They say debt to GDP ratio is unsustainable. So how long do we have?

The fundamentals of the economy are strong right now. So long as we avoid a trade war (indications are we will avoid one and may actually see tariffs go down as a deal is likely late this year) we will push back the next crisis.

I'd say we will have a recession some point in the next 3-5 years, but I don't think the scale of the recession will be anything like the 2008 crisis and will be more cyclical in nature. Think more akin to the early 2000s tech bubble recession

Even retail is strong, and you can't call it "defensive spending" growth for Walmart when Macy's is reporting strong earnings at the same time. Heck, this past quarter was one of the best for earnings across the board. It was the rare quarter where estimates were raised midway through the quarter and companies then routinely beat those raised estimates.

Now if the trade talks scheduled for later this year blow up, this all goes out the window.

It is also worth noting that the stock run-up we have seen this most recent quarter has occurred without FANG carrying the weight. In fact, it occurred with 2 of the FANG stocks entering correction territory

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

So you don't see all the chickens from this "Quantitative easing" coming home to roost?

Not in the near term at least. The debt is unsustainable, but I think we won't see that blow up on us for at least a decade, but yeah it will be a problem when it does.

Anyone who denies our debt is a long term problem is lying to themselves. I see neither party committed to curtailing spending.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

The use of this phrase in popular lexicon seems to be a harbinger of doom.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Never coming for me. All my money is in gold and beanie babies.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

In this case, the data supports the optimism in the economy. Consumer confidence is strong, consumer spending is strong, unemployment is low, wages are going up, corporate profits are high, new home builds are increasing, etc.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Silly, Brick! Ginseng is where it's at!

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I have a lot of my money tied up in valuable sets of baseball, football, and basketball cards.

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Flew too close to the sun on wings of pastrami

The day of reckoning for our long term liabilities is really going to manifest itself first at the local level, mainly cities and school districts. The pension funding problem will fall on them first. The Federal Government is "blessed" with having the world's reserve currency, and it can never really default. It would just print money as needed to pay its bills. Unfortunately, you will see our taxes going increasingly towards Medicare, Social Security, and Interest payments as we move along with the mid-30's being the timing of real problems with entitlements at the Federal level. That problem will be fixed with higher payroll taxes. Benefit cuts just can't happen politically.

Equities are overvalued, but the highly valued companies produce real earnings and cash flow as opposed to what we saw in the 2000 dot com bubble. As interest rates rise, eventually money will start to flow back to fixed income in a meaningful way as to reduce investments in equities. I don't see a mega financial crisis. Banks are very well capitalized. There are mini bubbles in things like auto lending and student loans, but the latter is mostly Federally guaranteed. It is more likely that the inverted yield curve will cause a mild, normal recession probably around the time of the next presidential election. Republicans have a habit of leaving problems for the next guy (girl in 2020 Kamala).

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Hawaii (fuck) You

The stock market will come back to earth in the next year but stock market =/= economy.

So long as US companies continue to report strong earnings, money will continue to be invested in the market. I don't think you'll see 20% gains like you did last year, but even this year with the threat of tariffs weighing down the markets, we are up 8%. As soon as the tariff threat cools down, which is likely in Q4, you will see a jump in the markets.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

In the next year

We'll see.

Next year will probably continue to be buoyed by continued corporate profits and an easing of tariffs. Now after that rise, it will probably level off and be relatively flat.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

I'm not disputing you. Several of you are far more educated and experienced in these matters than am I. However, it seems to me when I hear the average guy on the street trying to sedate himself with this phrase, we have us some trouble.

I remember back in the late 00s whenever I would ask what someone meant by the fundamentals of the economy, I could never get a consistent response...just that they were strong.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

The economics version of Steinbrenner saying Billy Martin's job is safe.

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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

I've cornered the market in Pakistani cricket equipment. All I have to do is sit back and wait for Julie's order. Should be coming any day now.

Stamp collections. That's where it's at. Of course you can diversify by investment in ornamental bird plates. Still a good call.

Who knows in the short term, but we are screwed in the long run as a country. Neither political party will ever cut entitlements.... until interest rates explode and create a crisis. Who's gonna replace the dollar though? China is nothing without the us consumer, so whooooooooooooooooooo?

S&P 500 is sitting 2 points off of its all-time high right now.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

It's odd, I've been hearing the word bubble with increasing intensity from forecasters over the last month. And I tend to agree, since this "recovery" feels illusory for all but the top 1% to me. This really does feel a lot like the time when the .com bubble burst. But fortunately it wasn't a catastrophe.

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There are only two examples of infinity: The universe and human stupidity and I'm not sure about the universe.