losing record that you would call "good".

This is a fair point.

Stop fucking judging Quintana, or any other pitcher, until they have 250 goddamn decisions then, yeah?

That wasn't tough.

Cubs will trade you Hendricks, a winning pitcher, for Quintana, a losing pitcher, right now. Should be an easy decision for you.


GM JORR would want a lot in return for this losing pitcher.


Only because I know I could get it. Dumbfuck LaRussa gave away the house for a 17-game loser. How is that working out?

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:18 am 
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A look at their game logs would make Shelby a terrible comparison to Quintana. A pitcher that gives up 1 run or less in 26% of their starts and 2 runs or less in 60% and 4 runs or less in 90% of their starts would be more valuable than a guy who mixes great starts with absolutely awful performances.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/887 ... son=2016_2

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/9176/gamelog/

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:22 am 
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Nas wrote:
A look at their game logs would make Shelby a terrible comparison to Quintana. A pitcher that gives up 1 run or less in 26% of their starts and 2 runs or less in 60% and 4 runs or less in 90% of their starts would be more valuable than a guy who mixes great starts with absolutely awful performances.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/887 ... son=2016_2

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/9176/gamelog/



Miller allowed two or less in 2/3 of his games last year. But he wasn't a good pitcher. You thought he was because of what he allowed. The fact that nearly every guy he faced on the same day, in the same park, with the same weather, the same hitter's background, and the same plate umpire pitched better than he did gave you the real answer. But don't feel bad, LaRussa was fooled too.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:29 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
A look at their game logs would make Shelby a terrible comparison to Quintana. A pitcher that gives up 1 run or less in 26% of their starts and 2 runs or less in 60% and 4 runs or less in 90% of their starts would be more valuable than a guy who mixes great starts with absolutely awful performances.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/887 ... son=2016_2

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/9176/gamelog/



Miller allowed two or less in 2/3 of his games last year. But he wasn't a good pitcher. You thought he was because of what he allowed. The fact that nearly every guy he faced on the same day, in the same park, with the same weather, the same hitter's background, and the same plate umpire pitched better than he did gave you the real answer. But don't feel bad, LaRussa was fooled too.

Miller clearly lost something last year. His ERA jumped a full run and a half in the second half last year. Its not like ERA couldnt have told you he was struggling.

For every Shelby Miller there is a Ted Lilly (".500 pitcher" who suddenly becomes a "winning pitcher")


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:30 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
A look at their game logs would make Shelby a terrible comparison to Quintana. A pitcher that gives up 1 run or less in 26% of their starts and 2 runs or less in 60% and 4 runs or less in 90% of their starts would be more valuable than a guy who mixes great starts with absolutely awful performances.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/887 ... son=2016_2

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/9176/gamelog/



Miller allowed two or less in 2/3 of his games last year. But he wasn't a good pitcher. You thought he was because of what he allowed. The fact that nearly every guy he faced on the same day, in the same park, with the same weather, the same hitter's background, and the same plate umpire pitched better than he did gave you the real answer. But don't feel bad, LaRussa was fooled too.

And most of those came in the first half of the year, when he was having a fantastic year.

First 17 starts: 108 IP, 2.07 ERA, .584 OPS. His record was 5-4, but more importantly his team was 9-8. That seems hard to believe when you're only giving up 2 ER per 9 IP.

Remaining 16 starts: 96.2 IP, 4.10 ERA, .746 OPS. His record was 1-13. More importantly his team was 2-14.

Overall, last year he wasn't that great. But was he awful and deserving of 17 losses? No. He had the worst offense in the league.

Shelby Miller was a winning pitcher on the 2015 Cubs.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:34 am 
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IMU wrote:
First 17 starts: 108 IP, 2.07 ERA, .584 OPS. His record was 5-4, but more importantly his team was 9-8. That seems hard to believe when you're only giving up 2 ER per 9 IP.


