I like this race a lot for tomorrow.

Here are the key contenders for tomorrow.

Gettysburg, by Pioneerof the Nile
Last 3 Beyers: 89-87-87

◗ Corey Lanerie will be in from Kentucky to ride Gettysburg, a $425,000 Keeneland yearling purchase.

Sticksstatelydude, by First Dude
Last 3 Beyers: 103-78-78

◗ Trainer Greg Burchell ships him in from Kentucky. The 103 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in winning a Belmont allowance in July is by far tops in this field. Joel Rosario gives up closing day at Saratoga to stay aboard.

Awesome Slew, by Awesome Again
Last 3 Beyers: 53-91-85

◗ A longshot, trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. has always thought highly of him and said he did not handle the sloppy track in the Haskell Invitational last out. He will have to overcome post 14, but if the track is dry, expect a good effort at a price.

Voluntario, by Hold Me Back
Last 3 Beyers: 90-86-92

◗ Fourth in the Grade 3 Dwyer last out for Rudy Rodriguez, his runner-up effort to American Freedom in the restricted Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico in May points out his ability.

Wild About Deb, by Eskendereya
Last 3 Beyers: 79-93-92

◗ Races for Ramon Preciado after previously being trained by Phil D’Amato.

◗ Didn’t run well in the Ohio Derby but was third to Unified in the Grade 2 Peter Pan in his prior start.

◗ Tiago Pereira, who rode him out West, will be in from California for the mount.

Name Changer, by Uncle Mo
Last 3 Beyers: 86-86-82

◗ Finished third of 10 last out in the West Virginia Derby for Alan Goldberg. He won a Parx allowance by 11 lengths in his prior start.

Gettysburg has the speed and outclasses the other horses. The Wildcard is Sticksstatelydude putting up the 103 speed figure last time out. That's highest in the field. Voluntario and Wild About Deb have the top WPs in the field.

every time i heard the name "Smarty Jones" i couldn't help but think of "Marty Jones"-- some chick who did traffic reports for uhhh... i wanna say WCPT 820AM ~5-10 years ago when i used to listen to the thom hartmann show a bunch from 2-5pm (for whatever reason it synced up with b&b real well, like after the first segment you could pretty much hear a b&b segment, jump over to thom hartmann and ride it out til a commercial, then flip back to b&b as they'd be coming out of commercials. IIRC this "Synergy" would last all the way up til the final 5-10mins of the hour.

AHEM! anyways yeah, whenever i heard "Smarty Jones" i'd alwasy chuckle like they were calling some poor hapless traffic lady a horse (which is a term you tend to reserve for only deserving recipients, such as Beth Ostrosky-Stern =)

_________________

looks pretty up in the air. would love to pull the trigger for a big one.

Sticksstatelydude has the back class of this bunch ran 4th to Brodys Cause can do

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

My friends, I was able to figure out the track biases toward the horses from the odds setting. In this race, the track is favoring these in this order:

Voluntario (7/2)
Awesome Slew (6/1)
Gettysburg (8/1)
Sticksstatelydude (5/1)

I do not know whether this analysis is helpful in picking winners, because this is the first time I've done this. But it would seem to me the house knows the horses better than the public and therefore, sets these horses at a premium in terms of the odds.

Four horses the house is giving fair or better odds:

Wild About Deb (10/1)
Titanium Heart (20/1)
Cocked and Loaded (15/1)
Abiding Star (15/1)

I like Awesome Slew. He was right with the leaders in the Haskell, but tired after 1 mi. due to the mud, and in the G3 Pegasus earlier this year he was finished 3rd only a length back. If he can hang with the Nyquist's, American Freedoms and Exaggerators, he should do well in this race against lesser talent.

I hope you all have a happy Labor Day!

Easy. The 6 Sticksstatelydude. Rosario was sent to PA to ride him and he needs to do something after his bad ride on Frosted the other day.

_________________

I wouldn't presume to tell you how to handicap a race, but I'm not sure what you mean by "the house setting the odds". This is parimutuel gambling. The house isn't setting any odds. It's all a function of what is bet into the pools. If you're talking about the morning line, that's just some goof's approximation at what the off odds might be. It's not a real line at all since it never adds up to 100%. Some tracks have a better morning line than others. I believe Blackjackcat was 15/1 or something on the ML in the Del Mar Derby yesterday and he went off as the 3/1 favorite.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Did you think he gave Frosted a bad ride? The horse broke bad. I'm not sure if that was the jock's fault. But he put in a huge race. At the eighth pole I thought for sure he was gonna win it. I'm more impressed with Frosted than I was before the race. I actually think he has a shot at California Chrome in the Cup if they can get him to relax. He seemed pretty wild in the Whitney.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I just thought he had Frosted too wide at the stretch and thought he'd have enough in the tank for the end.

_________________

Yes, the odds I'm going off of are the morning lines. But those lines are being set by someone at the track, right? It would be better to have the live odds, sure. If I can find live odds at Bovada, I'll run my model again with those.

