Practical Joke is a nice horse but he's a miler. The Preakness should be a two horse race between Always Dreaming and Battle of Midway unless Hollendorfer ducks to wait for a better spot.

Laurence Holmes is a fucking weirdo, a nerd in denial, and a wannabe. Not a very good radio host either.

I think you can throw out the Derby results because of the mud. Classic Empire got banged around and still finished fourth. Hence was never a factor because of a bad start and subsequent traffic. Both are set to run again in the Preakness. Sure, I like the Mark Casse's revenge angle. In reading all the stories leading up to the Derby, he wanted to win the most. It will be interesting to see whether Casse sends State of Honor as well. That horse would also have a chance in the Preakness.

As for Practical Joke being a miler, he was a miler that beat fifteen other horses in the Derby, despite getting the 19 post. I would like him in the Preakness. The early line on him apparently is 18-1, which would be a great price. Chad Brown is money.

Interesting that Gunnevera trainer, Antonio Sano, is switching jockeys from J. Castellano to Mike Smith. Of all the Derby performances, Gunnevera's was the most disappointing. He had the smart money on him, too, with the odds beaten down to 9-1 from 15-1. He was the Washington Post's top pick. The trainer seems like a real survivor. If there's anyone that can bounce back, it's him.

I would not discount Multiplier, the Illinois Derby Winner. He's got excellent late speed that will keep him close to Always Dreaming down the stretch. I would buy him all day at 10-1. Dandelions, not quite.

I can't see anyone winning this race other than Always Dreaming or Classic Empire.

Always dreaming will be fool's gold in the Preakness on a fast track.

He won't finish worse than second.

Where have you gone Aloma's Ruler? Our nation turns it's lonely eyes to you

"Multiplier ran the Illinois Derby in a swift 1:47.98 for 1 1/8 miles over a fast main track, the second-fastest time in the race’s 59-year history, coming with a determined run down the stretch to win by a head in his stakes debut. It was nearly five lengths back to third-place finisher It’s Your Nickel.

JORR, don't tell me you're not going to bet this Hawthorne winner. You're Mr. Hawthorne!

My honest impression is that when Multiplier finished the Illinois Derby he looked like he was sprinting on grass. Lights out!

I'm not impessed with Muliplier and I'd be shocked if he hit the board in Baltimore.

Rosario has two seconds, a third and a fourth place finish in five tries in the Preakness. The new owners of Multiplier know what they're doing hiring him, short of getting V. Espinoza.

I'm not making the same mistake by taking three or four horses, like I did in the Derby, when I should have just bet Always Dreaming. It's going to be Multiplier across, plus some exotics. I think it will come down to Always Dreaming, Classic Empire, Multiplier and Royal Mo. Stevens has spoken very highly of his horse, who placed 3rd in the San Anita.

Fuck Victor "Five Wide" Espinoza. Anyway, I have yet to see a jockey carry a horse.

we should be a smart enough group to hit a pick 6 or 4 what do you say?

I'm a big dumb shitlib baby

Laurence Holmes is a fucking weirdo, a nerd in denial, and a wannabe. Not a very good radio host either.

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-doings-energetic-always-dreaming-arrives-pimlico

Illinois Derby winner Multiplier will run for new owners in the Preakness Stakes. He will also have a new jockey, as Joel Rosario has been given the mount.

Gary Barber, Adam Wachtel, and George Kerr purchased Multiplier from American Equistock about 10 days ago. The horse will remain with trainer Brendan Walsh.

Wachtel was part-owner of Exaggerator, the 2016 Preakness winner, and said there was a lot to like regarding Multiplier.

“Obviously, his Illinois Derby was a big effort,” Wachtel said. “Looking at his sheet numbers, he had a great-looking Ragozin line. We really liked his video.”

Multiplier, a son of The Factor, has won 2 of 4 starts, including the Illinois Derby by a head over Hedge Fund on April 22.

“Having to take on nice horses like Always Dreaming and Classic Empire, the advantage is that we got a little extra rest,” Wachtel said. “That and we think we got a nice colt. As of today, we plan to give it a try.”

Later Tuesday afternoon, Wachtel confirmed that Rosario will ride Multiplier in the Belmont. Rosario replaces James Graham, who rode Multiplier to victory in the Illinois Derby.

Wachtel said he has good luck with Rosario, noting that he rode Tourist to victory in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. Rosario also rode Long On Value to a close second in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint on the Dubai World Cup undercard.

FYI
Since 2000 only 3 horse that didn't run in the Derby -Red Bullet- Bernardini-Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness

Thank you. But it's not going to dissuade me from sticking with Multiplier, simply because the odds are too good for a horse with that speed, if he stays around 20-1. In a ten horse field, I think he has a legitimate shot. Your data mining (3 wins/16 tries) suggests his chance is better than the straight odds or the M/L odds, though we don't know the total number of non-Derby Preakness entries during that 16 year period.

And the fact that he has one more week of rest over the favorites should help him, not hurt him, right?

I don't want to dissuade you, but Multiplier just isn't the same caliber of horse as many of these in here.

I know. I've talked about the "class trap" I fallen into before. My feeling now is that speed trumps class in certain situations, and one of those situations might be unfolding in the Preakness.

Always Dreaming didn't exactly have a lot of class going into the Kentucky Derby with only the one G1 win in the Florida Derby. And yet a number of us here thought he was the best horse based on how he ran in that race. That thinking proved right, when it would have been more prudent to take a horse with multiple graded stakes wins like Classic Empire, Irish War Cry and Gormely for their consistency. You yourself picked Always Dreaming in the Florida Derby, JORR, without him having any class history, which I congratulated you on at the time. Why couldn't Multiplier get lucky in this race, who does at least have the G3 Illinois Derby win?

If you're running 1 1/8 mi. in under 1:48 on dirt like Multiplier did at Hawthorne, that's fast. Again, 2nd fastest time in the history of that race. And he did it all on the back end, which will only help him in the 1/16 mi. longer Preakness.

Lastly, as I've posted about, new ownership with a previous Preakness win bought Multiplier after Illinois. They must have payed a pretty penny for him to get him when they did. Doesn't that ring a bell that the horse is for real?

When you talk to some speed handicappers or sheets players, they'll tell you that "class" doesn't exist. But good horses often win in slow times. It's sort of like my argument about pitchers and W/L record. Multiplier may be able to run 1-3/16 miles in 1:56. But if the race goes in 1:58 he's gonna be behind Always Dreaming and Classic Empire. They have more class. And I won't even say Multiplier or a horse like him could never beat Always Dreaming or Classic Empire, but he's just in too deep in a field like this. There are too many horses better than he is in the race. even if three of them have bad days/bad trips, there are three or four more that he is unlikely to beat.