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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Well, Walt, you know I think California Chrome is the best horse in the world going a mile and a quarter on the dirt. That said, I don't think this race is his objective. Sherman is pointing him for the Breeder's Cup and then the new big race at Gulfstream in January. Those are the two races they absolutely want to win. He may be good enough to win here anyway, but there's no doubt in my mind that Baffert has spent most of the summer getting Dortmund cranked up for this spot.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

When I calculated the implied odds from the horses winning percentage in the Arlington mil., I was one step short. I have made that final calculation, and it's kind of what I thought what the odds would show. They are very close to the house odds. Of course, the favorites are getting far below fair value. For example, with a historic winning percentage of around 20%, which should give him 5-1 odds, Beholder is getting only 3-1. In other words, you are giving up 14% in odds. With C.C., it's far worse, almost 47%.

Anyway, there are only two horses that are giving value and that's just around 5%. Dalmore and War Story. Win the Space, Imperative and Hard Aces you're getting fair odds.

That said, if you're going by straight winning percentage, the model recommends Beholder, Dortmund and C.C. There's a big drop-off then to Hoppertunity as a 4th.

Those low-life cheating you-know-whats at Arlington no doubt scratched Decorated Soldier and Dubai Sky from the Million, because they were giving good value.

You can't really make a good odds line that way. For example, Beholder's historic winning percentage wasn't established vs. this group. In fact, she will almost certainly be a bigger underlay than you have her figured as being. I consider Chrome and Dortmund the only legitimate contenders in the race. They way they are coming to the race, I think if they ran it 100 times Dortmund would win about 40 of them. That makes 3/2 a fair price for him. You should get well more than that. Actually, I may be overestimating Dortmund here and have to adjust that down, but I certainly can't see him being any higher than 9/5 on my final personal line and he should be better than that on race day.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Every horse has a similar progression in its development. So while it's true that Beholder's winning percentage wasn't established versus the group, it has gone against similar competitive forces as the other horses just in terms of racing. I'm not disputing that Dortmund is a good horse, I agree with you JORR, but relative to the other horses he is getting below fair odds at the moment.

I was not accurate when I said taking the rest (of the field) is a suckers game. I amended my post by writing Imperative, Hard Aces and Hoppertunity are giving you fair odds.

Dortmund has not been a contender at this distance. It's an easy pick of Beholder and C.C. for me. Beyond that, it's a toss up between Dortmund and Win the Space.

Dalmore has showed speed recently, but has not raced at the 1 1/4 distance. Win the Space at (15-1) and Dalmore (20-1) would be interesting show bets.

There's question marks about Chrome drawing the 1st post. The trainer didn't like it. Chrome's speed has been proven from the outside. They don't know if he can be as effective from the inside. The word is he is going to have to show speed earlier than usual, and that could test his stamina for the final stretch.

I think this is a legit argument against Chrome. Dortmund and Beholder are sitting much prettier with their outside post positions. Dalmore has the far outside post.

One quick tidbit about Dalmore in my research, he's recently shown to be as quick as Chrome in 1 1/16 mile. He's untried so far at longer distances.

Don't most of the studs point to BC ?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

7, 1, 8, 4 tri-fecta
7, 1, 8 exacta

7 to win, 4 to show.

Not necessarily, Walt. If today's race were the goal for California Chrome I have no doubt Sherman could have him cranked to his sharpest edge and he'd take down the winner's share of the million dollar purse. But in doing that he might compromise his chances in the Cup. Dortmund has had some issues earlier this season. He needs to put some money in the bank. It looks to me like Baffert has been pointing the horse to this spot and he'll worry about what's next after the race. Plus he has other contenders for the Cup. I'm not sure American Freedom isn't the best three year old going right now. Maybe Chrome is good enough to win here anyway. I'm sure they'd like to win the race, but they're going to race the horse in a particular manner and if he ends up in front at the wire, all the better. Dortmund is being sent to win today. We'll find out if he's good enough.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Songbird might beat these!

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

the fair thing to do is give 80% of the purse to whoever puts money on an 8/5 shot and wins.

A: California Chrome is a freak
B: The field is vastly overrated

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Do you still think Frosted can run with this horse at a buck and a quarter? Also, I don't think that field was overrated at all. Beholder won this race last year with a gigantic move. Dortmund is a multiple graded stakes winner. Hoppertunity is a really good horse and the rest of them are legitimate hard-knocking handicap/stakes horses.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Let see how many out of this race will be in BC races

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.