Besides the four horses I listed, there are only two others I see possibly hitting the board: Wild About Deb (10-1) and Titanium Heart (20-1). Wild about Deb was decent earlier this year in a race with Gov. Malibu. In four tries, the horses only bad performance was last time out in the Ohio Derby, where it finished 7th. The horse has speed and a late kick.

As for Titanium Heart, a winner last time out at the same 1 1/16 in 1.44.35, which is a decent time. However, the horse has not run since mid April, which I'm not sure is a positive or a negative.

Nevermind about the live odds. I opened an account on DRF racing.

Good luck all. Have a good feeling about today.

Sticksstatelydude,Gettysburg,Awesome Slew Tri Box

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Fast track for Parx today.

that's what i've gathered from watching the odds change in a race...the pools are real-time, and the favorite seems to be who has the most money put in the pot from the bettors.

i'm assuming the fast track heavily benefits #14 and #6. i like WWN's idea of tri box too.

50 cents cost 3 bucks ...I had a buddy who hit a .50 pick 3 and 10 Superfecta box cost him $36 and won $3,3000 something..so money can be made

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Sucked dick on this Paco lulled em to sleep and other than Awesome Slew the rest of them are bums

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

You know what's the funniest thing about CPT? Fred Eychaner, the guy who bankrolls the station at what's certain to be a sizable loss because they barely sell any spots, has the wherewithal to keep a left-wing radio station on the air because he made a fortune selling channel 50 to -- you guessed it! -- Fox!

_________________

Goddamnit, i had a feeling about awesome slew and just went with a show bet. Didn't bet heavy but still down for the weekend. Bleh.

I went to the OTB and took Gettsburg across on the ML odds of 8/1. Thought that was a good buy after Gettysburg was leading in the G1 Belmont Derby through 1 1/4 mi. The Live odds got beaten down to 5-1 for him by race time, so I felt pretty good about Gettysburg.

It was Awesome Slew's race today. What else can you say?

I thought Wild about Deb had a chance. But Seeking the Soul I did not see coming. Very difficult to pick that horse from its history.

Well, the method was not a complete bust. I had two out of the four. If I had bet across all four horses, I would have broken even.

<ring the if bell>

_________________
"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

Terrible job by the jockey on Gettysburg. This horse was beating all the best 3 yr. olds in the Belmont Stakes through 1 1/4 mi, and he couldn't beat a no-name horse like Seeking the Soul at Parx in 1 1/6 mi.? Same goes for Voluntario. These horses were going against scrubs.

Doesn't look like there will be any other good races until the end of the month.

Yeah this Saturday is kind of light...you got the Arlington-Washington Futurity G3 at Arlington, a Kentucky Turf Cup G3 at KY Downs, and Super Derby G3 at Louisiana Downs. No G1's or G2's I can see.

_________________

Big harness card at Mohawk. I'm sure Walt is excited!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Love the harness race tracks. I've watched a lot from Mohawk.

Saturday night there will be the eliminations for the Canadian Trotting Classic. There was a horse I saw last weekend that I know is a top class animal on pedigree and conformation. They obviously have had some issues with him because he is very lightly raced. I don't know for certain, but I'm guessing they drop him in the box for the Classic. I'm not sure he can win with the step up, but I do know they weren't trying last week and he nearly won against the best field he had ever faced. They were simply trying to educate the horse. If he draws in against Southwind Frank and or Marion Marauder he's going to have his work cut out for him. I don't think it's realistic to think he can beat those two right now. But he should at least be a consideration for the gimmicks. And if he gets lucky and draws in a heat away from those two horses, he can definitely win and the payoff should be fat. The horse's name is Winter Harbor.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Thanks for the tip! He's slotted in Race 2, and he will be up against Marion Marauder. Southwind Frank will be in Race 3.

i also noticed another horse, Warrawee Roo, in Race 3. I remember coming across that horse a little while ago...loved the name.

Race 2 has some good names. Tony Soprano, and Merchandiser.

I'll keep an eye out...busy day that day but I'll have the app ready.

Hell, outside of Marion Marauder that field isn't much. Maybe he can beat him. You only have to beat two horses to make the final. Marion Marauder has had a grueling month including two heats in the same day in the Hambletonian and now two weeks in a row on four turns. I'm sure they won't want to race him hard. He's likely to sit at the back and pass as many as he can coming home. Waitlifter K and Brooklyn Hill are the next toughest horses. Brooklyn Hill may be dangerous in here on an easy lead, but Winter Harbor is an improving motherfucker.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

so these are qualifiers then? is the final the following week?

Yes, although they're not called "qualifiers". In harness racing, qualifier is a specific term meaning a non-betting race where horses have to go a certain time to show they are fit to race. Similar to a published work for thoroughbreds. It's denoted as "Qua" in the program. These are eliminations and the final is next week. Some horses won't be asked for their best effort this week.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

hm, so that's why you think your horse has a good chance then. seems tough to wager on in a sense...like i wonder how they'd figure the odds.