These #s are a little skewed because several QBs names are duplicated, but with that in mind:

There are 82 quarterbacks that started Super Bowls. Of those 82:
40 (48.78%) have been picked in the 1st round

16 (19.51%) have been picked in the 2nd & 3rd rounds

25 (30.49%) have been picked after the 1st 3 rounds or not picked at all.(includes Steve Young picked in the supplemental draft)

So it's pretty much 50/50 (or the equivalent of a coin toss) on getting a "Super Bowl" quarterback in the 1st round as opposed to getting one after the 1st round.

Of course that's only basing it solely on the #s.

Included in the 25 quarterbacks taken after the 1st 3 rounds are Bart Starr (2 times), Roger Staubach (4 times), Johnny Unitas (1 time), Tom Brady (3 times) & Steve Young (1 time).

Greatness is found everywhere in the draft and the Bears have shown no ability to draft offensive skill players. Use the high picks on lineman and draft the QB later and hope for the best.

I agree with you on this. The last time a team had this big of a hard-on for a college RB, it was the Saints COACH!, and they drafted away everything to get Rickey Williams. Didn't turn out too well for them.

It's not that McFadden will be like Ricky williams, (I hope not) but you can never be too sure with these college players. Dallas has to watch out and not overpay.

I think picking an RB high in the draft is just as risky as drafting a QB, and with a smaller payoff. In fact (and I don't know this for certain), I'd be willing to bet that RBs drafted 16-32 in the draft do better than those drafted 1-15 because they go to teams with better O-lines and who don't need them to be the focal point of their offenses and run them into the ground.

Are you better off reaching for a lineman or reaching for a QB?

By the time the Bears draft, the top-rated OTs like Long and Clady will be gone. Baker and Otah are 1st rounders in some mock drafts, but that's only because of the dearth of quality linemen around the league.

The Bears need playmakers. I'd rather take a chance on a QB or WR (even if there's a higher bust potential) than burn a 1st round pick on somebody only marginally better than the guy you can get in the round 2.

Wait until after the start of free agency before anticipating anything the Bears will do in the draft. I have a very strong feeling that tackle and RB will be addressed with veterans. That should leave WR and S as the principal needs on Day 1 of the draft.

Malcolm Kelly, Early Doucet or Kenny Phillips would be "value picks" at 14 if my scenario played out. I would be fine with any of those moves if the other areas were solidified in FA.

yes. because wade phillips started the wrong back. he refused to start barber who was clearly the better back.

Save your money. The past 20 drafts don't support your theory (I know it was just a guess...). 29 running backs were picked in the first 15 picks and 38 were picked in the 1st round after pick 15.

Here's a list of significant picks from the 1-15 picks followed by the RBs picked after the 15th pick
(fyi - I was very liberal with giving value to recent picks)
1-15 (12 out of 29)
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jamal Lewis
Edgerrin James
Ricky Williams
Fred Taylor
Warrick Dunn
Eddie George
Marshall Faulk
Jerome Bettis
Barry Sanders

Picked after #15 (9 out of 38 )
Lawrence Maroney
Joseph Addai
Steven Jackson
Willis McGahee
Larry Johnson
Deuce McAllister
Shaun Alexander
Robert Smith
Emmitt Smith

It looks like not only did more running backs picked with the first 15 picks in the draft out perform those running backs picked after them if the first round, but they also succeeded at a much higher rate.

I could bicker with a few of those, but fair enough. I had guys like LJ, Addai, Maroney and Jackson in mind.

One thing that I find interesting is that a couple of those guys at the top, despite the high draft pick, have succeeded because their O-lines are so good: Adrian Peterson comes to mind, but especially Edgerrin James. They kind of got it easier than other high picks might have. Of course, you also get the guys that would have been good if you put them behind any O-line- Sanders, LT, Faulk. Maybe Peterson will fall into that group too. There aren't too many of those in the bottom list: Maybe Emmitt Smith, and he's hard to say because his O-line was perhaps the best of all time.

