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PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:35 pm 
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JORR, maybe I'm tired, but despite the fact that I've tended to side with you on this one, you've kinda lost me in the weeds in this thread.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:57 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
JORR, maybe I'm tired, but despite the fact that I've tended to side with you on this one, you've kinda lost me in the weeds in this thread.



How so? I'm not saying the guy isn't having a good year and that he may have caught some unlucky breaks that affected his record (I haven't looked at his game logs), but I'd have a hard time saying a guy should win the Cy Young when so many guys pitched as well or better than he did in the games he actually pitched. Each game is a separate competition. We don't keep score on the aggregate. It's not like Felix winning at 14-13 with an historically bad offense that averaged two full runs less per game than a bunch of teams. The Mets are just a little below an average offense.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:17 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
JORR, maybe I'm tired, but despite the fact that I've tended to side with you on this one, you've kinda lost me in the weeds in this thread.



How so? I'm not saying the guy isn't having a good year and that he may have caught some unlucky breaks that affected his record (I haven't looked at his game logs), but I'd have a hard time saying a guy should win the Cy Young when so many guys pitched as well or better than he did in the games he actually pitched. Each game is a separate competition. We don't keep score on the aggregate. It's not like Felix winning at 14-13 with an historically bad offense that averaged two full runs less per game than a bunch of teams. The Mets are just a little below an average offense.


Not sure what you are talking about. That was a really good Mariner offense, they just faced Cy Young caliber pitching every night.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:23 pm 
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One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
JORR, maybe I'm tired, but despite the fact that I've tended to side with you on this one, you've kinda lost me in the weeds in this thread.



How so? I'm not saying the guy isn't having a good year and that he may have caught some unlucky breaks that affected his record (I haven't looked at his game logs), but I'd have a hard time saying a guy should win the Cy Young when so many guys pitched as well or better than he did in the games he actually pitched. Each game is a separate competition. We don't keep score on the aggregate. It's not like Felix winning at 14-13 with an historically bad offense that averaged two full runs less per game than a bunch of teams. The Mets are just a little below an average offense.


Not sure what you are talking about. That was a really good Mariner offense, they just faced Cy Young caliber pitching every night.



Except they didn't.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:17 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
JORR, maybe I'm tired, but despite the fact that I've tended to side with you on this one, you've kinda lost me in the weeds in this thread.



How so? I'm not saying the guy isn't having a good year and that he may have caught some unlucky breaks that affected his record (I haven't looked at his game logs), but I'd have a hard time saying a guy should win the Cy Young when so many guys pitched as well or better than he did in the games he actually pitched. Each game is a separate competition. We don't keep score on the aggregate. It's not like Felix winning at 14-13 with an historically bad offense that averaged two full runs less per game than a bunch of teams. The Mets are just a little below an average offense.


Not sure what you are talking about. That was a really good Mariner offense, they just faced Cy Young caliber pitching every night.





Except they didn't.

You give no credence to an offense riding negative momentum and playing tight? There's an elephant in the dugout every time deGrom pitches.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:16 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
The problem with using a W/L record to assess a pitcher is that a team's offense, relief pitching, and defense all impact a team's odds of winning yet the starting pitcher only impacts the innings they pitch. Did people even read the article? In his 6 loses the team scored 10 runs. In his 10 no-decisions he has allowed 10 earned runs. C'mon- this is not a tough one.



But I would argue that that's too many guys pitching as well or better than you did in the same games.


But not against the same quality team as evidenced by the run support stat I posted. Plus, those pitchers have not pitched as well the entire season. How do we know that? deGrom's stats are right at the top for every major category. deGrom's record is due to him playing on a poor team and being unlucky. Has Lester been a better pitcher than deGrom this season?


The reason he got less "run support" is because another guy pitched better than he did.


Just like I told you before, all offenses are not equal. Jon Lester is 14-5. He gets the most run support in the league and has an excellent defense and bullpen to back him up. This is no coincidence.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:16 am 
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Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
JORR, maybe I'm tired, but despite the fact that I've tended to side with you on this one, you've kinda lost me in the weeds in this thread.



