He plays 80 games in Oakland. That's roughly 280 at bats.

Let's say of those 280 at bats he hit 25 foul ball outs that wouldn't have been outs at the Cell.

Of those 25 outs, let's just say he gets 10 hits here of those 25 at bats.

Oakland is huge. I'll bet he had at least 10 warning track balls that would be out at the cell.

So right there I got Swisher 20 extra hits. That takes the average from .250 to .270.

Ok, now you add our line up protection and I'll give him 20 more hits because of the protection this line up affords him. Boom!!!! That's a .290 average.

There. Like how I did that?

Keep twisting it around and goin off on tangents. Maybe you'll address the important parts of the argument before the season starts.

I love you Beardown

Well guess what. If the Sox don't win this year Kenny is gonna trade all the vets next off season and we'll be getting a shit load of prospects anyway.

Hell, he could flip Swisher for prospects next year if we suck. Might as well take a shot this year. He was already pot committed (poker term). He had to go all in.

WOW! I'm attacking you? Well, sorry Nas, if you can't handle somebody blindly agreeing with you without a strong argument to support what your case, then I'm sorry. But I don't apologize for giving my opinion.

BTW, I never said anything about being excited about a .270 hitter. If you'd like to know what I think and find the facts and opinion that I used to build my argument, then go back and actually read what I wrote in this thread. Otherwise, calm down

That's not excitement, it's a question....notice the question mark (?) at the end of the sentence?

That's really the point that gets missed. I don't care if they turn into stars or not. They have a present day value. KW seems to trade away too much value in each of his moves. Overpaying means that he has less to unload in another trade.

In truth, I would have been happier if KW made this type of offer for Haren.

All this angst and arguing over Nick Swisher? I guess it's a slow time in Chicago sports.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Another point that is missed - Swisher is really cheap. 5 million a year for 4 years. We all know the Sox have a budget. So, Kenny will have more money to make a trade if the Sox are in it. He can take on some money at the trading deadline.

Now, your gonna say with what prospects? I don't know. Maybe somebody develops this year in the Sox system.

Or Kenny can semi blow up the team if they don't win and still have Swisher as a piece for a quick rebuilding job.

You had Vazquez as a Cy Young winner before last season. He wasn't the Cy but he was pretty damn good.

Don't lose faith Nas.

I'm just hoping Contreras and one kid can be decent to good. We might have a chance if that happens.

Sorry, but since you didn't address any of the points I made, I'm pretty sure you didn't read much of it either.

...and I almost forgot, Corey Patterson sucks!

.251 average

135 strike outs


I just wanted to make those stats known so Nas doesn't have to repeat it.

I went back an read what I wrote, unlike you, and I see my point and agree with it.

That will be a fun conversation if you would like to argue that Jaque Jones is better than Swisher. I don't think you are trying to do that.

Yeah. He's not better Nas.

Jones - Rag arm. Kills you on the base paths. Doesn't walk as much as Swisher. Plus, he's just baseball dumb.

Health was an issue, but you give far too little respect to the fact that the cell is a major hitters ballpark and Oakland is the opposite.

Dye in Oakland

24 HR in 131 games
4 HR in 65 games
23 HR in 137 games

Dye in Chicago

31 in 145
44 in 146
28 in 138

Look at that. Even in a year that was plagued by injury and a first half of around .220 hitting Dye still hit 17% more HR in chicago than his best year in Oakland. This despite being 4 years older.

I look at the cell as being good for between 10-20% of a push on HR 's for a player. I feel confident that Swisher will be a 30-35 HR player over the next 4 years...but I still agree with you that KW overpaid.

I think swisher has been living off his "colorful" personality and 1st round pick status for awhile now...he's a geoff jenkins/kevin mench type and those guys are okay to have around but you don't give up so much for him.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/1/3/153310/6909

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"Then Darin Erstad fell down while flying out to center in the sixth and left because of cramps."

