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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:19 pm 
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The problem with drafting a quarterback so high is that it can set back the franchise for years, and it strongly appears that NFL teams do not know how to identify quarterbacks. There are some can't miss guys, who are high character and had great numbers for multiple years in a pro style offense in college. Other than those though it looks like round matters less.

Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Brees was in the second. Russell Wilson the 3rd. 4th for Dak Prescott. Think a good strategy would be to draft a guy every year and churn through until you find a good one or jump on a can't miss guy if you get the chance. Clearly there are no can't miss guys in this draft. Rather see if they could get value on a Watson or Kizer in the second than reach at 3 when quarterback development is so hit or miss.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:41 pm 
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Think a good strategy would be to draft a guy every year and churn through until you find a good one or jump on a can't miss guy if you get the chance.


I was thinking the same thing myself. It would require a helluva commitment from ownership to the GM/Coach though. They would have to be willing to accept failure until you get it right.

I would take a QB in round 1 or 2 this year, and then if Chad Kelly is available in round 6 or 7, I'd snag him too. He's a dipshit, but he put up 421 yards passing, 3TD's and no INT's against Bama this year. That has to count for something?


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 4:58 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
The problem with drafting a quarterback so high is that it can set back the franchise for years, and it strongly appears that NFL teams do not know how to identify quarterbacks.
The thing is that it doesn't really set a franchise back for years especially with the new rookie pay structure. You are probably going to suck if you don't have a quarterback or if you draft a quarterback and they are bad. Even if you are good, you are basically destined to be the Texans who have many championship type pieces with no chance of getting anywhere close to the championship. It's easy to look back in hindsight and say "The Jaguars suck because Bortles sucked" but they couldn't have drafted anyone else that would have changed that either.

Also, quarterbacks have by far the longest careers and also stay with their own teams instead of hitting free agency and leaving most of the time for more money.

That is why I advocate taking a first round graded quarterback even if you have to overdraft them a little. If they are truly a lower first round talent then trade down some and still get them.

WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Brees was in the second. Russell Wilson the 3rd. 4th for Dak Prescott. Think a good strategy would be to draft a guy every year and churn through until you find a good one or jump on a can't miss guy if you get the chance. Clearly there are no can't miss guys in this draft. Rather see if they could get value on a Watson or Kizer in the second than reach at 3 when quarterback development is so hit or miss.
Brees was barely a second rounder. However, the second round at least has some reliable success. It's much lower than the first round but you can at least have a hope that a player there becomes good.

The other guys come around about once every 5 years for every team in the league. That means that over the next 5 years the Bears have a 1/32 chance of getting them. Those odds are absolutely horrible. They could draft a quarterback in the fourth round every year and if they are lucky the best one would be a Kyle Orton-type player.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:03 pm 
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Rick, stop..please.. If Jacksonville drafter Mack, or Odell Beckham or mike Evans with their first pick and Carr with the second pick..their team looks much different.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:05 pm 
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That's assuming player development isn't a factor and the David Carr on the Raiders is the same David Carr on the Jags.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:09 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
The problem with drafting a quarterback so high is that it can set back the franchise for years, and it strongly appears that NFL teams do not know how to identify quarterbacks.
The thing is that it doesn't really set a franchise back for years especially with the new rookie pay structure. You are probably going to suck if you don't have a quarterback or if you draft a quarterback and they are bad. Even if you are good, you are basically destined to be the Texans who have many championship type pieces with no chance of getting anywhere close to the championship. It's easy to look back in hindsight and say "The Jaguars suck because Bortles sucked" but they couldn't have drafted anyone else that would have changed that either.

Also, quarterbacks have by far the longest careers and also stay with their own teams instead of hitting free agency and leaving most of the time for more money.

That is why I advocate taking a first round graded quarterback even if you have to overdraft them a little. If they are truly a lower first round talent then trade down some and still get them.

WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Brees was in the second. Russell Wilson the 3rd. 4th for Dak Prescott. Think a good strategy would be to draft a guy every year and churn through until you find a good one or jump on a can't miss guy if you get the chance. Clearly there are no can't miss guys in this draft. Rather see if they could get value on a Watson or Kizer in the second than reach at 3 when quarterback development is so hit or miss.
Brees was barely a second rounder. However, the second round at least has some reliable success. It's much lower than the first round but you can at least have a hope that a player there becomes good.