How so? I'm not saying the guy isn't having a good year and that he may have caught some unlucky breaks that affected his record (I haven't looked at his game logs), but I'd have a hard time saying a guy should win the Cy Young when so many guys pitched as well or better than he did in the games he actually pitched. Each game is a separate competition. We don't keep score on the aggregate. It's not like Felix winning at 14-13 with an historically bad offense that averaged two full runs less per game than a bunch of teams. The Mets are just a little below an average offense.


Not sure what you are talking about. That was a really good Mariner offense, they just faced Cy Young caliber pitching every night.





Except they didn't.

You give no credence to an offense riding negative momentum and playing tight? There's an elephant in the dugout every time deGrom pitches.


Is that the argument? That an otherwise average offense magically becomes atrocious on the days Jake deGrom steps on the rubber?

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:24 am 
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DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
The problem with using a W/L record to assess a pitcher is that a team's offense, relief pitching, and defense all impact a team's odds of winning yet the starting pitcher only impacts the innings they pitch. Did people even read the article? In his 6 loses the team scored 10 runs. In his 10 no-decisions he has allowed 10 earned runs. C'mon- this is not a tough one.



But I would argue that that's too many guys pitching as well or better than you did in the same games.


But not against the same quality team as evidenced by the run support stat I posted. Plus, those pitchers have not pitched as well the entire season. How do we know that? deGrom's stats are right at the top for every major category. deGrom's record is due to him playing on a poor team and being unlucky. Has Lester been a better pitcher than deGrom this season?


The reason he got less "run support" is because another guy pitched better than he did.


Just like I told you before, all offenses are not equal. Jon Lester is 14-5. He gets the most run support in the league and has an excellent defense and bullpen to back him up. This is no coincidence.


That's a bad conclusion. Jon Lester is about .640 over almost 400 starts and it ain't because he magically gets great "run support" every time out.

But a lot of you do the same shit all the time. I look at the W/L records of mediocrities like Samardzija and Quintana and tell you who they are. You look at less important numbers and think now that they've left Team Terrible Offense they will suddenly post better records. But they never do. Why do you think that is?

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:29 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
JORR, maybe I'm tired, but despite the fact that I've tended to side with you on this one, you've kinda lost me in the weeds in this thread.



How so? I'm not saying the guy isn't having a good year and that he may have caught some unlucky breaks that affected his record (I haven't looked at his game logs), but I'd have a hard time saying a guy should win the Cy Young when so many guys pitched as well or better than he did in the games he actually pitched. Each game is a separate competition. We don't keep score on the aggregate. It's not like Felix winning at 14-13 with an historically bad offense that averaged two full runs less per game than a bunch of teams. The Mets are just a little below an average offense.


Not sure what you are talking about. That was a really good Mariner offense, they just faced Cy Young caliber pitching every night.

Except they didn't.

You give no credence to an offense riding negative momentum and playing tight? There's an elephant in the dugout every time deGrom pitches.


Is that the argument? That an otherwise average offense magically becomes atrocious on the days Jake deGrom steps on the rubber?


It's not magical. Some pitchers do get unlucky over the course of a season compared to the other starters on the staff. The offense doesn't perform as well, the bullpen falters, the defense commits uncharacteristic errors. While the starting pitcher is the most important factor in a team winning, we all know that it takes much more than a good performance by the starter to win a game. It's poor logic to judge a pitcher based on a team stat.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:31 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
The problem with using a W/L record to assess a pitcher is that a team's offense, relief pitching, and defense all impact a team's odds of winning yet the starting pitcher only impacts the innings they pitch. Did people even read the article? In his 6 loses the team scored 10 runs. In his 10 no-decisions he has allowed 10 earned runs. C'mon- this is not a tough one.



But I would argue that that's too many guys pitching as well or better than you did in the same games.


But not against the same quality team as evidenced by the run support stat I posted. Plus, those pitchers have not pitched as well the entire season. How do we know that? deGrom's stats are right at the top for every major category. deGrom's record is due to him playing on a poor team and being unlucky. Has Lester been a better pitcher than deGrom this season?


The reason he got less "run support" is because another guy pitched better than he did.


Just like I told you before, all offenses are not equal. Jon Lester is 14-5. He gets the most run support in the league and has an excellent defense and bullpen to back him up. This is no coincidence.


That's a bad conclusion. Jon Lester is about .640 over almost 400 starts and it ain't because he magically gets great "run support" every time out.



