here's Zipse's take:
Less than a week removed from all the buzz created by a superlative effort in the Travers Stakes by Arrogate, Saratoga prepares to close its doors on another fantastic season of racing. But before it will do that, the venerable Upstate New York race course offers up one last heaping of graded stakes through Labor Day Monday. We’ve already seen a little bit of everything at the Spa this summer; can Saratoga deliver one more time with something special? Leading the way, this holiday weekend, will be the Grade 1 2016 Woodward. Won in years past by such legends as: Kelso, Damascus, Forego, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, and more recently; Ghostzapper, Curlin, and Rachel Alexandra, this year’s edition of the $600,000 race may lack that type of star power, but it does have a heavy favorite with designs on a run to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Let’s take a look at the probable field …
3) Frosted (3-5) – After his stunning win in the Grade 1 Met Mile, few expected Frosted to go right to the lead in his next start, but that is exactly what he did in the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap. Despite the strong early fractions through three-quarters in 1:09.65, the talented son of Tapit was easily able to repel a good bunch of challengers, in Comfort, Upstart, and Effinex. For an encore, Frosted comes back four weeks later for another Grade 1 event, going nine furlongs at Saratoga. This time, though, it seems his Whitney competition wants no part of a return engagement. With a new cast of characters ready to tackle the top older horse in the East, the question then becomes … can anyone here defeat him? My feeling is likely not. Off his recent form, and with his ability to put himself just about anywhere during the early part of the race, it would seem only a serious regression, or a career best effort from one of the others, could stop him on Saturday. Strictly the One to Beat
9) Mubtaahij (5-1) – Ever since he ran away and hid from the field in the 2015 UAE Derby, this classy four-year-old son of Dubawi has yet to find the winner’s circle. He has run several solid races, most notably finishing second in the $10 million Dubai World Cup behind only California Chrome, but has not won in six straight. This will be his second start for trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, who also trains Frosted, so it will be interesting to see if there is marked improvement from his first start in American this year, when third in the Suburban. That one was a solid, but unspectacular effort. Solid but unspectacular seems an apt enough description of Mubtaahij to this point, but a big win in his future would certainly not be a surprise. Take note that this will be his fourth meeting with Frosted, having finished behind that one in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes of 2015, but he did beat him in the last meeting, in the World Cup. Along for the Place
1) Shaman Ghost (12-1) – In the Brooklyn, he looked like a budding handicap star. In the Suburban, he looked extremely average. Which race are we to believe? I actually did not like him in the Suburban coming out of that 12-furlong win, so I was not surprised with his rather dull effort. With time off since, the addition of first-time Lasix, and at least a more reasonable pace to run at this time, I am expecting an improved performance off the last one. I still think he has talent, but looking for a victory here might be a bit too much to expect. I could see him contending for the place spot, though. Better than His Last
4) Bradester (6-1) – The legitimate speed of the race, this experienced son of Lion Heart would appear to be at his best ever this year. Now six-years-old, he is three-or-three this year, including a score in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. Having said that, this year’s Foster, with a dull Effinex, did not come up strong, and his other wins came against cheaper at a Monmouth Park track which he loves. Quality speed is always dangerous, and Bradester is quality speed – I just am not confident that he is Frosted kind of quality. My guess is that he will find a major test this Saturday on the Saratoga far turn. The One to Catch
6) Samraat (10-1) – Another classy horse who has not found the winner’s circle in some time, Samraat is an easy horse to root for. A few years ago, remember that the New York-bred strung together a nice group of wins, before running sneaky good races in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. Last year seemed to be a toss, due to health issues. Now, with four races under his belt in 2016, and coming off one of the best performances of his life when just barely edged out in the Suburban, is it time for Samraat to shine again? Maybe. I would expect another honest effort, but keep in mind, his Suburban was aided by pedestrian early fractions. Maybe for Third
2) Breaking Lucky (20-1) – This son of Lookin at Lucky has proven to be a solid performer north of the border. He won the middle jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown last year at Fort Erie, and he comes in off a solid victory in the recent Seagram’s Cup. Now would seem like the perfect time to take a shot, and I respect his connections for doing it, but from a class perspective, I just do not believe he matches up with the best of these. Some good Canadians do, but not this one. Lacks Grade 1 Class
7) Tale of Verve (20-1) – It was good to see the Preakness runner-up of 2015 run a good race and finally get a win, while beating My Man Sam in a recent Saratoga allowance. While that was nice, I believe the stretch runner is simply not fast enough against Frosted and the like. Too Slow
5) Catholic Cowboy (50-1) – The one-time winner of the Claiming Crown Jewel seems clearly overmatched in the Woodward. Not with These
Tapin Mojo (50-1) – Another who seems to be hopelessy up against it in this field. Overmatched
http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/the_woodward_2016_odds_and_analysis_123#exacta 3/4?
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