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How great is Jose Quintana
Greatest 27%  27%  [ 4 ]
Really Great 33%  33%  [ 5 ]
Great 40%  40%  [ 6 ]
Total votes : 15
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:59 am 
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KDdidit wrote:
Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
There's no reason a truly good pitcher who gets 3.6-4 runs in support should have a losing record.


Huh?


Oh yeah, the qualifier was "great." Even worse.


The math is stubborn. If your team scores 4 runs for you, you can't get a loss unless you allow 5. But of course all these numbers are averages and nobody just goes out and allows 3.6 runs each game.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:24 am 
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KDdidit wrote:
Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
There's no reason a truly good pitcher who gets 3.6-4 runs in support should have a losing record.


Huh?


Oh yeah, the qualifier was "great." Even worse.

:lol:

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:16 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
The math is stubborn. If your team scores 4 runs for you, you can't get a loss unless you allow 5.

You've...almost....got it...

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:51 am 
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KDdidit wrote:
Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
There's no reason a truly good pitcher who gets 3.6-4 runs in support should have a losing record.


Huh?


Oh yeah, the qualifier was "great." Even worse.


Tell me what pitcher has had a winning record after being dead last in run support or in the bottom 7 in run support for his entire career?

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:19 am 
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Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
There's no reason a truly good pitcher who gets 3.6-4 runs in support should have a losing record.


Huh?


Oh yeah, the qualifier was "great." Even worse.


Tell me what pitcher has had a winning record after being dead last in run support or in the bottom 7 in run support for his entire career?


All you have to do is look at the chart above to see Harvey and Teheran.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:25 am 
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Harvey isn't a great example. He was an ace before this year... 72 FIP- which is amazing.

Look at Cashner. He has been better than league average and was 25-40.

He isn't a loser. He starts for the Padres.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:29 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
There's no reason a truly good pitcher who gets 3.6-4 runs in support should have a losing record.


Huh?


Oh yeah, the qualifier was "great." Even worse.


Tell me what pitcher has had a winning record after being dead last in run support or in the bottom 7 in run support for his entire career?


All you have to do is look at the chart above to see Harvey and Teheran.


I meant to say every season of their careers. Either way it's clearly rare. Both pitchers you mentioned have played in 20 to 60 fewer games. Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:30 am 
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IMU wrote:
Harvey isn't a great example. He was an ace before this year... 72 FIP- which is amazing.

Look at Cashner. He has been better than league average and was 25-40.

He isn't a loser. He starts for the Padres.



That's exactly wrong. He is a loser. All his other numbers look good because up until they moved the fences in Petco was a pitcher's paradise.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:32 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
There's no reason a truly good pitcher who gets 3.6-4 runs in support should have a losing record.


Huh?


Oh yeah, the qualifier was "great." Even worse.


Tell me what pitcher has had a winning record after being dead last in run support or in the bottom 7 in run support for his entire career?


All you have to do is look at the chart above to see Harvey and Teheran.


I meant to say every season of their careers. Either way it's clearly rare. Both pitchers you mentioned have played in 20 to 60 fewer games. Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.


Huh? Now you seem to be suggesting that getting "run support" somehow makes a pitcher bad. You seem to think this is like magic or something. Like the Sox hitters are under a spell when Quintana pitches. The game is the game. It is totally unrelated to other games. You seem to be suggesting that the guy who is throwing a shutout at the White Sox "deserves" to lose just because you like Jose Quintana.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:34 am 
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Those numbers are league and park adjusted.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:37 am 
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IMU wrote:
Those numbers are league and park adjusted.


No, they're not. Certainly not in anyway that makes sense. Additionally, it's more sleight of hand to adjust the FIP without adjusting the "run support". If you really believe your argument, that type of stuff shouldn't be necessary.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:38 am 
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Nas wrote:
Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.


Are you serious? Every guy on that list except Drese and maybe Ortiz is better than Quintana.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:41 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Huh? Now you seem to be suggesting that getting "run support" somehow makes a pitcher bad. You seem to think this is like magic or something. Like the Sox hitters are under a spell when Quintana pitches. The game is the game. It is totally unrelated to other games. You seem to be suggesting that the guy who is throwing a shutout at the White Sox "deserves" to lose just because you like Jose Quintana.


No I'm saying the same thing that I've been saying for a while. A pitcher that does not get much run support won't win as often as a pitcher that gets a ton of run support.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:43 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.


Are you serious? Every guy on that list except Drese and maybe Ortiz is better than Quintana.