LOL You're right- It's not magical. He's a very good pitcher and he has pitched for the Red Sox and Cubs when they were World Series caliber teams.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:41 am 
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DAC wrote:

LOL You're right- It's not magical. It's called pitching for the Red Sox and Cubs when they were World Series caliber teams with high end offenses.


:lol: As if the pitching of guys like Lester has nothing to do with teams being "World Series caliber".

Both of his home parks have been friendly to hitters, particularly Fenway Park. Do you think that has anything at all to do with his teams scoring a lot of runs? And do you think those small parks with minimal foul territory are something he has to deal with as a pitcher?

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:45 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:

LOL You're right- It's not magical. It's called pitching for the Red Sox and Cubs when they were World Series caliber teams with high end offenses.


:lol: As if the pitching of guys like Lester has nothing to do with teams being "World Series caliber".

Both of his home parks have been friendly to hitters, particularly Fenway Park. Do you think that has anything at all to do with his teams scoring a lot of runs? And do you think those small parks with minimal foul territory are something he has to deal with as a pitcher?


And we all know it takes helluva lot more to be a playoff team than 1 starting pitcher.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:16 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Should we ignore all the guys he faces who pitch better than he does? The Mets average about half a run less per game than the best offense in the NL. Shouldn't a real Cy Young candidate be able to pitch over that when facing mostly ordinary pitchers?


I understand all the viewpoints on both sides but am struck that every time, almost to a man, that a great pitcher is interviewed on the subject he says it is his job to win the game

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:25 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
[No, Im proving the ridiculous part of your argument. The one you hide (all offenses are equal) because deep down, you know it's crazy.

You think a Win over a Trout-less Angels or Bonds-less Giants is equal to one with them. That is crazy.

You just trapped yourself. You believe all offenses are equal NO CONTEXT NEEDED, but when discussing run support you are a FIEND FOR CONTEXT


The entire NL is a Trout-less Angels

They should just give two Cys to the AL

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:36 am 
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When you acquire a guy like Darvish, do you do so with the intent of him winning a 5-4 game or outpitching an opponent in a 1-0 situation?

I just think on the elite level we have a right to judge harshly. They certainly judge themselves that way

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:27 am 
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DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:

LOL You're right- It's not magical. It's called pitching for the Red Sox and Cubs when they were World Series caliber teams with high end offenses.


:lol: As if the pitching of guys like Lester has nothing to do with teams being "World Series caliber".

Both of his home parks have been friendly to hitters, particularly Fenway Park. Do you think that has anything at all to do with his teams scoring a lot of runs? And do you think those small parks with minimal foul territory are something he has to deal with as a pitcher?


And we all know it takes helluva lot more to be a playoff team than 1 starting pitcher.



Here's Lester's "run support" on June 3, June 9, July 25, and August 16: 2, 2, 2, 1. Yet he somehow managed to go 4-0 in those games.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:06 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:

LOL You're right- It's not magical. It's called pitching for the Red Sox and Cubs when they were World Series caliber teams with high end offenses.


:lol: As if the pitching of guys like Lester has nothing to do with teams being "World Series caliber".

Both of his home parks have been friendly to hitters, particularly Fenway Park. Do you think that has anything at all to do with his teams scoring a lot of runs? And do you think those small parks with minimal foul territory are something he has to deal with as a pitcher?


And we all know it takes helluva lot more to be a playoff team than 1 starting pitcher.



Here's Lester's "run support" on June 3, June 9, July 25, and August 16: 2, 2, 2, 1. Yet he somehow managed to go 4-0 in those games.


Lester should feel fortunate that the bullpen and defense held the opposition to 0 runs in the 10 total innings after he left those games. It takes a team to win.

By the way, deGrom has had 8 games in which he received a loss or no decision after surrendered 1 or fewer runs. deGrom would have loved 2 runs in those games.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:12 pm 
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DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:

LOL You're right- It's not magical. It's called pitching for the Red Sox and Cubs when they were World Series caliber teams with high end offenses.


:lol: As if the pitching of guys like Lester has nothing to do with teams being "World Series caliber".

Both of his home parks have been friendly to hitters, particularly Fenway Park. Do you think that has anything at all to do with his teams scoring a lot of runs? And do you think those small parks with minimal foul territory are something he has to deal with as a pitcher?


And we all know it takes helluva lot more to be a playoff team than 1 starting pitcher.



