OK, I am pre-betting today since I am going up to Michigan this weekend.

My betting sheet looks like a mess but I think I am ok with it.

I'm big on Colonel John. I love the post. I love the work over Churchill. The reports from there are that he's filled out alot since the Santa Anita Derby and he's won from the pace and off the pace. His speed numbers are a little bit slower than some of the other top contenders but I think part of that is the fact he raced in California but look at his times - he was almost two seconds faster than Gayego in the AK Derby.

I'm going Colonel John to win and place (probably 10-20)

I'm also tabbing some action on Z Fortune( 5-5). I think his race in Arkansas was very good being hung wide most of the mile and an eighth.

I'm going to go
10 on top of 4,6,8,9,16,19 and the reverse for exactas. I am still debating a 5 or 6 horse box to cover me should Colonel John run out. If I went with 5 horses, I'd drop Gayego and Visionaire. 6 - drop just Visionaire.

I was going to post about Court Vision - I like the change they made putting blinks on which can help a closer keep to tasks and I think there is going to be a hellacious pace in this race. His closes have been better than Visionaire. I can't eliminate Visionaire but the more I look at his starts, I don't think he's this quality.

Visionaire is still bothering me. I've made it about halfway through posts eliminating him and haven't been able to pull the trigger yet.

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Fire Phil Emery

Cutting Big Brown. Shock! Surprise! Loud Noises!

Not only does he have the 20 post, but he has nothing but speed inside of him. Either he's going to get over to the rail and absolutely spend himself, or he's going to not make it to the rail and get hung wide on the first turn. He's inexperienced as well, and I can't see him making an extremely wide trip and making it through OK. This one may very well come back to bite me , but I'll take my chances. Plus, if BB is in the exacta the payout will be noticably lessened, so I'm going to just hope. I actually feel OK about it.

I have four more to cut. I'm really struggling right now. The only two that I think I know are in for me are Pyro and Dennis of Cork.

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Fire Phil Emery

Vince- it's downpouring in Louisville right now, is going to rain all night, and will be raining tomorrow. They are going to be running in the slop. You know, just in case we needed another complication.

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Fire Phil Emery

Tossing Recapturetheglory

I have War Emblem on the mind too much. He's going to be standing next to two horses gunning it to the max, one of which is a ML favorite. He's coming from 19. ET Baird isn't a great jockey. He broke his maiden at Hawthorne. I need to stop thinking about him.

I'm down to 9.

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Fire Phil Emery

Throwing out Tale of Ekati

I think this horse could step up in the mud. Randy Moss seems to think that he set a pretty grueling pace and that should excuse the slow close in the Wood Memorial.

That being said, the two post is a tough break for a horse with marginal early speed. He has little speed next to him, but those first two or three horses are liable to get jostled quite a bit. He's going to have to be pressing the pace, and I don't think he can get there early on. Just comparing him to Court Vision, I have reason to believe that CV will improve significantly (blinkers, nice workouts, good close in Wood with bad trip.) If the Wood is an extra 16th of a mile CV wins.

I'm down to 8:

4: Court Vision
5: Eight Belles
6: Z Fortune
8: Visionaire
9: Pyro
10: Colonel John
16: Dennis of Cork
19: Gayego

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Fire Phil Emery

I just noticed that we agree on every horse Vince so far except for the filly. Uh oh. That's OK, I think the filly stays for me. I have two more to drop. I may wait until tomorrow to see the conditions.

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Fire Phil Emery

I expect to check the board tomorrow and to have a horse to choose to win, and an exacta/trifecta to bet on.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I'm not betting a horse to win this derby, but I'll tell you right now that if Denis of Cork (16) is still on the board at 25-1 or even 20-1 I'd take that. If you are less adventurous and the track isn't wet, bet Colonel John to win.

If you put a gun to my head, I'd box these three for the tri:

Colonel John
Denis of Cork
Z Fortune

If its wet, toss Colonel John and include Pyro instead. I wouldn't play any trifectas though unless you have a big bankroll or don't especially mind burning your money. If it's the latter, you could always donate it to me.

I'm boxing six for the exacta. Since it's a box, you can go as low as $1 per bet, which would be $30 if you want to tail me. Vince is keying on Colonel John, and if you tail him it'll cost you about $50 or so between win, place, and exacta betting.

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Fire Phil Emery

Cutting Gayego. I think he comes down a bit from the Arkansas Derby performance, he's bred for shorter distances, and he'll have a bad time of it with Big Brown doing everything in his power to bang in front of him. 19 is a tough post. His workout schedule has been... peculiar, to say the least.

I've spent more time studying this race than I have for all of my finals combined. I hope it pays off. The last cut won't be until tomorrow.

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Fire Phil Emery

I'm up in Michigan and had to bet yesterday without weather reports etc. Here's my tickets

20 win colonel john
5 wps z fortune
1 ebx pwheel 10/2,4,5,8,15
2 ebx pwheel
10/6,9,16,19
1 tri
6,10/6,9,10/4,6,9,10,16

Don't worry Vince, the course seems to be drying out quickly, and they are downgrading the chances for rain today. Should be OK by the afternoon.

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Fire Phil Emery

the derby is a crapshoot anyway, rain or no rain

Half-tossing Eight Belles

Half agree with Vince, in that I don't think the Filly can win. I do think she can get a piece, and quite possibly place. As such, it doesn't make sense to play her on top of the exactas. I'm jettisoning the six-horse box approach and going for something a bit more nuanced.