The other guys come around about once every 5 years for every team in the league. That means that over the next 5 years the Bears have a 1/32 chance of getting them. Those odds are absolutely horrible. They could draft a quarterback in the fourth round every year and if they are lucky the best one would be a Kyle Orton-type player.


I get what you are saying, it just would not be my strategy. The Rams won a Super Bowl with a guy they found on the street. Tony Romo was another one who was a Pro Bowl performer out of no where. It seems like finding a quarterback is really random, and with something like the third pick in the draft they should spend it on a guy they know is going to perform. I see what you are saying about the value of the position, but I don't think there is a greater likelihood for success if you draft a guy in the first round just because he's the highest rated quarterback to come out that year.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:13 pm 
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I am a huge fan of the keep drafting QB's until you don't fuck it up plan.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:17 pm 
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312player wrote:
Rick, stop..please.. If Jacksonville drafter Mack, or Odell Beckham or mike Evans with their first pick and Carr with the second pick..their team looks much different.
That would be because they found a quarterback though and the best chance for that is with a first round pick. Obviously, with hindsight, we can cherry pick players like that. It still goes to show that getting the quarterback is that important. If the Jags do the same draft but get Mack or Beckham they still probably suck.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:18 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
The problem with drafting a quarterback so high is that it can set back the franchise for years, and it strongly appears that NFL teams do not know how to identify quarterbacks.
The thing is that it doesn't really set a franchise back for years especially with the new rookie pay structure. You are probably going to suck if you don't have a quarterback or if you draft a quarterback and they are bad. Even if you are good, you are basically destined to be the Texans who have many championship type pieces with no chance of getting anywhere close to the championship. It's easy to look back in hindsight and say "The Jaguars suck because Bortles sucked" but they couldn't have drafted anyone else that would have changed that either.

Also, quarterbacks have by far the longest careers and also stay with their own teams instead of hitting free agency and leaving most of the time for more money.

That is why I advocate taking a first round graded quarterback even if you have to overdraft them a little. If they are truly a lower first round talent then trade down some and still get them.

WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. Brees was in the second. Russell Wilson the 3rd. 4th for Dak Prescott. Think a good strategy would be to draft a guy every year and churn through until you find a good one or jump on a can't miss guy if you get the chance. Clearly there are no can't miss guys in this draft. Rather see if they could get value on a Watson or Kizer in the second than reach at 3 when quarterback development is so hit or miss.
Brees was barely a second rounder. However, the second round at least has some reliable success. It's much lower than the first round but you can at least have a hope that a player there becomes good.

The other guys come around about once every 5 years for every team in the league. That means that over the next 5 years the Bears have a 1/32 chance of getting them. Those odds are absolutely horrible. They could draft a quarterback in the fourth round every year and if they are lucky the best one would be a Kyle Orton-type player.


I get what you are saying, it just would not be my strategy. The Rams won a Super Bowl with a guy they found on the street. Tony Romo was another one who was a Pro Bowl performer out of no where. It seems like finding a quarterback is really random, and with something like the third pick in the draft they should spend it on a guy they know is going to perform. I see what you are saying about the value of the position, but I don't think there is a greater likelihood for success if you draft a guy in the first round just because he's the highest rated quarterback to come out that year.


Doing that turns you into the Texans. A good team that will never win a SuperBowl.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:20 pm 
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I understand Rick's argument and the reasoning but I would be suicidal if the Bears got another Cade or equivalent 1st round QB bust.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:21 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:

The other guys come around about once every 5 years for every team in the league. That means that over the next 5 years the Bears have a 1/32 chance of getting them. Those odds are absolutely horrible. They could draft a quarterback in the fourth round every year and if they are lucky the best one would be a Kyle Orton-type player.


5 of the 12 starting QBs in the playoffs this year were not 1st round QBs. Let's not act like successful starting QBs outside the first round are like getting struck by lightning.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:22 pm 
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Suicidal? I mean this franchise is pretty much at rock bottom already.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:23 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:

Doing that turns you into the Texans. A good team that will never win a SuperBowl.


Uhhh, as someone who lives in Houston I'd like to suggest we stop lionizing the Texans.

