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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

How much for anyone else?

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 starting Friday at noon ending Sunday at 6

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Super Steed is now on the radar. Doesn't hurt to have a sire who's a Kentucky Derby winner in Super Saver. Super Saver has the track record for two year olds at Churchill at 1 1/16 mi. in under 1:43, another fact that bodes well for Super Steed.

But I don't think he is fit enough yet to win high graded stakes at 1 1/8 mi., let alone a buck and a quarter. He's still got work to do. I wonder what his time would have been in the Southwest without the wide trip? Low 1:43 or high 1:42? You have to like the heart of this horse. He runs his race and doesn't care about the competition.

Gray Attempt is still a good horse, who got the shaft with interference in the Southwest. What does it take for the stewards to DQ a jockey for unsportsmanlike behavior? What happened to Gray Attempt was the definition of unsportsmanlike. So often you see the stewards not doing their jobs with interference, where they give a fouling horse a pass.

No way anything that was in the Southwest is winning the Derby. That race was just fucking terrible.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Super Steed is a good story. It is great for the sport that he won the Southwest as such a big underdog. I'm not saying you should crown him yet, but objectively he deserves consideration with his pedigree. He would need to be at least a second faster a 1 1/16 mi., but you can make that argument that he was faster because of the wide trip he took. He won by brute force going wide. That shipper that placed second, was a good horse.

I'm going to say nothing in that race cashes a check in the Derby. Heck, I'm not even sure anything from that race should even be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Jones should point Super Steed for the Remington Derby.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

You would be hard pressed to find any horse today to win the Derby. They're still growing and maturing and none have been tested at 1 1/4 mi. Super Steed is at least headed in the right direction and has more than able pedigree. We'll get to see him again soon in the Rebel. Then you can tell me I'm wrong.

There was big movement in the futures odds on Bourbon War today. From the time the pool opened at noon to this evening, the odds dropped from 12 to 7.

I got a little at 9.

What do you mean, Rube? It's not fixed odds. It's a parimutuel pool. You're not going to be locked until it closes on Sunday.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

My misunderstanding. I thought you could lock in the price.

Well, I'm gonna say you get better than 9/1 when the pool closes. But I'm also gonna say you get better than 9/1 if he makes the gate in the Derby.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Year 3 and Rube still doesn't understand parimutuel

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I took 11/1 on Hidden Scroll for $50. It's probably a bad bet considering all the things that can happen between now and May 4, but he's easily the best three-year-old I've seen and if he runs the way I suspect he will in the Florida Derby he'll likely be no more than 5/1 in Kentucky.

Of course, Baffert is going to show up with an army of juice trains. Did you see that ridiculous work by Improbable? He had the thing so high for the San Felipe that when he took him over to work at Los Al Van Dyke couldn't even get him pulled up on the backstretch. The fucking horse was more loaded than Vince Neil after a party at the Playboy Mansion.

Hidden Scroll is the real deal and I'm hoping a square guy like Mott can still win the Kentucky Derby but I have my doubts.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

It's still too early for me but I loved how Bourbon War finished the Fountain of Youth. He seemed quite mature as he relaxed early, dealt with some traffic on the backstretch, didn't seem to get too ruffled and then made a huge move on everyone in the stretch (and galloped out the best, too). A lot can happen between now and then, but he's a strong contender for the Florida Derby if that's where he goes, and he's going to do well with added distance. But I'm not really into the future pools, that race is hard enough to 'cap.

I like Bourbon War, but what about Mucho Gusto from the Baffert barn?

He won the Robert Lewis Stakes at S.A. in early Feb. at 1 1/6 mi. on the wet track in 1:41:81, beating Gunmetal Gray by five lengths.

If this horse isn't super classy, I don't know what is.

It could be (it won't however) an all Baffert Super:Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster and your guy Mucho Gusto. I really like his bloodlines (Mucho Macho Man/Itsagiantcauseway). Do you think he's headed to the Rebel? It seems like he might be able to adjust his style for the race at hand; that bodes well for him. I like him too, Rube.

Mucho Gusto headed next to the Sunland Derby in two weeks. Listed as probable.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Mucho_Gusto_1#

Here's the Bovada odds on the Derby. The futures pool opens again on the 5th.