Let's actually check what he did in Oakland this year so we don't have to pull scenarios out our butts.



He hit 9 foul ball fly outs total, not even considering what would be out at the Cell. I'll be generous and say 4 of those would have been out of play here. So as a .250 hitter...let me get out the calculator...he'd have 1 extra stinkin' hit.

Checking the spray chart and comparing it to the dimensions at the Cell...I see a few hits that would be homers here, but he's not going to blow up or anything.

In a 600 at bat season, it's about 13 hits...I'm not saying, I'm just saying...

Ok. You got me on the foul ball outs. Only 9 according to this chart. Not that big of a deal

As to your home run point. It's not only the distances of the home run wall. The cell does have smaller dimensions. But the ball carries well at the cell. Oakland is notorious for not carrying well.

My biggest point is the line up. He's in a better one. That helps. Not only will he not be pitched around but you always see better pitches when guys are on base. I think we'll have more guys on base than he had for him in Oakland.

Hey, we'll see. I'll stand by my prediction.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Oakland is known as a pitchers park, actually it's second in terms of being a pitchers park. The Cell is in the top 10 for hitters. I'm not saying he's going to blow up, but to expect him to get back to the 30 HR level is not that surprising. Look at what Jermaine Dye has done since he got here: 31, 44 and 28 dingers. He never got more than 24 in Oakland. (His career high was 33 in KC back in 2000)

nick swisher is one of my favorite players in baseball, i couldn't be happier to have him on the sox. i don't think this one deal is going to have much of an effect on the team's chances in the AL-C this year, but the lineup looks a lot more competitive now than it did at the end of the season.

i cant believe this thead is still going.

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Nas this is not a large contract.

Large? Probably not



But I'd say unless he improves he'll be overpaid by the end.

as Jim @ soxmachine said, with the way contracts are going up these days, 9mil in 2011 might be the going rate for a setup man. i'll take nick swisher coming off his prime years @ 9mil, regardless of the output.

I'd take him too if he was a free agent and could sign him to that, trading for it, not as much.

I don't think this is a bad trade for the Sox because i don't believe the Sox gave up much to get Swisher.

Swisher is still young, cheap and has an ability to take walks, if he hits .260 with 25 HRs and 80-90 walks I would consider that a good year.

And lets take a look at the Sox prospects

Sweeney has been talked about for a few years now and hasn't accomplished much either in the high minors or majors. He seems to be on the same career path as Borchard, Jeremy Reed and Brian Anderson, touted Sox outfield prospects that never accomplish much. His stock has been going down the last few years.

Gio Gonzalez has been traded three times in two years. And he still is in Double A. I am starting to think that his stock has dropped in the past year.

And the other pitcher is in Single A ball. Every team claims to have prospects in Single A, most of the time these "prospects" fizzle out.
As a Cub fan I am sceptical of these valuable prospects (future Cub catcher of the future Pat Cline anyone?).

It's one thing if your top prospects are in Double AA ball or have some major league experience. I believe the Tiger players traded to Florida seem to be major league ready. The White Sox top prospects are not.

Sweeney (stock fading), Gonzalez (stagnant) and the third guy (single A) don't seem as valuable as other organizations best young talent.

One thing that I have not seen discussed is how this fits into KW overall plan this offseason. He traded an upper middle of the rotation starter for an aging shorstop in large part to beef up the defense. I assume that he believes defense was a reason for some of the pitching problems last year. Now he has traded prospects in order to play an average defender out of position. Any gain you made in infield D has now been offset by the loss in OF D.

I think I would have rather given Hunter the extra 3 million per year, kept the prospects and known that both hitting and D had greatly improved in the offseason.

im not sure kenny has a plan this offseason. i dont think im alone in scratching my head at the things he has done at not done so far.

and no doubt the defense was bad, but the bullpen was worse. yes, scott linebrink will help but that pen still needs a lot of work. if jenks gets hurt, they are totally fucked.

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