leashyourkids wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Dignified Rube wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Justify looks real tough. He's got that swagger on the course you see from a Derby winner.
Yeah, and it's obvious he's the fastest horse.
That 1 1/8 mi. time of 1:49.72 was slow at San Anita. I wouldn't consider him the fastest horse among all the contenders.
It has to be Mendlesohn, with Audible and Magnum Moon very close.
I'm pulling for My Boy Jack to get in the Derby.
Nobody has figs like Justify. Of course, there's more to racing than raw speed. But it's hard to argue that Justify isn't the fastest three year old so far this year.
What
are the characteristics of the best horse? What makes a horse a better stalker/sprinter etc?
Most races are sprints. The modern horse is bred for speed rather than stamina. The traditional racing families like the Phippses, the Whitneys, etc. bred their own horses for sport rather than for sale and they built classic pedigrees over time. Today the vast majority of horses are sprinters.
When you add drugs to the mix you have many horses that can't relax. They just want to go as fast as they can. That's not a good race horse. The jock needs to be able to use the horse's speed when he asks for it. But it doesn't do much good to wrestle a wound up horse. He just wears himself out fighting the boy.
There are several things that make the Kentucky Derby so special:
1) Everyone who has a capable horse is pointing for it.
2) None of the horses has ever gone a mile and a quarter before (usually).
3) It's relatively early in the three year old season and horses are still developing.
4) It's a larger field than any of them have ever- and probably will ever- race in.
I'm generally not big on pedigree once horses have started racing. Once you have past performance you don't really need pedigree. But with a race like the Derby when horses are being asked to go the classic distance for the first time (for some it may be the only time), it can be a useful tool.
The most successful female families in the Derby in recent years are Family No. 23(b) and Family No. 1. Members of these families have won an inordinate number of Derbies. Also horses with a male line descending from Raise A Native win far more than should be expected. And I don't believe a horse descending from Storm Cat in his male line has ever won a Derby, though a few have come close. I think they are 0 for 51. Some guys argue that it's a small sample, but I don't really want to be betting 0 for 51 at a short price like Justify will be. Finally, Buckpasser showing up on the female side suggests an ability to win the Derby as such horses win far more than their statistical expectation.
Then there's the ability to dominant space which is particularly important in a crowded field. If you watch horses in a natural herd out in a field, it's easy to see who the Alpha is. When they run a race, they act just like they would in nature as flight animals. Some defer to others. I would advise watching ears and tails. You can see when a horse is comfortable or uncomfortable.
As I said, I have no doubt that Justify is the fastest horse. He is also very large and appears to be a herd dominating type of horse. But he's never been in a situation where he's been put under real pressure. We'll have to wait until May 5 to find out how he responds to it.
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Keeneland if it's playing out tomorrow like it is today Flameway a tired 3rd.JOR Marconi see who's listed as the jockey?????? The same guy that's going to guide Mendelssohn to a Derby victory
