ortiz is a good jockey; i don't think laoban is an easy brush off. however, there are a lot of differing opinions so it's a wide open race. when WWN and spmack don't agree...it's not lookin' good!

castellano is pretty excellent. i'm leaning toward destin. shitty town...pretty good horse.

2-4-11 tri box if it's wet Exaggerator

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Forecast is dry.

WZ, remember that's there two Ortizes....Irad Jr and his brother Jose...both are good but Irad get a tad more livelier horses.

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Yup I was referring to Jose...true Irad has good showings as well.

Gun Runner looks mighty appealing, but his price has dropped to 10-1 from 20-1. Smart money coming in.

Watching the Haskell again, he was with the leaders at the far turn but got caught inside behind a slowing American Freedom and Exaggerator to the outside. He had no where to go, and by the time a lane opened up for him, it was too late for him to gain traction in the slop.

That said, Gun Runner is better than American Freedom at 6-1.

So I'm liking Laoban, Gun Runner, Governor Malibu and mighty Exaggerator, with Gov. Malibu really a toss up with Destin.

Rube you are infatuated with odds?! Where did his odds drop? The odds are made by assholes like me and other bettors. Was that Eloquent enough for your ass spmack?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I saw the updated odds in an article published today on the race. Yes, of course I pay attention to the odds, they tell the story of perceived strength of the horses by the gambling public. They also can be read to identify market mispricing versus historical implied odds. With his 20-1 to 10-1 drop, Gun Runner went from being somewhat cheap to slightly expensive. I see that as a sign of strength for the horse.

The comparable race to the Travers is the Kentucky Derby, where Gun Runner was 3rd behind Exaggerator and Nyquist. It completely makes sense that people would bid up Gun Runner. And there the field was even larger.

the odds will tighten as we get closer to the date, and even moreso closing in on post time. if a hundred DR's are gathered, the odds for gun runner'll be 3/5 by post time.

I hope not. Let's keep this quiet. Shhhhh!!

One note, the two times he did not hit the board were in the mud. He doesn't like it. Otherwise, he is 5-0-1.

https://www.derbywars.com/ W_Z try this ...I think you like it

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Do you play, Walt? spmack? My guy, The Maven was one of the inventors of that shit. Do you follow The Maven on Twitter, spmack?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

all the time....kind of an easy way to wim$$$$$$$ cause you have to beat other bettors

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Nah I never got into it. There's this asshole at Hawthorne that wear a Derby Wars shirt though....he's an asshole because he doesn't play the races, he's just there to watch TNT/TBS movies and gets pissy if you want to turn the TV.

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And there's no way the odds will be 3/5 on anyone. Odds will be spread out....you may even get the 3-1 M/L on Exaggerator at post time. But I'm still all in on Destin.

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Lucky for you he doesn't wear a shirt that has on it I love Pussy!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

never have tried it. i'm still wading through TVG...i don't know if i want to take on more. though i still need some more confidence. i miss out on a lot of picks by second guessing myself.

Just finished 1st in a $9 tourney $50 winner not bad

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Here are my picks to click.

Arrogate 10-1, Gun Runner 10-1, Exaggerator 3-1, American Freedom 6-1 for tri-fecta

Will make place or show bets on Arrogate, Gun Runner and maybe Gift Box.

Arrogate can flat-out fly.

i think Gift Box would make a good show bet. anybody 10+ to 1, put $20 bucks and you're good i think.

1 Arrogate, Mike Smith, Bob Baffert, 10-1

2. American Freedom, Rafael Bejarano, Bob Baffert, 6-1

3. My Man Sam, Manuel Franco, Chad C. Brown, 20-1

4. Governor Malibu, Joel Rosario, Christophe Clement, 12-1

5. Forever d’Oro, Luis Saez, Dallas Stewart, 30-1

6. Anaximandros, Leonel Reyes, Mikhail Yanakov, 50-1

7. Exaggerator, Kent Desormeaux, Keith Desormeaux, 3-1

8. Destin, Javier Castellano, Todd Pletcher, 10-1

9. Gift Box, Junior Alvarado, Chad C. Brown, 12-1

10. Connect, John R. Velazquez, Chad C. Brown, 4-1

11. Majesto, SCRATCH

12. Creator, Irad Ortiz, Jr., Steven Asmussen, 15-1

13. Laoban, Jose L. Ortiz, Eric Guillot, 15-1

14. Gun Runner, Florent Geroux, Steven Asmussen, 10-1
Latest odds per Forbes

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

how's this for hilarity...i'll be at the ren fest today while this race is going on. so if i make a bet it'll be on my TVG app. Huzzah! I'm loving the idea of Destin with 10-1 but i have a feeling that'll change come post time. probably like 6-1 or 5-1.

I think that's a bad line on Connect. I'd say he's the least of the three Brown horses.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Pick 3 and 4's are to be had today even JOR bitch Carina Mia is running

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

American Freedom's speed figures have not been that great. Before his 98 in the Haskell, he had a 96 in the Iowa Derby. I don't see how that gets it done today.

So I might have to go back to Laoban with his 101 last time out. That's not "waltzing around the track" as JORR put it. I keep hearing the call from the last race in my head, "AND LAOBAN IS STILL THERE!!". It could well be again like that today.

1, 13, 7, 14. 1 to win, 13 to place, 9 to show. Final answer. GL all!

No way Laoban has any chance today. I don't care what kind of fig he ran in the Dandy. He had it all his own way.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You actually thought Carina Mia could beat Songbird?

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Bravo!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Good call Rube.

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Thanks. I knew he was good, when I saw his fractions in his last race.

Then I saw that the New York Times picked him to win, which got me very interested.

But a 12 length victory against the best I would not have guessed. Incredible performance.

Arrogate's time was better than Secretariat's in the Kentucky Derby.