Watching this SD/Gonzaga game, SD just hangs around, and then goes on a run to take the lead late in the 1st half....This home court is really paying off for them.

tough beat on SD. I figured with 90 seconds to go, we had a 70% chance of winning. another random end game ending.

Tuesday
567/568 Western Kentucky-Middle Tenn State UNDER 137, 1*
Another game here in which both teams are playing their third game in three days. The two games these teams played during the season scored 113 and 137 (lined 147.5 and 138.5), but MTSU kept the pace to 122 and 136. And the second game’s score and pace was skewed greatly by the over-officious refs as the teams combined for 65 FT attempts in that one. As we have seen in several other games, the pace slows down a bit in these champ. games and the 3/3 fatigue factor does often affect shooting % (particularly in the 2nd half). I’ll play this 3/3 under angle again.

The Madness really starts tomorrow. A lot of conference tourney games each of the next five days. First ones tip off at 11 am each day. Strap it on boys. Let's build the bankroll.

Now 6-2 on March totals on CSFMB. This is it for the afternoon. I may have one for the night card. I expect this one will move a little.

747/748 Tulsa-East Carolina OVER 136.5, 1*
East Carolina comes into this tourney on a bit of a roll, winning 3 of its last four and scoring 75, 75, 84 and 83 points in those last four games. In fact, in six of its last 7 games, ECU has surpassed 100 OE (1 point per possession). This kind of thing sometimes happens with first-year coaches as teams kick it into a higher gear at the end of the season. And make no mistake, ECU Coach Mac McCarthy (former Chattanooga coach who took the Mocs to the Sweet 16) knows how to get his teams going in March. It’s a good thing ECU is scoring, because its defense is not very good. ECU allowed 8 of its last 9 opponents over 100 OE, and the only team it held under that was cellar-dwellar Rice. Tulsa is a very efficient offensive team, going over 100 OE in 11 straight games. Defensively, they had some outstanding games at home, but they weren’t nearly as dominant away. These teams average essentially the same pace, 134 possessions/game. So if they hit that pace, this should go over with Tulsa, especially, likely going over 110 OE. The one game these teams played was interesting. It was a brickfest, with both teams shooting under 38%. Even so, there were 127 points scored (66-61 Tulsa) in that 128possession game that was lined at 135. That was Tulsa’s worst offensive game of the year shooting-wise and was its one of only two games in February and March in which Tulsa didn’t score at least 70. I’m looking for both teams to hit that 70 mark here.

I'm 62% on totals, but under .500 for the year on sides (29-32) so I play sides much smaller than totals. Playing these this afternoon:
St. Louis +6
East Carolina +10

Might have another total tonight.

Good call on SLU

not a good call on east carolina. talk about a team peeing down its leg. 25% shooting. ugggh.

Sounds like you are looking at an under.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

765/766 Northern Arizona-Portland State UNDER 143.5, 1*
Here we go again. Two teams playing their third game in three days for the conference championship. As is the case with previous matchups fitting this angle (except for a few in which the lines were pinched severely) I'm playing this angle again. While Portland State likes to play faster, NAU has been grinding more and more this season. The Lumberjacks had only 4 Bitg Sky games all year with 140 possessions, and lately they have been under 130/game. In the two games this season, the teams scored 146 and 139 on 138 and 128 possessions. And the games only had 94 and 100 shots. Those games were lined 145 and 143, so this is a fair number for a neutral court game (Rose Garden in POrtland). Both games had excellent shooting. As with many champ. games, I expect a slightly slower pace and slightly below average shooting tonight.

Wednesday splits. split the two totals and split the two sides. Maybe a profit tomorrow. WIll probably have a total tomorrow, but already on two early sides...

One morning side I'm already on. I will likely have a total or two after they are all posted..maybe manana.

Overall record:
Season 89-69-4, +22.6
Sides 29-32-1; Totals 60-37-3

Iowa -110 ML vs. Michigan, 1*
Iowa is a better shooting team (43/40), a better defensive team (40/46) and a better rebounding team (+2/-2). Michigan also does not defend the trey very well (39%) and Iowa will shoot 20 of them. Maybe part of the reason for all this is that Iowa is a seemingly much more disciplined team. They split the season series, each winning at the other's place, but in the game Iowa lost, they had ten more shots but couldn't throw it in the ocean that night (35%).

LSU -1 vs. South Carolina, 1*
LSU won 4 straight after their coach got fired, reflecting a new attitude that they seem to like this guy. Their old coach Brady? Not so much. The final game loss at tourney bound Miss. State is no great disgrace. They shot poorly on the road. It happens. South Carolina is losing its coach, who is retiring, and it seems like the team has retired for about a month now. They have lost 5 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 10. LSU beat USC by 7 in Columbia a few weeks ago in a game in which LSU held the Cocks to just 34%shooting and outrebounded them by 12. Two teams going in opposite directions at seasons' end.

Have you ever seen a team come out in the first half of their conference tournament and look more disinterested than this Iowa team?

My disgust for Todd Lickliter and his 1950s approach to basketball grows by the day. The players look like they just want to end the season and get away from their snarling coach and his boring brand of hoops. I should have...no I DO...know better than to back his sorry ass and his teams. Peter Principle in action. Just another in a long line of mid major coaches who can get marginally talented kids to over-achieve but doesn't know what to do with more talented kids. Losing to this Michigan team is just ridiculous. And the long-term question is just what kind of kids will want to play for this dolt? Probably marginally talented ones who will get a chance to play at a major program rather than the midmajor ones they probably deserve. The slow death march of Hawkeye hoops has begun.

