blackhawksfan wrote:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19258773/mitchell-trubisky-lack-experience-make-one-great-draft-mysteries-recent-years
Con: There's almost no precedent of a player this inexperienced turning into a franchise quarterback.
We know those questions are fair because virtually every future Pro Bowl quarterback wins his college job early in his career and starts for a few years before leaving for the NFL. Most first-round quarterbacks start 30-plus games, and even the ones who leave after a couple of seasons start 20-plus contests before hitting the pros.
(Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky started 13 games at North Carolina before leaving school. Throw in the 125 passes he threw as Williams' backup and he makes it to 572 pass attempts after high school. It's not even as if we have junior college tape to work from, as was the case with Aaron Rodgers, who only started 22 games at Cal before turning into a Hall of Famer. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is as close to a one-and-done quarterback as you will find.
The closest comparison for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky in that regard is Mark Sanchez, who wasn't able to beat out John David Booty as a sophomore in 2007 before taking over in 2008 and going 12-1 with impressive numbers. The Jets traded up to grab him with the fifth overall pick and ended up finding that Sanchez was a backup-caliber signal-caller. The other quarterbacks in recent years who haven't made it to 20 starts aren't really great comparisons for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky, as Ryan Tannehill (19 starts) was a converted wide receiver, while Michael Vick (also 19 starts) was something entirely different as a quarterback. Akili Smith (also 19 starts) burned bright during his season as the primary starter at Oregon but quickly flamed out as a pro. There's one other passer I'll get to shortly.
There are all kinds of problems with judging quarterbacks after a limited number of pass attempts. You don't get much insight into their ability to avoid injuries. You don't get to see how opposing defenses adjust to them over the course of an offseason or how they improve on the weaker elements of their game from the previous year. In every aspect of how they perform and how they account for opposing defenses, you're stuck looking at tape over a dangerously small sample.
Think about professional quarterbacks such as Nick Foles and Josh McCown, two guys who were incredible in 2013. They combined to throw 40 touchdowns against three picks over a 541-pass sample. Over the remainder of their professional careers, Foles and McCown have thrown 95 touchdowns against 92 interceptions and performed like replaceable backup passers. If Foles and McCown were college quarterbacks in 2013 and left after their one breakout season of tape, they would have been top-three picks. We've seen quarterbacks such as Brian Brohm and Matt Leinart fall out of the top three by sticking in school and revealing themselves to be less effective passers on tape. With (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky, what we've seen is good, but we haven't seen much.
I wanted Watson drafted but I like what I see in Mitch. I do see comparisons with Steve Young in the way he moves around. Maybe Mitch doesn't have great arm strength for the deep ball but that shouldn't hurt him much in Nagy's offense. Look at the success they had with Smith in KC. Again, my concern is the offensive line. I like that Long is back and the interior of the line is a good one. The tackles, however, are shit and Nagy is going to have to scheme the shit to cover up for them.
I was happy with what I saw over-all from the play of the offense. Howard is a beast and I like Cohen a lot despite his bad game. The other running backs look to be serviceable also. Big improvement shown by the receivers and TEs from last year. All in all, it looks like an improved team from that shit show of the last couple of seasons.
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