It's not hard to believe when he's a fucking loser. :lol:

Seriously, I think a lot of your viewpoint (and Nas') is informed by living your entire lives in an era of unprecedented offense. The baseball you know is expecting a team to be able to score six at will and if they don't the poor pitcher didn't get "support". But that isn't how baseball has been throughout most of its history. Guys allow two and lose all the time. They're not as good as guys who allow one and win.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:44 am 
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Except you believe that a guy who gives up 5 and wins is just as good as a guy who gives up 1 and wins.

And look at the runs scored per game since 2010. I believe I'm well acclimated to the current offensive climate. Unless you also discount runs scored as some sort of crazy advanced statistic.

I'm not like you old-timers...I can and have adapted to society's changes.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:49 am 
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IMU wrote:
Except you believe that a guy who gives up 5 and wins is just as good as a guy who gives up 1 and wins.


Sometimes he is. Unless you believe that scoring conditions are the same for all games.

A good comp for Quintana is Joel Horlen. Look him up. I'm sure you'll see his numbers and think he was a lot better than he really was.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:51 am 
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His statistics tell you exactly how good he was. If we disagree on what the numbers mean, there is no discussion to be had.

I would just tell you what the numbers are. And you seem to have already looked at those.

Numbers are an exact representation of plays / results. There is no analysis required. You're comparing numbers and stating "based on things this player can control, this is how well he did, outside of team success."

It is as simple as it gets.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:52 am 
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IMU wrote:
His statistics tell you exactly how good he was.


His W/L record is a statistic.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 10:58 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
His statistics tell you exactly how good he was.


His W/L record is a statistic.

No. It does not represent an occurrence within the game being played.

It is a performance metric, at best.

One that has been found to be flawed.

Back before even you were a child, folks involved in baseball had no superior ways of analyzing pitchers...so Wins ... and then Quality Starts...were used be necessity.

Today's front offices aren't signing pitchers based on Wins. Scouts aren't recommending kids get drafted / signed based on Wins.

Judging a pitcher by wins would be similar to investing in a company based on amount of employees.

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Last edited by IMU on Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:01 am 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
His statistics tell you exactly how good he was.


His W/L record is a statistic.

No. It does not represent an occurrence within the game being played.

It is a performance metric, at best.

One that has been found to be flawed.
Didn't you just yesterday use the term "Happy Win Day"?

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:09 am 
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IMU wrote:
No. It does not represent an occurrence within the game being played.


It represents a series of occurrences during an actual game, not divorced from it.

IMU wrote:
It is a performance metric, at best.


It's a damn good performance metric.

IMU wrote:
One that has been found to be flawed.


By whom? The same people that keep giving huge money to guys like Shelby Miller?

IMU wrote:
Back before even you were a child, folks involved in baseball had no superior ways of analyzing pitchers...so Wins ... and then Quality Starts...were used be necessity.


This is just another version of "slow, tiny, and white". People weren't stupid in 1950. Everyone knew who the good pitchers were. In fact, people may have been smarter. Nobody would have been dumb enough to argue that a guy with a 38-39 career record was "great".

IMU wrote:
Today's front offices aren't signing pitchers based on Wins. Scouts aren't recommending kids get drafted / signed based on Wins.


Scouts look at how hard guys throw. Striking guys out isn't all there is to pitching. And that's a critical point. All those other statistics measure "stuff" more than they measure the ability to pitch an actual game.

IMU wrote:
Judging a pitcher by wins would be similar to investing in a company based on amount of employees.


I don't really follow that analogy.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:10 am 
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You would simply be the single worst MLB front office employee in the game.

And possibly an average one in 1950.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:10 am 
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He'd be way better than anyone the Sox have, though he doesn't think so.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:11 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
First 17 starts: 108 IP, 2.07 ERA, .584 OPS. His record was 5-4, but more importantly his team was 9-8. That seems hard to believe when you're only giving up 2 ER per 9 IP.


It's not hard to believe when he's a fucking loser. :lol:

Seriously, I think a lot of your viewpoint (and Nas') is informed by living your entire lives in an era of unprecedented offense. The baseball you know is expecting a team to be able to score six at will and if they don't the poor pitcher didn't get "support". But that isn't how baseball has been throughout most of its history. Guys allow two and lose all the time. They're not as good as guys who allow one and win.