Yikes! Say no more.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:48 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.


Are you serious? Every guy on that list except Drese and maybe Ortiz is better than Quintana.


Yikes! Say no more.


Which ones do you think are worse than Quintana? Pedro? Schiilling? Mussina? Rogers? Park? Padilla? David Wells? I guess you could argue about Burkett and Helling.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:50 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Those numbers are league and park adjusted.


No, they're not. Certainly not in anyway that makes sense.

Yes, they are.

I have a friend that creates advanced weather models. They make no sense to me. It doesn't mean his data is false.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:50 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Huh? Now you seem to be suggesting that getting "run support" somehow makes a pitcher bad. You seem to think this is like magic or something. Like the Sox hitters are under a spell when Quintana pitches. The game is the game. It is totally unrelated to other games. You seem to be suggesting that the guy who is throwing a shutout at the White Sox "deserves" to lose just because you like Jose Quintana.


No I'm saying the same thing that I've been saying for a while. A pitcher that does not get much run support won't win as often as a pitcher that gets a ton of run support.


I agree. When you face a guy who pitches better than you do, you're likely to lose the game.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:51 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.


Are you serious? Every guy on that list except Drese and maybe Ortiz is better than Quintana.


Yikes! Say no more.

:lol:

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:53 am 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Those numbers are league and park adjusted.


No, they're not. Certainly not in anyway that makes sense.

Yes, they are.

I have a friend that creates advanced weather models. They make no sense to me. It doesn't mean his data is false.


Do you really think I don't understand the adjustments and how they're made? They're far from accurate. There is no universal agreement even among the guys who make them. And if you're going to adjust his FIP due to his park, you better adjust the "run support" the other way or it's just sleight of hand as I said.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:54 am 
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IMU wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.


Are you serious? Every guy on that list except Drese and maybe Ortiz is better than Quintana.


Yikes! Say no more.

:lol:


Which ones do you think are worse than Quintana? Pedro? Schiilling? Mussina? Rogers? Park? Padilla? David Wells? I guess you could argue about Burkett and Helling.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:55 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.


Are you serious? Every guy on that list except Drese and maybe Ortiz is better than Quintana.


Yikes! Say no more.


Which ones do you think are worse than Quintana? Pedro? Schiilling? Mussina? Rogers? Park? Padilla? David Wells? I guess you could argue about Burkett and Helling.


He's better than Padilla. Padilla is one of the poster boys for what run support can do for your career.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:00 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Which ones do you think are worse than Quintana? Pedro? Schiilling? Mussina? Rogers? Park? Padilla? David Wells? I guess you could argue about Burkett and Helling.

Park, Ortiz, Padilla, Wang, Oliver, Hermanson, Drese, Helling, Reynolds.

All worse. Cannot be argued.

Pedro, Schilling, Wells and Mussina were better than Quintana.

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Last edited by IMU on Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:00 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.


Are you serious? Every guy on that list except Drese and maybe Ortiz is better than Quintana.


Yikes! Say no more.


Which ones do you think are worse than Quintana? Pedro? Schiilling? Mussina? Rogers? Park? Padilla? David Wells? I guess you could argue about Burkett and Helling.


He's better than Padilla. Padilla is one of the poster boys for what run support can do for your career.


Well, he's not better than Padilla. Padilla is one of the poster boys for what pitching half your games in Texas can do to your ERA and WHIP. You can see when he was healthy and starting in Philadelphia what his ERAs were.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:03 am 
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IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Which ones do you think are worse than Quintana? Pedro? Schiilling? Mussina? Rogers? Park? Padilla? David Wells? I guess you could argue about Burkett and Helling.

Park, Ortiz, Padilla, Wang, Oliver, Hermanson, Drese, Helling, Reynolds.

All worse. Cannot be argued.

Pedro, Schilling, Wells and Mussina were better than Quintana.



Of course it can be argued.

First, leave the relievers out of it. Second, some of those guys pitched in the heart of the steroid era while Quintana is creating his numbers in the modern deadball era. Quintana is not a better pitcher than Padilla or Shane Reynolds or Chan Ho Park.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:04 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
Nas wrote:
KDdidit wrote:
There's no reason a truly good pitcher who gets 3.6-4 runs in support should have a losing record.


Huh?


Oh yeah, the qualifier was "great." Even worse.


The math is stubborn. If your team scores 4 runs for you, you can't get a loss unless you allow 5. But of course all these numbers are averages and nobody just goes out and allows 3.6 runs each game.