They've won the AFC South the past two years. That's not a very good accomplishment.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:27 pm 
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One Post wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:

Doing that turns you into the Texans. A good team that will never win a SuperBowl.


Uhhh, as someone who lives in Houston I'd like to suggest we stop lionizing the Texans.

They've won the AFC South the past two years. That's not a very good accomplishment.


Ever frequent the St James?

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:29 pm 
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Hank Scorpio wrote:
One Post wrote:
Hank Scorpio wrote:

Doing that turns you into the Texans. A good team that will never win a SuperBowl.


Uhhh, as someone who lives in Houston I'd like to suggest we stop lionizing the Texans.

They've won the AFC South the past two years. That's not a very good accomplishment.


Ever frequent the St James?


Too far north for me, but there are similar places in town that I have occasioned to enter.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:41 pm 
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One Post wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:

The other guys come around about once every 5 years for every team in the league. That means that over the next 5 years the Bears have a 1/32 chance of getting them. Those odds are absolutely horrible. They could draft a quarterback in the fourth round every year and if they are lucky the best one would be a Kyle Orton-type player.


5 of the 12 starting QBs in the playoffs this year were not 1st round QBs. Let's not act like successful starting QBs outside the first round are like getting struck by lightning.
Outside of the first and second round, it's pretty close to that with the first round being much more likely to work.

Look at the draft years of Brady, Wilson, and Prescott. The Texans don't count because they both suck. The Raiders would have been good with Carr but even he was the 36th pick. Obviously, that can't count as a first round pick because, well, it wasn't a first round pick, but it was a heck of a lot closer to the first round than to Brady, Wilson, or Prescott.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:55 pm 
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In terms of QB, the Bears have to be open to every option. Free Agency, trade, draft...hell, I'd bring Manziel in if he is cleared to play. I'd certainly be in contact with the Patriots to see what Garapollo will cost.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:13 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
One Post wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:

The other guys come around about once every 5 years for every team in the league. That means that over the next 5 years the Bears have a 1/32 chance of getting them. Those odds are absolutely horrible. They could draft a quarterback in the fourth round every year and if they are lucky the best one would be a Kyle Orton-type player.


5 of the 12 starting QBs in the playoffs this year were not 1st round QBs. Let's not act like successful starting QBs outside the first round are like getting struck by lightning.
Outside of the first and second round, it's pretty close to that with the first round being much more likely to work.

Look at the draft years of Brady, Wilson, and Prescott. The Texans don't count because they both suck. The Raiders would have been good with Carr but even he was the 36th pick. Obviously, that can't count as a first round pick because, well, it wasn't a first round pick, but it was a heck of a lot closer to the first round than to Brady, Wilson, or Prescott.


I'm with you on Carr being a near first round pick. It's easy to see a few things happening and him going at the tail end of the first round. But I think that's the resistance here. If the Bears take a QB at #3, they are shoehorning a QB into that slot even though it's a huge overdraft. I don't think you'd have nearly as much resistance if the Bears were picking 27th and you wanted (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. There are just to many elite talents in the top 3 of a draft to burn the pick on a bad QB. I'm fine with the Bears rolling the dice in round 2 with a QB, because even at the top end of the second round you're dealing with a lot less of sure things regardless of position.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 12:54 am 
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my entire drive in this morning featured callers and host in agreement that the bears MUST contact the pats and possibly give up a 1st round pick for garrapolo.... a few even willing to give up pick #3 for him.... insanity. the pats needed him to start 4 games and he couldnt even make it through 3 games before getting hurt. You are going to give up that high an asset to acquire a guy with 2.5 games under his belt? sure he could be the next tony romo.. he also more likely be the next rick mirer. no no no no. not even for a 2nd round pick.

build a stellar offensive and defensive line.... why are bear fans unwilling to grasp this concept? invest high picks in your line and if you can evaluate talent properly you will eventually have a rock solid foundation off which you can fill in the rest with middling talent


Last edited by billypootons on Tue Jan 24, 2017 1:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 1:00 am 
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billypootons wrote:
my entire drive in this morning featured callers and host in agreement that the bears MUST contact the pats and possibly give up a 1st round pick for garrapolo.... a few even willing to give up pick #3 for him.... insanity. the pats needed him to start 4 games and he couldnt even make it through 3 games before getting hurt. You are going to give up that high an asset to acquire a guy with 2.5 games under his belt? sure he could be the next tony romo.. he also more likely be the next rick mirer. no no no no. not even for a 2nd round pick.

