http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/triplecrown08/news/story?id=3375757

Big Brown gets 20. They had the choice of 1, 2, 18, 19, or 20 and they chose 20. I think they're building in an excuse to lose. We'll see.

Colonel John got 10.

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Fire Phil Emery

You take 20 because you can avoid all traffic into the first turn. You stay away from 1 or 2 because of the sea of horses that would swallow you up if you take a bad step out of the gate. He's going to have to go hard to avoid being 6-8 wide on the first turn. That's usually how horses get killed from the outside.

By the way, I love Visionaire's post.

Post Position—Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Morning-Line Odds

1 Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux, Nick Zito, 20-1

2 Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa, Barclay Tagg, 15-1

3 Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano, Nick Zito, 30-1

4 Court Vision, Garrett Gomez, Bill Mott, 20-1

5 Eight Belles (f), Gabriel Saez, Larry Jones, 15-1

6 Z Fortune, Robby Albarado, Steve Asmussen, 30-1

7 Big Truck, Javier Catellano, Barclay Tagg, 50-1

8 Visionaire, Jose Lezcano, Michael Matz, 20-1

9 Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan, Steve Asmussen, 6-1

10 Colonel John, Corey Nakatani, Eoin Harty, 4-1

11 Z Humor, Rene Douglas, Bill Mott, 30-1

12 Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz, Bennie Stutts Jr., 20-1

13 Bob Jack Black, Rich Migliore, James Kasparoff, 20-1

14 Monba, Ramon Dominguez, Todd Pletcher, 15-1

15 Adriano, Edgar Prado, Graham Motion, 30-1

16 Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel, David Carroll, 20-1

17 Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 20-1

18 Recapturetheglory, E.T. Baird, Louie Roussel, 20-1

19 Gayego, Mike Smith, Paulo Lobo, 15-1

20 Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux, Rick Dutrow Jr., 3-1

I know why you avoid 1 or 2 (although I'd have taken 2). I don't get why you'd rather have 20 than 18 though. He's going to have to cover an extra length just to avoid getting hung wide, and he'll have to do it quickly. He's going to use up a lot of energy, and best case scenario he's still probably 3 or 4 wide on the first turn.

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Fire Phil Emery

From 18, all it takes is the 17 to come out or the 19 to come in to kill your chances. From 20, you can ensure to clean a break. That's really the only plus of the 20.

I may just play Visionaire to win. If he's anything close to 20-1 I may just blow my Derby allotment on that. I liked recapturetheglory at the right price, but not from that post. Colonel John is going to be bet down way too low.

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Fire Phil Emery

Visionaire will get some money - I'd expect him in the 10-15/1 range on Saturday after a decent run in the Bluegrass. Pyro might be a good value play above 8-1.

http://equibase.com/rotw/fullpp.pdf

It's funny how everyone has forgotten about Pyro, myself included.

Anyone could win and I wouldn't be surprised. I should probably just keep my money in my pocket. But I won't.

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Fire Phil Emery

Here's a chat with Andy Beyer. He has a horrendous track record with the Derby, but he's forgotten more about handicapping than I'll ever know.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/chats/beyer.html

He's tossing out Colonel John (poly specialist, too slow) and Big Brown (not enough experience), as well as Monba (mediocre), Denis of Cork (takes a shot at the Thorograph guys), Court Vision (should have closed better in the Wood), Smooth Air (sick), Cool Coal Man (had perfect shot in the Fountain of Youth and couldn't win) and, I'm assuming by extrapolation from other horses, Cowboy Cal, Nakal, and Big Truck. He's skeptical of Recapturetheglory (they think the track was juiced up, which could be true) and confuzzled by Pyro (who isn't.)

I still like Visionaire. I won't play him under 10-1, but I do like him. Contra Beyer, I like Colonel John too but I think he'll be the favorite come post time.

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Fire Phil Emery

Here's another chat, this one with Dan Illich. He disagrees with Beyer on everything, still likes BB even with the 20 post, hates Visionaire, and likes Recapturetheglory, so, really, who the hell knows.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/chats/illman.html

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Fire Phil Emery

I haven't forgotten about Pyro. A buddy of mine told me to buy a piece of him on the futures market several weeks ago at 30-1. And as far as "anyone can win" that always seems to be the case with the Derby. I know history has little meaning, there always is so much uncertainty about so many in the field. For me, it's generally a race not to bet the favorites.