Here's Lester's "run support" on June 3, June 9, July 25, and August 16: 2, 2, 2, 1. Yet he somehow managed to go 4-0 in those games.


Lester should feel fortunate that the bullpen and defense held the opposition to 0 runs in the 10 total innings after he left those games. It takes a team to win.

By the way, deGrom has had 8 games in which he received a loss or no decision after surrendered 1 or fewer runs. deGrom would have loved 2 runs in those games.


No, when he left those games, he couldn't possibly lose. You're using bullshit stats to arrive at bullshit conclusions, i.e. that Lester gets "great 'run support'", as if the Cubs score a machine-like 6 runs every time he takes the mound. When I point out the FACT that they often score two or less runs when he pitches, you have some other reason as to why Lester has an excellent record other than his own ability, like the "great Cubs bullpen" which you will simultaneously blame for Quintana's less than great record in the next conversation.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:15 pm 
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DAC wrote:
By the way, deGrom has had 8 games in which he received a loss or no decision after surrendered 1 or fewer runs. deGrom would have loved 2 runs in those games.


I'm sure he would have. Just like the guys he faced would have loved more than the 1 that deGrom allowed.

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:43 pm 
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:01 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
JORR, maybe I'm tired, but despite the fact that I've tended to side with you on this one, you've kinda lost me in the weeds in this thread.



How so? I'm not saying the guy isn't having a good year and that he may have caught some unlucky breaks that affected his record (I haven't looked at his game logs), but I'd have a hard time saying a guy should win the Cy Young when so many guys pitched as well or better than he did in the games he actually pitched. Each game is a separate competition. We don't keep score on the aggregate. It's not like Felix winning at 14-13 with an historically bad offense that averaged two full runs less per game than a bunch of teams. The Mets are just a little below an average offense.


Not sure what you are talking about. That was a really good Mariner offense, they just faced Cy Young caliber pitching every night.





Except they didn't.

You give no credence to an offense riding negative momentum and playing tight? There's an elephant in the dugout every time deGrom pitches.


Is that the argument? That an otherwise average offense magically becomes atrocious on the days Jake deGrom steps on the rubber?


There are a few reasons for the anomaly that is Jacob deGrom. Your reason is but one of them. I think you are pounding a square peg in a square hole while telling everybody else their square holes are round.


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 6:18 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
DAC wrote:

LOL You're right- It's not magical. It's called pitching for the Red Sox and Cubs when they were World Series caliber teams with high end offenses.


:lol: As if the pitching of guys like Lester has nothing to do with teams being "World Series caliber".

Both of his home parks have been friendly to hitters, particularly Fenway Park. Do you think that has anything at all to do with his teams scoring a lot of runs? And do you think those small parks with minimal foul territory are something he has to deal with as a pitcher?


And we all know it takes helluva lot more to be a playoff team than 1 starting pitcher.



Here's Lester's "run support" on June 3, June 9, July 25, and August 16: 2, 2, 2, 1. Yet he somehow managed to go 4-0 in those games.


Lester should feel fortunate that the bullpen and defense held the opposition to 0 runs in the 10 total innings after he left those games. It takes a team to win.

By the way, deGrom has had 8 games in which he received a loss or no decision after surrendered 1 or fewer runs. deGrom would have loved 2 runs in those games.


No, when he left those games, he couldn't possibly lose. You're using bullshit stats to arrive at bullshit conclusions, i.e. that Lester gets "great 'run support'", as if the Cubs score a machine-like 6 runs every time he takes the mound. When I point out the FACT that they often score two or less runs when he pitches, you have some other reason as to why Lester has an excellent record other than his own ability, like the "great Cubs bullpen" which you will simultaneously blame for Quintana's less than great record in the next conversation.


:lol: Bullshit conclusions? Coming from the guy who cherry-picked some games, as if it means anything, and seemingly doesn't know how an average works. What does Quintana have to do with anything? Do always cherry pick and straw man?

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PostPosted: Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:31 pm 
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DAC wrote:
:lol: Bullshit conclusions? Coming from the guy who cherry-picked some games, as if it means anything, and seemingly doesn't know how an average works. What does Quintana have to do with anything? Do always cherry pick and straw man?


:lol: It's about 20% of his games this year that he didn't get "run support".

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