build a stellar offensive and defensive line.... why are bear fans unwilling to grasp this concept? invest high picks in your line and if you can evaluate talent properly you will eventually have a rock solid foundation off which you can fill in with middling talent


Agreed. The Jim Finks approach.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 1:12 am 
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I've heard Waddle say Jimmy G is going to be great and we should cough up the first round pick for him. Waddle is a fucking meathead, I'd never do that.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2017 1:33 pm 
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DannyB wrote:
billypootons wrote:
my entire drive in this morning featured callers and host in agreement that the bears MUST contact the pats and possibly give up a 1st round pick for garrapolo.... a few even willing to give up pick #3 for him.... insanity. the pats needed him to start 4 games and he couldnt even make it through 3 games before getting hurt. You are going to give up that high an asset to acquire a guy with 2.5 games under his belt? sure he could be the next tony romo.. he also more likely be the next rick mirer. no no no no. not even for a 2nd round pick.

build a stellar offensive and defensive line.... why are bear fans unwilling to grasp this concept? invest high picks in your line and if you can evaluate talent properly you will eventually have a rock solid foundation off which you can fill in with middling talent


Agreed. The Jim Finks approach.



Get and ass kicking franchise QB and you can fill in the rest with middling talent. Here are the front 7 and olines for both the Patriots and Falcons.

DE Brooks Reed - 2nd rounder drafted by Texans
DT Jonathan Babineaux - 2nd Rounder Falcons
DT Grady Jarrett - 5th rounder Falcons
DE Tyson Jackson 1st rounder Chiefs
LB Vic Beasley 1st rounder Falcons
LB Deion Jones 2nd rounder Falcons
LB De'Vondre Campbell 4th Rounder Falcons

LT Jake Matthews 1st rounder Falcon
LG Andy Levitre 2nd Rounder Bills
C Alex Mack 1st rounder Browns
RG Chris Chester 2nd rounder ravens
RT Ryan Schraeder - UDFA Falcons


LT - Nate Solder - 1st rounder Patriots
LG - Joe Thuney - 3rd rounder Patriots
C - David Andrews - UDFA Patriots
RG - Shaq Mason - 4th rounder Patriots
RT - Marcus Cannon 5th rounder Patriots

LDE - Chris Long - 1st rounder Rams
DT - Alan Branch 2nd rounder Cardinals
DT - Malcom Brown 1st rounder Patriots
RDE - Trey Flowers 4th rounder Patriots
LB - Shea McClellin - 1st rounder Bears(Lol)
LB - Dont'a Hightower 1st rounder Patriots
LB - Rob Ninkovich 5th Rounder Saints

7 out of 24 positions were 1st or second round picks by their orginal team. Both these team assembled their "Trenches" via some high picks but a majority of this was a combo of

Big time free agent signings(like Alex Mack by the Falcons)
Savy middle to late round picks.
Scrap heaps from other teams.

The common denominator of course..elite QB play.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:55 am 
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Here is a 7 round mock for the Bears for whatever it's worth: http://draftwire.usatoday.com/2017/01/3 ... ock-draft/

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:41 am 
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Mahomes will be gone by Round 3.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:27 pm 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
Mahomes will be gone by Round 3.


He's not the most NFL-ready but he's smart and accurate with the best arm and a quick release?

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:59 pm 
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Sure?


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 3:50 pm 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
Sure?


I was just quoting the guy who wrote the article.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
Sure?


I was just quoting the guy who wrote the article.


Just giving you the business, Doc.


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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:30 pm 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
Sure?


I was just quoting the guy who wrote the article.


Just giving you the business, Doc.


You aren't the best poster here. You're just the smartest, most insightful, most clever, and funniest.

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 Post subject: Re: With the #3 Pick...
PostPosted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:39 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
Sure?


I was just quoting the guy who wrote the article.


Just giving you the business, Doc.


You aren't the best poster here. You're just the smartest, most insightful, most clever, and funniest.


This is one of these moments where I'm not sure what's going on.


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