Final Points Standings:

1. Gronkowski (automatic bid)
2. Magnum Moon (150)
3. Good Magic (134)
4. Audible (110)
5. Noble Indy (110)
6. Vino Rosso (107)
7. Bolt D'Oro (104)
8. Enticed (103)
9. Mendelssohn (100)
10. Justify (100)
11. Quip (90)
12. Flameaway (70)
13. Solomini (54)
14. Bravazo (54)
15. My Boy Jack (52)
16. Promises Fulfilled (52)
17. Free Drop Billy (44)
18. Lone Sailor (42)
19. Hofburg (40)
20. Firenze Fire (39)

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Who's 21, 22 and 23?> Normally a horse or three will drop from the race

Three Assmussen horses- Combatant, Snapper Sinclair, and Reride.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Everyone will look like fools when it is Hofburg.

Female Families and Lathrop Conduit Mares:

1. Gronkowski- 9-f
2. Magnum Moon- 16-g
3. Good Magic- 12-c
4. Audible- 9-e
5. Noble Indy- 1-1
6. Vino Rosso- 2-f
7. Bolt D'Oro- 13-c (Frizette)
8. Enticed- 8-g
9. Mendelssohn- 23-b (Broom Flower)
10. Justify- 1-h
11. Quip- 1-c (Chit Chat)
12. Flameaway- 2-f (Altoviscar)
13. Solomini- 16-g
14. Bravazo- A-10
15. My Boy Jack- 14-e
16. Promises Fulfilled- 7-f
17. Free Drop Billy- 4-m (Audience)
18. Lone Sailor- A-4
19. Hofburg- 2-d (Dazzling)
20. Firenze Fire- 2-f (Altoviscar)

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Final Fractions and Beyer Figs:

1. Gronkowski- N/A
2. Magnum Moon- 36.47, 11.99, 98
3. Good Magic- 38.21, 13.31, 95
4. Audible- 37.46, 12.52, 99
5. Noble Indy- 38.47, 12.82, 95
6. Vino Rosso- 37,59, 12.81, 98
7. Bolt D'Oro- 37.37, 12.96, 102
8. Enticed- 38.27, 13.30, 93
9. Mendelssohn*- 37.47, 12.96, 106
10. Justify- 37.11, 12.70, 107
11. Quip 37.13, 12.33, 92
12. Flameaway- 38.55, 13.31, 93
13. Solomini- 36.81, 12.20, 91
14. Bravazo- 41.91, 15.67, 64
15. My Boy Jack- 37.11, 12.95, 90
16. Promises Fulfilled- 43.71, 15.71, 47
17. Free Drop Billy- 38.46, 13.23, 89
18. Lone Sailor- 38.16, 12.85, 95
19. Hofburg- 37.72, 12.69, 94
20. Firenze Fire- 39.24, 13.45, 81

*1-3/16 mile race, all others 1-1/8 mile

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Matt Crouthers @ TVG has him at 2nd Dignified Boob

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Raise A Native Sire Line:

Good Magic
Vino Rosso
Quip
Solomini
Firenze Fire

Buckpasser X chromosome:

Good Magic
Audible
Vino Rosso
Bolt D'Oro
Bravazo
Hofburg

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

It was a joke, grumpy Walt. I actually like what I've read about Hofburg. But I'm not sure if losing by 2 lengths to Audible in the Florida Derby will get it done in the Kentucky Derby. He wasn't losing ground at the wire, but he wasn't gaining either. It would be quite a feat if Hofburg pulls it off.

There are a lot of things to like about Hofburg, but I would guess that inexperience along with his likely position in the race will be his undoing in the Derby. It would probably be prudent to wait for the Preakness with him, but when you have one that has a legit shot at a Kentucky Derby, you have to take it.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Hofburg Makes A Move In Poll

"This week's biggest move was made by Florida Derby runner-up Hofburg. He's lightly raced with just three starts but comes from the barn of Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who was Churchill Downs' winningest all-time trainer until passed recently by Dale Romans. The Tapit colt advanced from No. 14 to 10th, passing stakes winners Enticed, Flameaway and Quip."

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... es-a-move/

I heard this morning that Gronkowski was scratched due to illness

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Flew too close to the sun on wings of pastrami

Yes had an infection that prevents him from shipping and training.

Quip is also out and will point to the preakness.

