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PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 11:50 am 
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Bet the Suns to lose their first round series. If they happen to win, double your bet against them in the second round. And so on, and so forth. The only way this fails is if they win the championship, and I don't see it.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 1:48 pm 
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doubling your bet after a loss is called martingale. You can do this in any series of bets really. I see many people do this on the craps table. But before you take on this strategy broadly in sports betting, go through the various martingale calculations available on various websites.

The problem with this bet is that you will have + odds on Phoenix' opponent for the first series, but likely - odds on the opponent on every other series. Let's say the first series, you bet 100 to win 150.. and you lose 100. Under a pure martingale, you would invest 200 to win 200 the next series. But if the line is -150 on the opponent in the next series, you actually will have to invest -300 to win 200 in the 2nd series. If Phoenix loses, then you win 200 for a net 100 profit from the strategy. That's great. But if Phoenix wins that 2nd series, you might have similar odds in the next series. Then you would be down 400 and would have to bet $750 to win $500. But really you would be betting 750 to net 100 after recouping the 400 in previous losses. If that loses, then you're down 1150 and you will have to bet $2k or so on the next series just to win $1250, which would be a net $100 after recouping your 1150 in losses. It gets dicey. That's the problem with martingaling on moneyline favorites. If they lose, you're talking about a very low ROI and a lot of chasing.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 5:54 pm 
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I got them at (-610) to not win the Western Conference.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 7:15 am 
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That was easier than I thought.

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PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2008 11:01 am 
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nice job Chus.


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PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2008 11:06 am 
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Thanks, Coast.

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