Really? I believe a pitcher that gives up 2 runs or less 60% of time and 4 runs or less 90% of the time isn't a bad or losing pitcher. You believe that isn't true. You expect him to give up 0 runs if his offense doesn't score.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:11 am 
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IMU wrote:
You would simply be the single worst MLB front office employee in the game.

And possibly an average one in 1950.


I wouldn't be choking on Shelby Miller. That I know.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:15 am 
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Nas wrote:
I believe a pitcher that gives up 2 runs or less 60% of time and 4 runs or less 90% of the time isn't a bad or losing pitcher.



I never said Quintana was a "bad" pitcher. He is a losing pitcher. That is indisputable as of June 1, 2016.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:18 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
I believe a pitcher that gives up 2 runs or less 60% of time and 4 runs or less 90% of the time isn't a bad or losing pitcher.



I never said Quintana was a "bad" pitcher. He is a losing pitcher. That is indisputable as of June 1, 2016.


I don't know many people who believe that a losing pitcher is good or average.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:18 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Except you believe that a guy who gives up 5 and wins is just as good as a guy who gives up 1 and wins.


Sometimes he is. Unless you believe that scoring conditions are the same for all games.

A good comp for Quintana is Joel Horlen. Look him up. I'm sure you'll see his numbers and think he was a lot better than he really was.

I was just thinking of Horlen. He didn't have anyone on his team who could hit.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:20 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
I believe a pitcher that gives up 2 runs or less 60% of time and 4 runs or less 90% of the time isn't a bad or losing pitcher.



I never said Quintana was a "bad" pitcher. He is a losing pitcher. That is indisputable as of June 1, 2016.


I don't know many people who believe that a losing pitcher is good or average.


You're a guy who thinks at least one losing pitcher is "great".

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:23 am 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Except you believe that a guy who gives up 5 and wins is just as good as a guy who gives up 1 and wins.


Sometimes he is. Unless you believe that scoring conditions are the same for all games.

A good comp for Quintana is Joel Horlen. Look him up. I'm sure you'll see his numbers and think he was a lot better than he really was.

I was just thinking of Horlen. He didn't have anyone on his team who could hit.



Now we're getting somewhere. Horlen pitched for mostly good teams (and a couple really bad ones). The reason his team didn't hit is closely related to the reason he allowed so few runs. It was very difficult to hit in Comiskey Park at that time. His low ERAs and WHIPs belied the fact that he was a rather ordinary pitcher which was illustrated by his W/L record.

I wonder if anyone here wants to argue that Joel Horlen was a better pitcher than Catfish Hunter.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:27 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
I believe a pitcher that gives up 2 runs or less 60% of time and 4 runs or less 90% of the time isn't a bad or losing pitcher.



I never said Quintana was a "bad" pitcher. He is a losing pitcher. That is indisputable as of June 1, 2016.


I don't know many people who believe that a losing pitcher is good or average.


You're a guy who thinks at least one losing pitcher is "great".


He is. What would you call him besides a loser? Why do you choose to ignore your eyes and his other stats? Why aren't you harder on Sale for failing to win 14 games more than once or sucking so much that he had a losing season?

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:28 am 
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Nas wrote:
What would you call him besides a loser?


A good number three man in a decent rotation.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:29 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Except you believe that a guy who gives up 5 and wins is just as good as a guy who gives up 1 and wins.


Sometimes he is. Unless you believe that scoring conditions are the same for all games.

A good comp for Quintana is Joel Horlen. Look him up. I'm sure you'll see his numbers and think he was a lot better than he really was.

I was just thinking of Horlen. He didn't have anyone on his team who could hit.



Now we're getting somewhere. Horlen pitched for mostly good teams (and a couple really bad ones). The reason his team didn't hit is closely related to the reason he allowed so few runs. It was very difficult to hit in Comiskey Park at that time. His low ERAs and WHIPs belied the fact that he was a rather ordinary pitcher which was illustrated by his W/L record.

I wonder if anyone here wants to argue that Joel Horlen was a better pitcher than Catfish Hunter.


Does Quintana or Sale have the same problem? Their teams haven't been good and the offense sucks.

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