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Fire Phil Emery

These are my for sure, no-doubt plays right now:

$2 EX box 4, 6, 8, 16
$2 EX 4-5, 6-5, 8-5, 16-5

That puts me at $32, but I haven't done anything with Pyro or CJ yet. I'm thinking about viable tri strategies with these two, as I don't like the exacta payouts.

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Fire Phil Emery

I'm going with Pyro to win. Tri will be Pyro, Court Vision and Denis of Cork.

I am taking Pyro, to win, as well.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Adding a $1 tri wheel with the 10 on top of the 4, 5, 6, 8, and 16.

Also, $1 tri wheel with the 9 on top of the 4, 6, and 16 (this is strictly CYA)

Total cost for day- $58

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Fire Phil Emery

Good God. Big Brown is an absolute beast. I can't even imagine how much this horse will be favored by in two weeks.

Well, that sucked.

I had the filly pegged in the place in my exactas and tris (unfortunately, they just euthanized her. Very sad.) Dennis of Cork came up for third. If I was going to get beat, I'm willing to get beat by a three-time starter coming from post 20 as the favorite. Unfortunately, if I box the horses under Big Brown instead of Colonel John I hit the tri. C'est la vie.

BB got hung five wide on the first turn and it didn't matter.

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Fire Phil Emery

So, I have a dream about a horse and it dies. That is very disconcerting and sad. Maybe I'm a horse whisperer?

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You know me like that.

$1700 for a $1 trifecta. Had I placed a $20 saver with BB the same way I did with CJ I'd be eating steak tonight. I never thought the tri payout would be that big with Big Brown on top.

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Fire Phil Emery

Yea, to see what can happen to a horse in this sport makes you somewhat question the ethics of the whole thing. I know these people take tremendous care of these horses, more care than any other horse could probably get, but it still makes you think about the whole thing. It's one thing to kill an animal for eating, and even one thing to kill an animal in sport which helps the deer population, but to me, I wonder if it's completely another thing to use an animal for entertainment purposes for a bunch of rich snobs at some race only to have it break both ankles and have to be put to death on the spot. I'm not saying I'm against racing or anything, but for me, it's always been somewhat of a struggle on my thoughts about it. I'm sure this is going to get some 20 page documented paper from Irish Boy

It's a concern, and I think that they do everything they can to mitigate the concerns. You see the synthetic movement taking place, where tracks have installed surfaces at great expense just for the possibility of greater safety.

I'm not sure how much of the sport is really rich snobs. Sure, there are a bunch there today at Churchill Downs, but the group you see out at Hawthorne or Arlington on your average weekend isn't a cavalcade of the rich and famous.

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Fire Phil Emery

I agree on the rich snob comment. I mean every walk of life bets on horses. I think I was all pissed about it because NBC had their red carpet thing with all of these celebrities to spend a bunch of money for the race

Think of it like the Super Bowl. The rich are there, but that's not a representative group. The group on the infield isn't either, but probably in the other direction.

Big Brown's feet may not hold up, but if they do... Triple Crown.

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Fire Phil Emery

Yea, I was just annoyed that we had to have a red carpet event, just like they did with the Super Bowl this year. What a waste of television time.

Anyway, if Big Brown is in good shape after this race I don't know how you bet against this horse in two weeks.

Some final thoughts before I finish thinking about this one:

Big Brown ran a monster race today. OK, obvious, but I honestly was giddy when I saw him rushing up along the onside entering the stretch; I figured that he was going to tire himself out on the turn and all my closers would pick up the pieces. Of course, he didn't get tired.

Neither Colonel John nor Pyro really fired, but the slow pace finished them off. Pyro was cut off a bit at the start, and there was no way he'd close large enough to come back. Still, that would explain a place or show result for those colts; they still fininished a bit back, and Dennis of Cork passed them both from further back.

The big story, of course, is going to be the death of Eight Belles, which is very unfortunate in every sense of the word. It is unforuntate for the filly, of course, who proved her worth by beating 90% of the field. It's unfortunate for the connections, who should be celebrating a very good showing of their two fillies, one of whom won the Kentucky Oaks yesterday. And it is unfortunate for a sport that lost its Kentucky Derby winner two years ago in the Preakness and isn't tremendously popular to begin with.

Big Brown will go as far as his feet will take him. Regardless of the outcome of the Preakness or the Belmont, Big Brown will not be running in his fourth year. He can only go as ar as his feet take him, and those feet are absolutely beaten up. It looks like those feet are the only thing that can stop him; after today, I don't see who can stop him.

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Fire Phil Emery

Not to make light of the situation and I know horse may not know how big this race is, but if you have to die, wouldn't you want to be finishing second in the Kentucky Derby is a way to go out, if it finished first, this would be the saddest day in Derby history. It is still a sad thing, I had Big Brown, but and I celebrated the win, but to hear Eight Belles die was sad, and earlier in the day I watched a thing about Barbaro on HBO.

Yes it looks like barring injury, we may get our Triple Crown.

Hey Irish Boy, I know nothing about horse racing so here's my question. I saw that horse turning its head down the stretch. Is that horse breaking its legs the jockey's fault? Seems like to break 2 legs it would be the jockey pushing it too hard and not "feeling" the horse saying there is a problem. Thoughts?

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You know me like that.