That's fine, but if that's the case, then you're using way too small a sample size and your analysis would then be flawed.
Your only comparing:
Lawrence Maroney
Joseph Addai
Steven Jackson
Willis McGahee
Larry Johnson
TO
Adrian Peterson
Marshawn Lynch
That's an easy win for you

But if you go back the rest of the way (to 20 years ago)
you have to compare:
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jamal Lewis
Edgerrin James
Ricky Williams
Fred Taylor
Warrick Dunn
Eddie George
Marshall Faulk
Jerome Bettis
Barry Sanders
TO:
Deuce McAllister
Shaun Alexander
Robert Smith
Emmitt Smith

That's the biggest no brainer in the history of earth.

No real argument; the draft's a crap shoot. I want lineman (defensive and offensive) when I have a high pick.

If you wanna argue something, I'll argue that Larry Johnson shouldn't even be on the list. He's got two good years and he'll probably retire after about 3 or 4 more years. I know he played behind Holmes and has been injured, but plenty of players have excuses like that. Jamal Anderson comes to mind.

No, you're probably right. It was confirmation bias on my part. I remembered all the good ones and forgot all the bad ones, whereas I remembered the busts that were early picks. Probably because half of them were drafted by the Bears.

Looking back at the 2005 draft, where three of the top five guys were RBs; isn't it funny that maybe the two best running backs in that draft were drafted back to back in the 4th round? I'd rather have Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber III over Benson or Cadillac Williams (I'll give Brown a pass, because he looked good this year before getting injured.)

Anyone else notice Adrian Peterson crapped the bed during the Viking playoff push

No way. TJacks is the one who crapped the bed. The 49ers put 9 in the box vs. AD & Taylor. It worked, AD gained only 3 yards. (plus he was coming back from a fairly serious injury).

The Bears and everyone else followed the 49'ers game plan. AD rushed for 78, 27, 36 yards in the following weeks.

When you know you're going to have man on man on TWO WRs a whole game the QB & OC have to take advantage of it. 1. The OC didn't put the QB in position to succeed and 2. Jackson is not a good QB.

Don't forget the Vikings still averaged 165 yards rushing a game. 5.3 yards/carry average. The 3rd best team (Bronco's) average 4.6!

This is why it will be a big problem if the Vikings get Derek Anderson and Berrian. Anderson will destroy teams that play 9 in the box. Berrian usually wins man on man coverage. Not only that but Anderson is 24 and Peterson 22. We'd see that combo for a long ass time.

He was also the major reason behind the Viking playoff push.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

How did he ever get those 296 yards?

Peterson has been crowned MUCH to early in his career.

AP has filled the void left by Rex Grossman for Nas. I'd use some caution before you get your heart broken again. It was his rookie year, behind a great line, for a team that has no passing game. He did well but I'd like to see a few more years.

Yes. Yes I did.

You think you are a big shot cuz' you've got all that money now. How much of those 16 million pounds are you willing to wager?

Your second statement is true and that makes me sad. I am still more concerned about the ol, the qb position can wait.

If this is a condition of the bet, I'd be willing to make a very large wager....an amount even YOUR W2 couldn't cover

Sorry, Orton is a better option at QB next year over Rex.

Now if Rex somehow figures out how to not be an idiot and play smart then there is a chance but there is nothing that we have seen over the time that Rex has been here that he will be able to.

Rex is not going to change. He doesn't think he has to.

Without an injury to Orton, Rex won't be starting over Orton. They may be both behind someone else, but there is no way he beats out Orton.

Rex was given half a decade to become the franchise QB. He didn't do it and there is nothing that points to him figuring it out. Forget about those first six games from last season. That will not be the Rex Grossman you ever see again consistently. I honestly don't know how he was able to do it for those 6 games.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

If I were Rex, I would be licking my chops at the prospect of going to Minnesota, where they have an actual offensive line and a real running game. He could do some damage there.

_________________

It's not a question of any negatives from Orton. It's the fact that Rex has had half of a decade to prove that he's a starting NFL QB and except for a 6 game stretch to start last season he hasn't.

Rex is, and always will be a ticking time bomb for turnovers. When he is bad, he is as bad as any QB in the league. That will not go away. He won't go in and all of a sudden figure things out. I don't know if he has bad vision because he's short, if he can't stand pressure because he's slow, or if he just thinks he is much better than he is. He thinks he can go out and make the same plays that Brett Favre can.

It's over for him. He has permanent flaws in his game that will never get better. Orton has flaws too and he will have to improve on them or he will be gone.

