Okay. If you think Vekoma is a better horse than Bourbon War, we'll have to agree to disagree. Hopefully we get a chance to find out.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Omaha F*cking Beach

He was large, wasn't he? The problem I have with him is I bet him in two maiden races and he was obviously much the best both times. Once he got run down late by Nolo Contesto and the other time he came alongside the last horse he refused to go by. It seemed like he enjoyed running paired up. I thought Mandella would blinker him but instead they just sent him to the lead earlier in his races. He blew out that field in the slop racing on the front. Then he took the lead fairly early and held off Game Winner in the Rebel. And then yesterday, the big move to the front and Improbable wasn't going to catch him even if they had to go another furlong. The question we have to ask is whether he can wire the Derby field or make a big early move to the lead and hold off horses like Game Winner, Code of Honor, Roadster, and Bourbon War. I wouldn't feel great about Omaha Beach if one of the Baffert horses took the lead into the stretch and Omaha Beach was trying to run him down.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Bottom line for me is that I love how Omaha Beach starts and really love how he finishes. The fact that he so good out of the gate he can position himself however he wants.

Where Mike Smith lands should be telling. I think Roadster trip was unlike what will happen at CD in May. Because of that I Like Omaha Beach over Roadster (who m/l maker for the Derby Mike Battaglia would make the favorite).

I definitely think Game Winner is the best of the Bafferts. Improbable has gate issues every time.

I'm still hoping Bourbon War makes the gate. I have to think there will be a few defections right off the bat. Is the Japanese horse coming?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Futures pool #4 I have Bourbon War, wife has Roadster.

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

We gotta hope Bourbon War can make the gate. 32/1 is going to be good if he does.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

I really hope for your sake that he gets in, but I must say I think it's highly doubtful. There are going to be several very, very good horses like Bourbon War on the outside looking in, although they should do well this summer.

I do believe the Japan Horse will be entered. That will help inflate the pools but edge out one horse at least.

My (way too early) Top Three:

1. Omaha Beach
2. Game Winner
3. Plus Que Parfait (no, I am not stoned. Currently.)

Am I the only one seeing absolutely no front-end speed (other than Omaha Beach). I mean maybe Grey Magician or Tax. They (Speed horses) were all knocked out in the prep races.

Country House switched up trainers / jockey, could be a good horse to fill out a box.

Supposedly Maximum Security's chakra is all knotted up, best to avoid wagering on Max Sec

Yeah, Bourbon War does have a few in front of him. But I think some horses will drop out. We may not get to him though. It is what it is. Did you see there's a $300,000 Invitational at a mile and an eighth at Oaklawn on Derby Day? That's gonna take some horses from the Pat Day. And I'd guess that's where Owendale and Bourbon War go if they don't make the gate.

I think there may be more speed in there than you're accounting for. There's Maximum Security and I suspect at least one of the Baffert horses will be very close to the pace.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Lasix gone by 2020.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/co ... edication/

The four horses that are probably best right now are Omaha Beach, Roadster, Maximum Security and Vekoma.

All G1 winners. And I wouldn't count out War of Will if he's healthy.

I still don't see any real pace here, particularly early on. Other than Omaha Beach and Maximum Security I don't see more than one or two horses that were at or even near the lead in the 1st two splits of the races this year. There may be horses that are "sent" to the lead, but changing a horses running style or asking him to do something he hasn't done before, for this race, at this distance and with this many runners can't be a good idea. I'm anticipating rather slow 1/4 and 1/2 mile times. I believe the winner will be a horse that can run in a great deal of traffic. (e.g. just watch Plus Que Parfait's run in the UAE Derby).

Omaha Beach has been the best of the preps, he fits very well and could be the run away and hide. I just don't think it's going to be that easy. I think the pace (and obviously post position will affect this) is going to lead to a lot of traffic. It will be a good race though with plenty of chances to score big. Looking forward to what you guys think as we draw nearer.

I have to see the draw and the track conditions first, but I'm leaning more and more toward Improbable. Of course, he has his issues in the gate and who knows how the huge crowd and all the commotion will effect him. But if any horse is capable of wiring this field I think it's him. And I'm becoming more and more certain he will be sent for the lead. I've watched the Arkansas Derby MANY times and it is clear that he wasn't handling that track. I suspect he didn't like the kickback which is why he was taken outside so early. I think he is sitting on a giant race and he'll probably be the third choice among the Baffert horses. You might even get 10 or 12/1 on him.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don