Yeah, the same basic ownership group has Audible and Justify. I think they may be making a mistake, as I believe Quip is better suited for the Derby than the other two. But I can understand it from a horseman's viewpoint. It's hard to see how Quip could compete with Justify from a raw speed perspective.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Audible to me is a miler. I agree with your assessment on him. Justify just shows the power that you see from those special horses.

I'm gonna try to do one of those Irish Boy type dissertations on the Derby. Hope someone appreciates it and uses it.

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I'm willing to toss a hundo away.. What do you horse guys suggest?

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I suggest you make your own choice....I would hate for you to blow a yard on my choice

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Just an interesting fact .....not since 1969 has a horse that won the Santa Anita Derby won the Run for the Roses that ran the SA Derby in plus 1:48 ...just sayin

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I've posted a lot of info that will help you make an informed decision.

Here are the impact values:

1. Final 3/8 in 37.8 or less or final 1/4 in 12.8 or less in Big Six Prep: 2.32
2. Raise A Native sire line coupled with No. 1: 3.93
3. Family 23b or Family 1: 2.20
4. Buckpasser X: 2.94
5. Conduit Mare: 4.30

Horses descended from Conduit Mares win 4.3 times more than expectation. Couple that with a fast final fraction in a 1-1/8 mile prep (2.32 times more than expectation) and it's a strong angle.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Bolt D'Oro with a strong work - what do you take away from it?

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... derby-work

Not a whole lot. I always remember Dave Feldman saying, "Good horses will work fast if you want them to." And he's a good horse. But I do notice when something works 3 furlongs in 35. That means he's on his toes for sure.

My biggest concern for Bolt is Ruis. Is that work what was called for? I don't know. If it were Pletcher or Baffert I wouldn't question it. But it took Lukas and Pletcher a long time to figure out how to bring a horse to Louisville in proper order. This is Ruis's first horse like this. I'm guessing his final work will be long and slow. In any case I think he's a major contender.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Using the jockey angle, one of the reasons I like Justify is because Baffert put Mike Smith on it in his 2nd start after he realized he had a beast. Mike Smith is a Hall of Fame jockey, but only has one Derby win under his belt. That's like if LeBron only had one NBA championship to his credit. Great, but you should have more. Not sure how much longer Smith is going to keep riding, but this may be his last real shot at another Derby win. I just hope he doesn't burn up Justify like he did with Bodemeister in 2012.

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That is a good question - sounds like from the quotes that they wanted him to work hard for this one and he will gallop out in the next one.

The way he hung and got blown away by Justify would make me question his desire to go 10 furlongs.

I'm not sure about that. They chose not to engage Justify and let him waltz around as he pleased. Then he got floated wide off the last turn and had to drop back inside to finish. Yeah, Castellano was asking him at the end while Justify was under a hand ride, but I suspect things will be different going an extra furlong and with other horses wanting to push it up front. Also, I love Castellano and I have never been impressed by Espinoza. In 99 out of 100 cases I'd call it a negative rider change. But this may be the 1, as Castellano hasn't really done Bolt any favors the two times he's ridden him. I really wish Ruis had gone back to Nakatani.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I am surprised by how few times the 2 yr. old champ has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Most recently it has been Nyquist, and before that, Street Sense. Classic Empire was the 2 yr. old champ, and he was favored going into the Kentucky Derby last year, but it did not pan out for him. I was hoping there was more of a correlation for Good Magic's chances, but there is not. However, of the workouts I've read about, Good Magic's has been one of the sharpest. He did the half in 48 flat. Curlin sons have done well recently in the Classics with Exaggerator (2nd in the Kentucky Derby, 1st in Preakness) and Irish War Cry (1st in Belmont Stakes).

I continue to read good things about Hofburg. According to one article, he is the "wise guy" horse in the race. Another expert wrote, "I never realized how classy looking Hofburg is and what a regal air he has about him. He trots with his head up, moving like a seasoned show horse, and from that he can quickly grab the bit, drop his head and start his work without missing a beat. In action, he has a nice smooth stride with good extension." In other words, Hofburg looks like a champion.

So, we should discount Justify, because there has never been a Derby winner who didn't run as a two year old? Same for Mendelsohn, when no UAE Dubai Derby winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby? Thundersnow didn't even make it 50 yards!

It's only a hundo, I don't expect to win but it be nice..just lookin for a couple tips that could pay off ..

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I dunno if you are serious or bustin my balls..I have no idea what any of that means

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I color coded the horses on the various lists. For example, horses from the Raise A Native sire line win almost four times as often as we would expect. There are only four left in the race.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Rube, honest question....do you look at every race and decide that you're going to pick a long shot?

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