Game Winner +600
Improbable +750
Maximum Security +1200
Code Of Honor +1600
Omaha Beach +1600
Bourbon War +2000
Cutting Humor +2000
Hidden Scroll +2000
Long Range Toddy +2000
Roadster +2000
Anothertwistafate +2500
By My Standards +2500
Complexity +2500
Global Campaign +2500
Haikal +2500
Instagrand +2500
Mucho +2500
Nolo Contesto +2500
Tacitus +2500
Vekoma +2500
War Of Will +2500
Win Win Win +2500
Cairo Cat +3300
Call Paul +3300
Country House +3300
Frosted Ice +3300
Galilean +3300
Gunmetal Gray +3300
King For A Day +3300
Maximus Mischief +3300
Mucho Gusto +3300
Network Effect +3300
Spinoff +3300
Tax +3300
US Navy Cross +3300
Walking Thunder +3300
Mihos +4000
Mind Control +4000
Signalman +4000
Standard Deviation +4000
Coliseum +5000
Harvey Wallbanger +5000
Royal Marine +5000
Knicks Go +10000

Long Range Toddy, JORR?

His grandfather, A.P. Indy, had second fastest time ever in Belmont Stakes in '92 after Secretariat. A.P. Indy just turned 30 years old, March 31st!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruUylcXtcWU

Might be better at a buck and a quarter than Omaha Beach, Game Winner and Improbable.

Long Range Toddy worked 5f, April 1st, in 1:00.00 (b) finishing 1/18

His performance in the Rebel against Improbable was very impressive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58GE-kM7pxg&t=229s

I hope Anothertwistoffate gets in. He's at No. 24 on the KD leaderboard after today's preps.

So he'll have to run in the Lexington or Arkansas. His last workout was :46 and change for 4f after his second in the Sunland. By cracky!

Took a shot at him in the futures today. Can't get excited taking Maximum Security at 7-1. Will wait for Derby day for him, but he'll prob. be down to 4-1 by then.

As of now, I've got Bourbon War, Long Range Toddy and Anothertwistoffate.

I'm gonna say the winner comes from either the Fla. Derby or the SA Derby.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I liked Vekoma's effort in the Blue Grass and the fact he was on the lead the whole time. But 1:50 for 1 1/8 mi. isn't going to cut it.

He's improved and has heart, but will have to be a lot better in the Derby. Win Win Win finished nice, but again, too slow.

I don't like the way he throws that left leg out. I think it will slow him down just enough when the chips are really down. There was a strong front-end bias at KEE today.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

JORR, he's still a two-year old. He's a May 22 foal. He'll turn three after the Kentucky Derby. He made giant strides winning today.

Castellano said this about the horse in this nice article.

“Every time I asked him, he kicked on a little bit,” he said. “I’ve been learning about the horse. I’ve been watching his races. I really fell in love with the horse last week when I worked the horse. I was very optimistic about winning the race today.”

posting.php?mode=quote&f=129&p=3195859

I bought a little of him, too. Futures have come way down for him, now 18-1.

Look at that terrible gait in the stretch. For a minute I thought he might take off like a helicopter or screw himself into the ground:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efVRlXbKbtk

Anyhow, I think the way he dominated that field yesterday just illustrates how strong the group in Florida is.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Vekoma's going to win the whole damn thing with Castellano, you watch. They're magic together.

Let's not forget that last year's BG winner, Good Magic, finished second in the KD. Vekoma's only the second horse to win the BG in his 4th start.

The trainer himself said this was not even how good the horse is in praising his talent. I read that Seattle Slew had a weird gait, too, and look how he turned out.

Futures took a big nose dive on Vekoma after the win. Went down to 17-1.

I would be utterly shocked if he won the Derby. Bourbon War went at 32/1 in that last pool and Vekoma is 17/1? I know who I prefer.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Bourbon War has won 2 of 5, with no stakes wins and a second in a G3. Vekoma has won 3 of 4, with a third in a G3 and a 1st in a G1.

You're in denial, JORR. Just trying to be helpful.