The thing is, the RS/9 is a "per 9 innings" stat, like ERA. A pitcher with a 5.00 ERA doesn't average 5 Earned Runs in any given start. Similarly, a team that averages between 3 and 4 runs per 9 innings for a given pitcher isn't "giving" that pitcher, necessarily, between 3 and 4 runs when they are vying for the "win", they are giving them at least 1, maybe 2, runs fewer than their per 9 average.

In context, the White Sox score at a rate that equates to between 3 and 4 runs per game when Quintana is pitching (per his RS/9), but the amount of runs Quintana "gets" while actually pitching in order to satisfy the contextual rules of a "win" is certainly less than 3.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:07 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
A reasonable person could conclude that Pitcher W/L has almost nothing to do with actual pitcher performance.


If that were actually the case wouldn't there be a losing pitcher better than Matt Cain somewhere in baseball history?


Still waiting for the answer to this on Cain where you said he had more bad seasons than good:

Here are Cain's seasons

2005: 46 IP 30 K's 185 ERA+
2006 190 IP 179 K's 108 ERA+
2007 200 IP 163 K's 123 ERA+
2008 217 IP 186 K's 117 ERA+
2009 217 IP 171 K's 147 ERA+ (AS Game Appearance)
2010 223 IP 181 K's 124 ERA+ (12th in Cy Young Voting WS Ring)
2011 221 IP 177 K's 121 ERA + (AS Game Appearance 8th in Cy Young Voting)
2012 219 IP 193 K's 126 ERA +(AS Game Appearance 6th in Cy Young Voting WS Ring)
2013 184 IP 158 K's 86 ERA +
2014 90 IP 70 K's 83 ERA +
2015 60 IP 71 K's 65 ERA +
2016 57 IP 41 K's 75 ERA +

I'll grant that 2013-2016 were not good seasons (bad if you will), so you've got to tell me which of the 3 seasons from 2005-2012 he wasn't a good pitcher for him to have more bad seasons than good seasons.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:08 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Second, some of those guys pitched in the heart of the steroid era while Quintana is creating his numbers in the modern deadball era. Quintana is not a better pitcher than Padilla or Shane Reynolds or Chan Ho Park.


Again, FIP- and xFIP...

You're like a creationist denying evolution.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:10 am 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:

The thing is, the RS/9 is a "per 9 innings" stat, like ERA. A pitcher with a 5.00 ERA doesn't average 5 Earned Runs in any given start. Similarly, a team that averages between 3 and 4 runs per 9 innings for a given pitcher isn't "giving" that pitcher, necessarily, between 3 and 4 runs when they are vying for the "win", they are giving them at least 1, maybe 2, runs fewer than their per 9 average.

In context, the White Sox score at a rate that equates to between 3 and 4 runs per game when Quintana is pitching (per his RS/9), but the amount of runs Quintana "gets" while actually pitching in order to satisfy the contextual rules of a "win" is certainly less than 3.


JLN, you're being completely stupid here.

If Quintana would just start competing more and be a man and throw a complete game in every one of his starts, he'd reap the benefits of all those runs the Sox are scoring.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:11 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Also if you look at the list of pitchers with the most run support I doubt that you would take half of them over Quintana despite their records.


Are you serious? Every guy on that list except Drese and maybe Ortiz is better than Quintana.


Yikes! Say no more.


Which ones do you think are worse than Quintana? Pedro? Schiilling? Mussina? Rogers? Park? Padilla? David Wells? I guess you could argue about Burkett and Helling.


He's better than Padilla. Padilla is one of the poster boys for what run support can do for your career.


Well, he's not better than Padilla. Padilla is one of the poster boys for what pitching half your games in Texas can do to your ERA and WHIP. You can see when he was healthy and starting in Philadelphia what his ERAs were.


He had a losing record in Philadelphia.

http://m.bbref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXpXXpa ... d_pitching

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:12 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Which ones do you think are worse than Quintana? Pedro? Schiilling? Mussina? Rogers? Park? Padilla? David Wells? I guess you could argue about Burkett and Helling.

Park, Ortiz, Padilla, Wang, Oliver, Hermanson, Drese, Helling, Reynolds.

All worse. Cannot be argued.

Pedro, Schilling, Wells and Mussina were better than Quintana.



Of course it can be argued.

First, leave the relievers out of it. Second, some of those guys pitched in the heart of the steroid era while Quintana is creating his numbers in the modern deadball era. Quintana is not a better pitcher than Padilla or Shane Reynolds or Chan Ho Park.


Let's not get nuts...

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