How the fuck is anyone going to beat Justify?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

_________________

I think Mendelssohn can if the track is fast and he doesn't get bounced at the gate (I'm assuming he's actually in the race...I haven't looked).

_________________

I don't think so. I'm pretty sure he's back at Ballydoyle. Planning to return later this summer to point for the BC Classic.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

As Sean Connery said in the Name of the Rose, "With difficulty."

They can barely find 5 tomato cans to try to beat Justify in the Preakness. But I'm sure Rube will choose one of em them because he read a seldom used stat.

_________________

Good Magic ran his eyeballs out and is potentially going to the Preakness - I don't think he can win.

Quip? Probably not.

Have to wait for the Belmont and getting fresh horses back out there.

I agree about Good Magic. He had an absolutely perfect set up. If he was ever going to beat him that was the spot. I could see Quip making the back of the exacta.

Justify was lame in his left hind on Sunday. Baffert seems to be shrugging it off. If he goes in the race I'm sure he'll be fine.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Baffert at least reported it - vets yesterday said No Big Deal. Who's right? Who knows. While a TC would help a bit in the breeding shed, this win cemented their stud fees and he could retire tomorrow and the owners would be happy.

Mick Ruis is saying he may run give Bolt D'Oro another shot at Justify.

_________________

Good luck with that.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Agreed with that one. That horse is several steps slower than Justify.

Watching the race again, the deep closers should be lining up for the Belmont. Hofburg, My Boy Jack and Vino Rosso all ran 'good' races but were hampered by traffic trouble and the track conditions.

Bolt D'Oro is a real top horse. He's never failed to give an all out effort. I have nothing but respect for the horse. He deserves a break right now. If I were managing him I'd definitely turn him out and point for a late summer/fall campaign culminating in the BC Classic. And when I brought him back it would be in a spot where I was sure he would get the win, maybe one of the regional derbies or something. He hasn't finished in front for a long time. I'd want to give him some confidence.

Here's what Thomas Herding Technique wrote about him in their Derby profile:

"It didn’t take long to see that Bolt was up against something like he has never seen before at Santa Anita. As he was tracking Justify, hunting him, Bolt was actually burning more emotional energy than Justify, the IHD-speed horse. Bolt was working very hard, extremely focused, to remain in competitive position and launch an attack. Meanwhile, Justify was using casual Group Herd Dynamic oblique feel to keep tabs on his pursuer. Bolt tried to take Justify down twice – once on the far turn, and then again when maneuvering to his inside through the lane. His effort was super intense and impressive, as it always is. But he simply wasn’t good enough to crack Justify. He gave everything he had, and Justify was still pulling away at the end. The Santa Anita Derby was the third consecutive race in which Bolt failed to cross the finish line first, and we wonder when these efforts are going to catch up to him. When you try as hard as this horse does, losing can be tough."

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

That's over-dramatizing. Bolt d'Oro had nothing left at quarter pole. To his credit, Espinoza put himself in a position to win, but didn't have the horse that day.

Bravazo would have been closer at the end, had he not lost a ton of ground having to go five wide on the far turn. He really ran an impressive race, and I commend Lukas for trying him again in the Preakness. The horse has a legit chance and would be cheap at 25-1, even if you took him place/show.

Good Magic also has a good shot. He's a fighter.

What about Magnum Moon? Haven't read any news that he could enter. He should, having had the fastest last 3f time of all the Derby contenders for 1 1/16 mi. and 1 1/8 mi. races.

If both horses have clean trips going a mile and an eighth or a mile and a quarter and they ran the race 100 times, Bolt D'Oro would finish in front of Bravazo about 80 of them.

As for Magnum Moon, Pletcher isn't going to run any of his horses back in two weeks. He just doesn't do it. He's even been reluctant to do it with his Derby winners and only has because he pretty much had to.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Well, if the weather cooperates, you will get your wish to see Bolt d'Oro go against Bravazo head to head again, because they're indicating Bolt will run. The difference between the two is that Bolt has already peaked, whereas Bravazo has not yet hit his ceiling.

If there's a race where Justify is vulnerable, it's this one after his bruised heel injury in the Derby.

Dumb, but serious question. How long does it take a horse to 'recover' from a race? Does it take longer for a Derby horse to recover than it does from one that ran at Arlington last weekend?

_________________

It's not that it takes a Derby horse longer to recover than the 5 claimer that races at Arlington, it's that the Derby horse is so much more valuable. In today's racing I think 28 days is considered a standard spacing between races for a stakes caliber horse. Cheaper horses may go every two weeks. Sometimes more often than that, especially because many tracks have a shortage of horses. The Triple Crown is so demanding, three long races in six weeks plus the preps leading up to the series.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

$10 Tri Justify/Good Magic/Quip

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Nice job by the female anthem singer at Arlington tonight.

Bold Rally takes it in the 4th! Bold rally indeed it was.

Fort Dixie (30-1) to show in the 7th. Placed.

I think also the way a horse ran in the race Affirmed/Alydar type race takes more out a horse than say a 10 length victory.....also one of my all time favorite Sportsman ponies Crosstown Traffic anybody find PP on that sonofabitch will really see something!

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Blended Citizen wins the Peter Pan! That's my horse in the Belmont.

Justify hasn't looked so sporty galloping. I'm sure he will be feeling no pain on Saturday, but I'm upgrading Good Magic's chances in this one. I think Brown may smell blood in the water.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploa ... ness18.pdf

Unless Justify is injured or gimpy, this looks like a walk over for him.

Appreciate the insight.

_________________

No one matches up to Justify in this race. Good Magic is closest, but his chance is only about 20%. Lone Sailor rates as good as Quip. Fair value for both is about 19-1.

Bravazo will have to run a giant race to be in any kind of contention. Would be a miracle if he's another Ox-Bow. That said, I still like him for what he did in the Derby.

To be honest, the field going against Justify is pretty weak. Disappointing for a classic that they could not get better horses to enter. They're making it too easy for Baffert.

The only horse standing in the way of Justify getting the Triple Crown is Blended Citizen in the Belmont.

Making the case for Bravazo:

https://www.americasbestracing.net/gamb ... onsidering

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... _Derby_123

Gonna go to the otb with my friend in a couple hours to place our bets and I'm still not sure what I"m going to do.

Now there's one more horse standing in Justify's way in the Belmont. I had the place.

https://www.nysun.com/editorials/beware ... azo/90269/

Both Hofburg and Vino Rosso will be on top edge for the race. By no means do I believe this is a two horse race.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don