.625 W% 3.08 ERA 2 WS wins

You wouldn't say "he performed well" ?

I was talking about performing well in the postseason last year. He walked 10 batters in 2 outings. They could have won both gamea BUT that isn't the Arrieta we know and most importantly that isn't the guy you want to give $28M a year to.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

That is the great unknown. Can he regain control? Cobb seemingly was on his way here (and still may be) before he's gotten greedy wanting 17M per and 4 years min. For 13M/4 yeah not bad but 17?? Lynn is just a 3/4 so not really interested in him.

It's all a big game of who blinks first now. All teams are wary of offering crazy money/years now unless it's a Kershaw...

The guys on MLB Radio were saying this afternoon that they felt that Boras was still holding out for a 5th year and betting that the Cardinals would crack and give it to him. I guess that means 5/130.

I could see Theo offering Jake a 5th year which vests with performance which is consistent with being a solid #2 for 4 straight years (e.g top 15 starter in IP, FIP, etc.), but with the flipside being a cheap 5th year team option (like $5M) if it doesn't vest or if he spends more than 100 games on the DL.

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"When people want their version of the truth, they go find it, no matter how baseless their beliefs." -- Ken Rosenthal

Jake is just a really good 3 at this juncture so money being money go younger or less for more so Lynn makes sense for a couple or 3 cheap. He ain't getting paid big by nobody this go round.

I'll pass on jake

Lot of people being dumb.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Cubs need to stick 4 years. Club-friendly 5th-year option might be necessary for optics though.

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Lay off that whiskey and let that cocaine be.

Let it be a vesting option. Give him two performance based vesting options. There is no reason the contract can't become a 6 year deal if he is performing well. The reason you want 3 or 4 years guaranteed is to mitigate risk.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

2018: $26MM
2019: $27MM
2020: $29MM
2021: $30MM
2022 (club option or vesting clause): $31MM if he pitches 200 innings in 2021 or 350 innings between 2020 and 2021, or if ranks in top 5 of Cy Young voting in 2019, 2020 or 2021, or starts 3 postseason games in 2021
2023 (club option or vesting clause): $31.5MM if he pitches 180 innings in 2022, ranks in Top 5 of Cy Young voting in 2022, or starts 3 postseason games in 2022

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

You're thinking with your heart.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

Not at all. I won't deny being a huge fan of his. But out of any 31, almost 32, year old pitcher, I would bet on Jake Arrieta's durability into his mid 30's. 4 years guaranteed is the cost of doing business to sign any #1 or #2 starter, and the Cubs need one. So now that that is out of the way, $112MM isn't an overpay. Darvish would be looking at the same amount. But Arrieta has proven he can pitch and win big postseason games for this team and he is comfortable here. Then 2022 and 2023 only vest if Arrieta continues to pitch that way.

The Cubs are in a window. It isn't my money or your money. The Cubs have it, and it won't prevent Harper next season. They have to pony up and get one of these guys. I prefer Arrieta. However, if you prefer Darvish, those same contract details could be used.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

If it were a binary choice I would take Arrieta in a heartbeat. I would rather gamble on a Cobb and to a lesser extent Lynn. Not the same upside but definitely less risk of exploding in my face. I love Jake but believe that we would regret the deal in Year 1.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

This is a dumb question but isn't the reason for all the "revenue streams" and ads in Wrigley to be able to pay for guys like this?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

You think Lance Lynn is a SAFER option? His peripherals and advanced statistics hint at 5.00+ ERA seasons in his future.

I could agree that, for the cost, Cobb COULD be a safer option. But I'm trying to win a bunch of World Series, and I need a dude with cajones in big pressure situations.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

The Chicago Cubs had the highest Opening Day 25-Man payroll in 2017. The Cubs have increased their payroll in multiple consecutive seasons and seem to be doing the same in 2018 and 2019. However, the Cubs do not want to hit the luxury tax this year as it seems as if they plan on hitting it in 2019 and for a couple of seasons after that. So if they do sign Arrieta or Darvish, that might eliminate some additional moves (bullpen) until the midseason trading deadline, as they have earmarked approximately $10MM for that.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Where are you getting that?

The link I found has them at #8 for 2017 opening day.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Oh I see. The Cubs were 8th in payroll but had less players on the disabled list and other reasons why the opening day roster would be higher. By the end of the year, they were 6th in 25 man payroll.

Still though, as IMU once argued that the Cubs didn't spend a ton of money to get their World Series, it is interesting that he is now trying to argue that the Cubs spend more than anyone as they are #1 in opening day 25 man payroll.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Agreed.

Cobb or Arrieta better bets to come through in the post season, so if Cobb wants the big money, why not get a proven front of the rotation guy over a 3/4 who is an unknown in the post season? Or are they putting the Jake offer out there to get Cobb to take less knowing he wants to be here??

Seems like an odd rumor to me.
I don't want Arrieta at those prices. The only guy he could conceivably replace is Wainwright, who then would be making like $20MM to pitch in the bullpen.

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1926-1931-1934-1942-1944-1946-1964-1967-1982-2006-2011

I argue that the Cubs did not "buy" their World Series, yes. In 2016, they had the 6th highest payroll. Considering they are a major market team in essentially a one team town, that isn't an enormously large amount of money to spend. My point is that the Cubs have increased player payroll after gaining additional revenue streams. The owner is fiscally responsible and at the same time dedicated to winning. Great franchise.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

The Cubs are the second most popular baseball team in the city they play in.

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So why mention that they were #1 in payroll in 2017, unless of course you were skewing the numbers and weren't trying to argue that the Cubs spent a ton of money to win a title?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I'm not aware that the Cubs won the title in 2017?

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

You cited the payroll of the team being #1 in MLB in the very first game they played after winning the World Series. Yeah, how dare I think that there may be some connection.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Frank doesn't recognize anything north of I-55 as being Chicago.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

It's like 50/50 post 2016 where Frank and I live (deep I'm Sox country)

We don't live in Chicago, do we?

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Didn't say or imply that we did.

Quote the contrary.