here's the latest from Bob Gardiner at Lake County Stormwater Management Commission.
Winter is hitting with a vengeance and making up for lost time. The cold temperatures this week almost seem blasé compared to what is coming.
We will probably see some snow flurries this afternoon but probably not more than an inch of fluffy snow. The forecast is only for 0.2” this afternoon. High temperature today is about 4° but the wind chill is -10°. Low tonight is -6° with a windchill of -20°.
Saturday and Sunday look partly cloudy with a high around 10°. And then it looks like things may get bad.
First off, there is still a lot of variability in the models with respect to the path of the storm and how much snow will fall. Figure if the storm goes further north or south we could see a change in the snowfall…but I think we are going to see the really cold temperatures regardless. Keep an eye on this over the weekend!
The snow part of the next storm is forecast to hit late Sunday night. The temperature will be about 5° with a wind chill of about -10. Current forecast has about 3” of snow falling Sunday night to 6am Monday morning. Wind is forecast to be gusting to about 30mph.
About another 5”-6” of snow are forecast to fall during the day Monday along with winds gusting to about 25mph-30mph. Snow will start tailing off Monday evening. With the low temperatures and gusty wind I can’t help but think there will be blowing and drifting snow.
Finally the snow stops…and the temperature crashes with the backside of the storm. The low Tuesday night is -16° with about a 20mph wind dropping the wind chill to a
skin freezing -38°. This is what the NWS had to say in the Forecast Discussion this morning:
Once temps begin to fall late Monday afternoon on the backside of
the system, they will continue falling through the day Tuesday on
gusty west winds. Temps area-wide will likely fall below zero early
to mid-afternoon with wind chills approaching warning criteria of
-30F by around sunset. Sub-zero air temps will then likely continue
through Thursday morning, and possibly even into Friday for some
locations if colder guidance is correct. With gusty west winds
continuing through this time, wind chills of -30 to -45F are
forecast both Tuesday night and Wednesday night.
To put some perspective on this potential cold, only eight times
since 1872 has Chicago recorded sub-zero highs on at least two
consecutive days, the most recent being early February 1996.
Additionally, 850hPa temps of -30C are a rarity for this region,
with central IL sounding climatology dating back to 1949 indicating
around only a handful of occurrences.
I also attached the NWS Site Report from yesterday afternoon. You can go to the NWS Chicago website and look for updated reports in the upper right hand corner of the page:
https://www.weather.gov/lot/ Here is the Lake County SkyWarn forecast:
HAZARDS: LCS Hazard Level 2 until 9 AM Saturday.
SHORT TERM: Winter has officially dug in, so to speak. Coldest I found this morning was in Wauconda with -11. A weak wave will be crossing south of us today. Some high clouds are already arriving and clouds will increase as the day goes on. Could be some flurries at the state line with maybe a dusting in the south. Highs will likely top out around 4. Wind chills will get slightly above the level 2 criteria today but will keep the level 2 for wind chill going because it will fall below -15 again tonight and as not to confuse everyone that's it's still somewhat dangerous. Depending on how quick the clouds clear we will will see -6 to -11 again tonight.
LONGER TERM: Saturday and Sunday jump up to 10 and 12 with a balmy 20 on Monday. But the 20 comes with issues. A rather potent system will bring snow to the area but the storm track is still uncertain. Most models are centering around 5" but there are variations from 3" to 10". After the snow passes, if you think the temperatures crashed today, wait. Could see the coldest temperatures since 1996 with a reasonable chance to see some sub -20 lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning with highs Wednesday that may not make -5 and may not make zero on Thursday. Wind chills will likely get into the level 4 criteria of -35 or lower.
Today:(B) Increasing clouds with snow flurries and some light snow possible later this afternoon. High 4
Tonight:(A) Mostly clear. Low -9 with winds chills as low as -20
Saturday:(B) Partly cloudy. High 10
Saturday Night:(B) Partly cloudy. Low -1
Sunday:(B) Partly cloudy. High 11
Sunday Night:(B) Chance of snow late. Low 5
Monday:(B) Snow. High 20
Monday Night:(C) Snow ending. Low 0 WC -25
Tuesday:(C) Partly cloudy. High 2 WC -20
Tuesday Night:(C) Clear and very cold with -35 winds chills. Record low -18
Wednesday:(C) Partly cloudy with -35 wind chills. High -5
Wednesday Night:(C) Clear with wind chills -30. Record low -16.
Thursday:(C) Partly cloudy. High 1
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