No. I take what the race gives me. If I can get profitable odds on the favorites, I will take them. But these are the horses that the track often will take away by depressing their odds and by making their expected ROI negative, so that they're losing wagers. Otherwise, I'm looking for value with the 2nd and 3rd favorites.

I thought you were giving us a dissertation? You took the jockey angle with a jockey in Mike Smith that you admit is old and has only won the Kentucky Derby once.

I have not yet decided whom I'm going to take in the Derby, other than Flameaway that I have in the futures. There are some horses like Good Magic, Hofburg and My Boy Jack that I think may do well. All three will be able to handle the distance. They also have good jockeys in Jose Ortiz, Irad Ortiz Jr. and Desormeaux.

i don't like that justify is 2-1 but i guess that's the way it's going to be this year. i like when it's an open field like last year. i was able to do damage control by putting money on always dreaming; it allowed my stupid bets to be neutralized.

i haven't really liked what i've seen for good magic. but, there are a few horses mentioned in this thread that look intriguing. guess it's going to depend on PP's.

not really sure i buy the jockey angle in big races. i've seen mike smith disappear in big ones.

You do realize that the favorite has won the Kentucky Derby 5 years in a row, right?

And also the favorite has won every year since they went to the Points system.

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Classic Empire did not win. And with your favorite this year in Justify, he has a monkey on his back being a horse that did not race as a two-year old, when such a horse has never won the Kentucky Derby in its long history.

That's your dissertation?

I believe Chad Brown when he says that Good Magic is a special horse and the best horse he's had to win the Derby.

Classic Empire wasn't the favorite at post time, come on Rube. He wasn't even the 2nd choice, that was Irish War Cry.



And yes, the fact that the favorite has won 5 times in a row and since the Points system was implemented says a lot!

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I remember Battaglia made Classic Empire the M/L favorite, and he did. If he wasn't the live odds favorite, he was close.

If points is your argument, then why are taking Justify? Magnum Moon is the points leader, followed by Good Magic.

The leader of the Points doesn't mean a damn thing. I'd have to check but I don't believe in the 5 years that the actual "leader" of the points has won the Derby. I'm simply talking about the favorite when they are at the gate, not when the M/L is made. It's just Battaglia's prediction of where he believes the public will bet.

And Justify will not be 2/1. Too much other talent in the field. For one thing, the Euro's are gonna bet heavily on Mendelssohn so that alone may keep Justify at 3/1 or better. Even American Pharoah, who was everyone's favorite, went off just a few cents under 5/2.

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Then you have been talking about two different things, the favorite according to the Derby points and the live odds favorite.

If you are betting on Justify at 2-1 or 5-2, you are paying too much in this deep field. He's a one-time graded stakes winner, having beaten one decent horse in Bolt d'Oro in San Anita in a seven horse field. His negatives are his inexperience and being shipped. Justify is not a slam dunk by any means. But because he is a Baffert horse, he gets all the love.

Didn't D'Oro come out of the Santa Anita Derby nicked up ....maybe the reason for the workout?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I've talked about Good Magic, and you call that kind of horse a long shot. He does not seem like a typical long shot to me---the 2 year old winner and horse with the highest earnings of any 3 year old. 10-1 odds would seem very generous for this horse. People favor Justify, because of his performance in one race with only a seven horse field. This field is much larger and the pace will be fast. A lot of things can happen during the course of a race. Some people might prefer Good Magic's class and consistency. To me, the horse deserves to be a favorite. When Chad Brown says Good Magic is his best horse, I think you have to pay attention.

.

It’s the distance for me. I don’t think he has the distance.

His pedigree says he does though. He's one of only two with Raise A Native on top and Buckpasser in the right spot.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Finished 3rd in the FOY. And I’ve read that he doesn’t have the pedigree.

Seeing the PPs for the first time this evening, it tells a different picture than I thought. If that San Anita figure is true for Justify, then he would be the horse to beat. The only other horses in his realm are Audible and Bolt D'Oro. Hofsburg is interesting, if you think he can improve on his last performance, because his trajectory is in the right direction. I feel less confident now in Good Magic, who is still a good horse, and My Boy Jack. Both appear to have peaked.

It's hard to tell how good Mendelsohn is. He has beaten a number of horses who are in this race already, and he took to the dirt in Dubai like a fish to water. His stride was impressive in that race. Walt could very well be right on this one. That's my honest assessment.

It depends on what figs you like. The consensus seems to be that Justify and Bolt are the fastest U.S. horses. Mendelssohn is an unknown.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Walt might be right

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

As my Brother Spmack will tell you Brown is not the trainer on dirt as he is on grass

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

justify drew a good post; so did an intriguing one...audible.

Irish Boy makes an appearance:

https://stevendonohue.files.wordpress.c ... review.pdf

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I will be in Louisville as this occurs. Is it cool?

some more stuff to mess with your mind:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/05/02/dont-pick-any-of-the-favorites-to-win-the-kentucky-derby/?noredirect=on

Mendelssohn is an unknown insofar as there is no Brisnet speed figure for the UAE Derby, because it's a foreign race. That makes handicapping this race with any model tricky. However, there is a Beyer figure for Mendelssohn in that race, which came out as 106. That turns out to be one less than Justify's 107 Beyer in the San Anita Derby. If you use 113 as a proxy Brisnet figure for his UAE Derby performance, I get winning percentages that match the future odds on the horses at around 4-1. Justify is a slight favorite at 22% versus Mendelssohn at 18.5%. Next is Audible at 11.7% and Bolt D'Oro at 8.5%. You can see all the results on my page.

Qualitatively, I'm in the Walt camp, thinking Mendelssohn has the slight edge for better turn of foot and relishing the dirt. He's also nearly gone the 1 1/4 mi. distance.

Irish Boy : After almost two decades, the best finish in the Kentucky Derby by a horse coming out of the UAE Derby remains China Visit’s sixth-place effort in 2000.
W_Z post:Unfortunately, horses exiting the UAE Derby are 0 for 13 in the Run for the Roses with Master of Hounds’s fifth-place finish in 2011 the high-water mark

I'll stick to WWN handicapping method

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

i'm not handicapping this race. there are at least 3 or 4 horses that make a strong case. for me it'll depend on odds around post time.

no idea bout the oaks either.

Based off names I could see spun into bad headline puns, Im liking Enticed and Bolt D'Oro

yes.

i know nothing about horses but it's fun.
an infield ticket will cost you like $50 bucks and you roam the grounds where there are a bunch of tents for music, beer, food, juleps.
the locals/die-hards will have the rails staked out with their chairs and such as they get there ASAP. even so you can see the horses/races no problem.

definitely a bucket list item to check off.