As for Grossman being better at facing a blitz. I think you are not remembering how Rex seemed to run towards the blitzer and then go down. Rex can't avoid a blitz but did get a little better by throwing it away.

If Rex is on the field for the Bears ever again, then we are in big trouble.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

At this point, I would take Jackson or Orton in a heartbeat over Grossman.

Grossman's mechanics are getting progressively worse, and he's starting to look like David Carr in the pocket. He doesn't have the arm strength to compensate for throwing off the back foot and, as a result, accuracy has really become an issue.

When Griese struggled, everybody rushed to yell "so it wasn't Rex's fault!" But Grossman wasn't any better than Griese at forcing the defense to play the pass. At least Griese moved the chains.

Sure, Grossman might shine in training camp and some exhibition games.

But when it's late in the game and you gotta move the chains, you give the ball to the guy who will step up and deliver the throw.

Grossman and Orton both suck. Neither will go on to have great careers for different reasons. It doesn't matter which one wins the starting job, both will be ineffective.

I still think that AP is best back in the NFL. Tell me how Darth Vader, oops I mean LT, did in the playoffs? He is an extremely talented back but I seriously question his mental fortitude in big games. he seems to dissappear completely. I am actually going to agree with Thug that the defenses just stacked nine in the box and that was a huge reason for the decline in production. In is obvious by now that tarvaris Jackson is the worst starting QB in the NFL, and there was absolutely no help on offense for AP. Right now you could make an argument for a couple different RB's as the best in the NFL, it was a weak year for them and LT has not run the same this year as in years past.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Larry Fitzgerald...Has a nearly $17 million cap figure in 2008. He wants $25 million guaranteed in signing bonus on a new deal. Will the Cardinals make him the highest paid WR in the game?

If they part ways with him, does he become a legitimate option for the Bears?

Personally, I think they will pay him and part ways with Boldin this year or next.

Financially they cant keep both for too long with much needed help in other areas, one of them will be a huge catch for whoever gets them.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Sometimes succinct responses are the most effective.

That's the problem...you just named a bunch of guys that DON'T fit the description of a "go to" guy. Feel free to take as many average, under-achievers on your team as you like CF. But if you don't have an offensive line, a running game and reliable receivers...then you have a shitty offense. Peyton Manning, with a shitty offensive line, no running game and unreliable receivers, is an average (maybe below average if the defense blows too) quarterback. Grossman, Griese, Orton, Jackson, Carr are all awful, even worse (0 to 30 rating) quarterbacks in that scenario. I don't need to give examples if you saw the Bears play last year. The only time the offense looked ok last year was when the defense played up to it's potential.
The quarterback is like a driver in a car. He's the most important person because he decides where and when to go, how fast or slow to go and is involved in every action. But if you have a no engine or flat tires, it doesn't really matter who's driving it, does it? Conversely, if you have a car with the most powerful engine in the world, you don't really need the best driver anymore...just someone to hit the gas and hang on to the wheel. He's still an important part but not really the reason for winning.
The Bears won't find a "Peyton Manning" type quarterback by next year but the o-line and running game can make a turn around in that time frame. Next year's quarterback will just be a placeholder for whoever comes in as the next quarterback of the future, so I wouldn't get too excited this year's choice.

OK Here's something to think about.

Derek Anderson 3,800 yards 29 TDs 19 Ints 88 QB rating
P.Manning 2007 4,000 yards 31 TDs 14 Ints 98 QB rating
P.Manning 1998 3,750 yards 26 TDs 28 Ints 71 QB rating

Derek Anderson 6-6 230 24 yrs old
Peyton Manning 6-5 230 31 yrs old

Peyton had slightly better stats this year then Anderson after 7 years more experience. Notice who had the better first year starting.

I'm not saying DA is going to be as good as Manning but he sure as hell has a better chance to be an elite QB then any QB on the Bears roster or any QB in this years draft.

The best free agent QB out there is Rex Grossman. That's a fact.

Most of the good and great QB's never become free agents because their teams lock them up before they get there.

I'd be shocked if the Bears don't bring back Rex. Angelo said he wants too. I think they'll match any offer and Rex knows his best chance to play will be with the Bears. Orton isn't better than him and he knows that.