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 Post subject: what about tonight?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:58 pm 
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Big races at Prairie Meadows again....I need McCraken to win and pay $160 to make money on my ROI :lol:

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: what about tonight?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:11 pm 
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You’ll have to put a lot on him to make that that back. Currently stands at 7-2 and probably goes down to 3-1.

Dalmore or Hence might be dangerous, and bigger prices.


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 Post subject: Re: what about tonight?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:18 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Big races at Prairie Meadows again....I need McCraken to win and pay $160 to make money on my ROI :lol:


Again, you scoff at something you don't understand.

The expected ROI compares the theoretical odds to the market or live odds. If that relationship is negative, the horse is a bad bet, because if you ran the race X number of times, you would lose money, even if you won the one time. If the relationship is positive, then the horse has value and represents a good bet, generally speaking. The good bets have to be considered within the context of the field and other variables. Maybe the horse has a positive expected ROI as a 5th or 6th choice. That doesn't make it necessarily a good bet, if the horse is going against tough competition. It's all relative.

If you are betting the live odds favorite all the time, then there's a good chance you are making bad bets, because these are the horses that typically are overbet. You don't often see the live odds favorite as overlays. Most of the time they are underlays. In some races, you may have only one or two horses that are true overlays. This is the dirty little secret about horse racing, in that the odds setups of horses are against the better and in favor of the house to win. That's why I say you need to wait for the right setups of odds. If the odds are not there, the race is a fold. All these things can be demonstrated mathematically.


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 Post subject: Re: what about tonight?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:39 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Big races at Prairie Meadows again....I need McCraken to win and pay $160 to make money on my ROI :lol:


Again, you scoff at something you don't understand.

The expected ROI compares the theoretical odds to the market or live odds. If that relationship is negative, the horse is a bad bet, because if you ran the race X number of times, you would lose money, even if you won the one time. If the relationship is positive, then the horse has value and represents a good bet, generally speaking. The good bets have to be considered within the context of the field and other variables. Maybe the horse has a positive expected ROI as a 5th or 6th choice. That doesn't make it necessarily a good bet, if the horse is going against tough competition. It's all relative.

If you are betting the live odds favorite all the time, then there's a good chance you are making bad bets, because these are the horses that typically are overbet. You don't often see the live odds favorite as overlays. Most of the time they are underlays. In some races, you may have only one or two horses that are true overlays. This is the dirty little secret about horse racing, in that the odds setups of horses are against the better and in favor of the house to win. That's why I say you need to wait for the right setups of odds. If the odds are not there, the race is a fold. All these things can be demonstrated mathematically.

Thank God you didn't talk at all about the horse.....goofball

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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 Post subject: Re: what about tonight?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:08 pm 
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You shoot your mouth off too much, Walt.

There is a word for someone like you: ignoramus. I would also add, "tool."


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 Post subject: Re: what about tonight?
PostPosted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:43 pm 
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Dignified Rube wrote:
You shoot your mouth off too much, Walt.

There is a word for someone like you: ignoramus. I would also add, "tool."

well this ignoramus looks at form .class .track ,jockey...oh I am ignoramus

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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