The boys on the board did very well last year, with action on Street Sense. Vince had him WP, Chus had him WPS, retard hit the exacta. I look forward to your plays.

My approach is going to be to spread the field. I don't think I can hit the winner cold, and I don't have the bankroll I want to play a bunch to win and make it worthwhile. I'll stick to the exactas.

I'm going to eliminate horses one by one until I'm left with 6. A 6-horse exacta box will cost me $60. The top two horses in that order will probably recoup most or all of the cost of the best. Of course, what I'm hoping for is the sleepers in the group coming through and getting a $500 or so payout.

Here are my first knockouts:

Cool Coal Man: nothing on the poly at Keeneland in the Bluegrass, and while I'm willing to excuse that for Pyro, I'm not for any of the other really awful looking horses. Post one doesn't help.

Anak Nakal: The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct was the most uninspiring prep I watched this season. I'm knocking out both horses that couldn't make up ground at the end even with the gruelingly slow pace at the end. That also includes...

Court Vision: If he couldn't close in the Wood, I don't see how he'll have a better trip in the Derby. When everything goes right and you can't finish in the money, you're not a serious contender.

Big Truck: Same rationale as Cool Coal Man, plus the win in Tampa probably didn't mean all that much. Speed figures are awfully low.

That leaves me with 16. I have ten to eliminate in three days. The danger is wanting to eliminate just for the sake of eliminating. I want to make sure I proceed slowly. But if any of these four finish in the top two, I'll eat my (figurative) hat.

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Fire Phil Emery

I'm planning on heading to an OTB on Saturday off the advice I get from the board. Don't let me down!

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Here's the full Churchill card for Saturday

http://www3.sympatico.ca/lino.c/Churchill%20Downs.pdf

It's looking increasingly unlikely that anyone playing with an ADW is going to be able to bet the entire card.

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Fire Phil Emery

Yes, I know. I've been watching all of the lawsuits from the horseman coming up. Did you see the little boycott pulled at Hawthorne last week? Talk about shooting themselves in the foot.

Just at first glance, I dislike these horses:

Cowboy Cal - Poly/Turf Horse
ZHumor - horse peaked at Delta Downs
Big Truck - huge form reversal, beat no one
Eight Belles - I dont think she's much. She's no rags to riches.
Anak Nakal - has some excuses, but dont think he's fast enough
Cool Coal Man - post will kill him because he's more tactical speed than gate to wire speed

A guy over on the paceadvantage message board has been posting these for the Keeneland meet with quite a bit of success. Just a little bit more data to chew on, and some interesting observations about how moisture might play a factor with some of the horses.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=3413

I'm tossing Cowboy Cal for the reasons you indicated, plus I just don't think he's all that good, so that leaves me with 15 horses.

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Fire Phil Emery

Dr. Ken's Dream (another great horse) says take Eight Belles - especially if the horse is wearing a blue/white or green/white number 5.

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You know me like that.

Have you ever looked at Dosage Index (DI)? For many years horses did not win if the DI was above a certain number. Unfortunately the trend has gone higher for many reasons, but it is at least something to think about.
There are many pages to it with tons of info to really screw with your mind. If you're a stats "guy" - this may help.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/clas ... dosage.htm

I just cant go with ET Baird being a Derby winning Jockey. Recapturetheglory will not get my $$.
I do like a "Vision" box - Visionaire and Court Vision just as a hunch. They never come in, but if they do, I don't want to say "Doh".

I agree about ET Baird Andy. Dosage has been around a long time but hasnt been all that talked about this year. Neat site - will need to look some more.

Eliminating Smooth Air after sickness and report of very poor workouts. Wasn't big on him anyway- I think Tomcito would have passed him if the Florida Derby was another 1/8 of a mile- so I'm not too worried about this one.

Eight Belles is wearing the green #5.

Adriano puzzles the hell out of me. Any clues, Vince? The speed figures indicate that he's just not all that fast, but he could still be improving, and the Lane's End win was nice. Still, none of those horses have done anything subsequently. Prado did choose to ride him.

I don't think I think much of Monba, but I can't pull the trigger yet. I'm also torn about the entire Illinois Derby. I hate Z Humor, and yet I like Denis of Cork. That's a bit of cognitive dissonance. I haven't tossed Z Humor yet though.

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Fire Phil Emery

Adriano - not fast enough and he's probably better suited to turf/poly. He has some excuse on his dirt race but the dirt works dont blow me away either. I'll toss him.