The "Butler ball" style may work in the Horizon league, but it doesn't work in major conference ball. Thad Matta was smart enough to realize that. He left Butler and then went to Xavier and created a new offense entirely and then went to Ohio State with a somewhat modified approach. He has more talented kids at OSU than at Butler and his offense plays to those strengths. He's not fitting more talented players into his "system". Hopefully Lickliter will realize this before he kills the Iowa program for a decade.

If I ever bet on a Lickliter-coached Iowa team again, hit me. Hard. Remind me of this joke of a game and what a pathetic display his team put on. 47 points against Michigan? How embarrassing. They had no clue how to work for a good shot and kept chucking up jump shots. Pathetic. Ok. on to some winners. LSU is behind, but at least they seem interested and seem to have a coach who is at least living in the current decade.

I should stick with what I'm good at. Totals.

Marquette-Notre Dame OVER 146, 1*
Line moved down from 150 opener reflecting that there are a few guys carpet bombing every under on the board. This is an exception I believe. BOth games these teams played were fast-paced affairs with spot up three point shooters, slashers from Marquette and Gody scoring inside for the Irish. The Dame plays up and down and isn't a great defensive team. Marquette has just the slashers and shooters to take advantage.

Horrible effort by UCONN. This team really struggles to score sometimes, and I don't see why everyone sees them making noise in the Tourney. Way to many foul calls in the game. Getting 2 points, and they get banged by a unranked team, coming off a game yesterday. Horrible.

When a team finishes the year 2-6 with 2 wins versus Northwestern - something ain't right.

Small play on LaSalle-Temple OVER 146.5. More tomorrow.

Now 9-4 on this board on totals in March. One for 11 am Friday:

Tennessee-South Carolina OVER 144, 1
The Vols will make it a track meet and in the two games they played this year the Gamecocks showed no desire to slow it down. South Carolina won today because LSU shot badly, not because they played any defense. Vols will go over 80. The question is whether SC will get to 65. I think so.

More later friday. Looking at Illini-Purdue over, but want to wait til am to look more at that.

Gracias. After the last three minutes of the first half I went to bed confident even though they had only scored 70

Half way home at 81 and the game is close. So far, so good.

1/3 the usual bet for my only Friday night totals action.

Nevada-New Mexico State OVER 152
Last night I had a few, this morning I had one and here is another. Two teams that will play fast, shoot well and that have defensive issues. Two games this season were 10+ points over this. Aggies at home which helps too.

Strong opinion/small play on Georgetown -3. But I suck at sides. The world loves the revenge angle for West Virginia. I love JT3 and Hibbard.

Got all of them on Friday. There are 5 games on saturday in which both teams are playing its third game in three days, and there are 3 games in which one team is playing 3 in 3 and their opponent is playing their 4th game in 4 days. I'll be looking at those totals when they are posted in the morning and if the numbers aren't pinched, I'll be going under in those.

Early Saturday action
Tulsa-Memphis UNDER 135-1/2, 1*
You probably could have guessed this one. The CUSA Champ. game is one I’ve played under many times. Memphis is playing its third game in three days and Tulsa its fourth in four. And the CUSA championship is typically played at this same early 10:30 am central time start. The two games these teams played this season were lined at 136.5 and 140. The scores were 82-67 and 56-41 and the pace was 128 and 116. So the number is a fair one and hasn’t been pinched as some totals have been the last two weeks. These teams rank #1 and # 2 in CUSA in defensive efficiency (2 and 51 nationally). With the 3/3,4/4 fatigue factor, the championship game environment and two excellent defenses playing early in the morning with tired bodies, I’m expecting a slower than usual pace and worse than average shooting.

Tennessee-Arkansas OVER 146.5, 1*
I've been on the VOls over several times this year. Arkansas is a respectable defense, which holds this number down, but the only times the Vols have really been held down offensively is when the opponent rally slows down the pace. Arkansas didn’t slow it down the first time they played, a 93-71 Vols win with 154 possessions. There wasn’t even a foul fest in that game, but it was a blowout. Tenn. is first in the SEC in pace, averaging 71.7 possessions/game and Ark. Is 4th at. 68. So while a raw average says 140 possessions, two high paced teams usually results in an above-average number. 150 possessions is possible in this game and of course higher numbers are possible with a foul fest. With both teams consistently producing well over 100 OE because they get so many of their points in transition, 140 possessions likely will be plenty to get this there. I’d make this line 153, so would play this up to 148.

Note the Tennessee game is now being played tonight at Georgia Tech's arena, not the Georgia Dome. I still like the over, but not as much as I liked it last night.

755/756 Georgia-Kentucky UNDER 125.5, 1*
This is a fair number and a weird situation. These teams are playing last night's game this morning in Georgia Tech's arena after the tornado hit the Georgia Dome. They haven't had any shootaround in this gym and haven't played a game there this year. They come in there this morning after being ready to go last night, have few fans other than their families and cheerleaders there. Just a strange situation and hard to see the usual momentum, energy or shooting percentage. Kentucky will play slow anyway, but with the prospect of the winner playing another game tonight, I can't see them wanting to expend a lot of energy.

nice 2-0 early. i backed down my vols over play that is now going tonight. they are playing this game at a different venue with few fans. won't be a lot of energy in the house. might have another total tonight.

Tough loss with UCLA. Stanford calls a timeout to ice the free throw shooter and the damn kid comes out and shoots a air ball, allowing Stanford to come down and get a lay up that keeps them within 3.