Z Humor - Couldn't close on the leaders in a relative quick pace in the Fountain of Youth with little race trouble. He peaked when he was 2 winning the delta downs race. Toss.

As for Monba, he looks to be perhaps a better Poly horse, but he does have a win at 2 over the Churchill Downs surface. The breeding suggests he'll be fine on dirt with Maria's Mon who was a nice closer handicap horse and Easy Goer on the mom's side. He can get a distance. You can't toss just yet.

Denis of Cork - he's better than the Illinois Derby. His works show that. That race screams how green he was coming in. He's working very professionally and had three nice wins to start the career. The 96 Beyer in the Southwest puts him in this race and with a bounce off the last start - he figures.

Tossing Adriano. This was my first difficult toss. Here's the thought process:

Not much speed outside of the Lanes End. If he ran that speed in the Derby he might be OK, but he'd probably have to improve quite a bit. Some concerns, however: first, I have a feeling they bumped the speed scores for the Lanes End a tad to account for the polytrack and the rating which takes place thereon. Second, it is a polytrack race, and the connections certainly seem to think he's better on grass or rubber. Third, he beat no one of consequence in the Lanes End. Plus, he got a perfect trip, certainly better than what he can expect to get here. I don't see any excuses for the Fountain of Youth; sure, he had the outside post, but he had plenty of time to get rated and position himself on the first turn and was only four wide, which isn't unreasonable. He showed nothing. Plus the workouts seem to indicate he doesn't like the dirt.

I don't feel 100% good about that one, but I don't think I will about any of them from here on out. I'm close to tossing one of the single digit money lines. This is my most important final this week.

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Fire Phil Emery

My head scratcher is Gayego. This horse has everything you'd want from a Derby contender except the post.

I just watched the Arkansas Derby for the first time. Two thoughts:

1.) The announcer for Oaklawn is horrible.
2.) That was more impressive a race than the results charts would indicate. There's going to be a wall of speed horses banging in from the outside.

While I'm on the subject, the announcer for Gulfstream (I think) is bad too. He has this whiny, nasally voice, and everything he says sounds like a question.

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Fire Phil Emery

Uncutting Court Vision. I told myself I wouldn't do that, but he really got hung wide in the Wood. I may end up recutting him, but I was hasty. There's no reward in sticking to a bad opinion.

Cutting Z Humor. Creating par times for the Illinois Derby is a problem because a.) Hawthorne runs practically no races at 1 1/8 miles except for that one, and b.) the times all day for Hawthorne were ridiculous. Almost every other race was off the charts compared to the rest of the met when looking at same distance and class. $5,000 claimers were running a second faster than they should have. I know that speed ratings take that into account, but what I'm wondering is what kind of effect that had upon running styles.

I'm keeping recapturetheglory- for now- because he at least won the race. I'm keeping D of C because he's works have shown me something and I think there's something there. Z Humor is the weakest link. Bye Bye.

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Fire Phil Emery

Cutting Monba. I said earlier I'd cut all the Keenelanders and I have with one big, glaring exception, being Pyro. He was not visually impressive in the Bluegrass, as he struggled to pick of a speed horse at the end of a race without particularly quick fractions. The Bluegrass didn't really play to poly form- it wasn't a turf race on rubber- but I don't trust this horse off the polytrack.

Down to 12:

Tale of Ekati
Court Vision
Eight Belles
Z Fortune
Visionaire
Pyro
Colonel John
Bob Black Jack
Dennis of Cork
Recapturetheglory
Gayego
Big Brown

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Fire Phil Emery

Cutting Bob Black Jack. The SA Derby played like a poly race should, with all the closers bidding their time. El Gato Malo actually had a visually impressive move on the outside of the backstretch, but he had broken awkwardly and shot his load there. BBJ sat near the front at a good, but not great, pace and actually showed an OK move with a furlong to go, but I'm not convinced that he could do that on dirt, and all indications are that he really hates the surface. Watching the SA Derby a few times has soured me a little bit on Colonel John as well. I think I hate all the horses.

Couple of notes:

Shoutout to youtube. It's nice to type 2008 ___________ into google and have the youtube of the recording come up in the first ten selections. It makes handicapping 10 times easier and les expensive than using equibase.

Also, if I were a wealthy man, I'd hire Trevor Denman to narrate my day. "Now Irish Boy is getting out of bed, he looks a little groggy but I think he's going to make himself some tea, no milk, opening the refrigerator door..."

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Fire Phil Emery