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 Post subject: Belmont Notes - 6/4
PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 1:09 pm 
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The post positions were drawn for the Belmont Stakes. Here they are:

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Morning Line
1 Big Brown K. Desormeaux R. Dutrow, Jr. 2-5
2 Guadalcanal J. Castellano F. Seitz 50-1
3 Macho Again G. Gomez D. Stewart 20-1
4 Denis of Cork R. Albarado D. Carroll 12-1
5 Casino Drive E. Prado K. Fujisawa 7-2
6 Da’ Tara A. Garcia N. Zito 30-1
7 Tale of Ekati E. Coa B. Tagg 20-1
8 Anak Nakal J. Leparoux N. Zito 30-1
9 Ready’s Echo J. Velazquez T. Pletcher 30-1
10 Icabad Crane Jeremy Rose G. Motion 20-1


- A suprise entry went through yesterday when maiden Guadalcanal entered into the race. His last start was a competitive 2nd in a maiden turf race at Churchill Downs at a mile and a half.

- Casino Drive was made the 7/2 second choice after his win in the Peter Pan. He's 2-2 for his lifetime.

- Big Brown's Number 1 post has produced the most Belmont winners since 1905 with 23 winners. Posts 3 and 5 were tied for second with 13 a piece.

- Big Brown is being stabled in Bobby Frankel's barn at Belmont where 2003 winner Empire Maker was stabled. Empire Maker won the 2003 race, ending the bid of Funny Cide.

- Casino Drive's jockey Edgar Prado has won the Belmont twice and both times spoiling Triple Crown bids - in 2004 aboard Birdstone (nipping Smarty Jones) and 2002 on Sarava (beating War Emblem)

- A sloppy track is possible for Saturday. The track is sloppy today and there is a chance of rain each day up to and including Saturday.


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2008 11:11 pm 
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If the track stays sloppy, I'll be placing a sizable bet on Tale of Ekati.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 05, 2008 11:56 am 
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Irish Boy wrote:
If the track stays sloppy, I'll be placing a sizable bet on Tale of Ekati.


You know, his mother was mudder...


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 11:21 am 
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Casino Drive might be injured. Uh Oh...

That hurts me mainly because I was planning on tossing him anyway. Damn it.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:46 pm 
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If Casino Drive scratches, anything above 1-9 on Big Brown would be a good price. Load up on the show and collect your 5%.

Did you see Suffolk Downs in Boston? They would raise the Mass. Handicap to a 5M dollar purse if Curlin and Big Brown both run and are undefeated coming into it - plus they each would get a 1M participation bonus.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:48 pm 
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Good for Curlin, cause it gets him over the Cigar figure. Enough for BB? And why Suffolk? Needless to say, I'd love to see it, but I'd love to see it even more during the BC. I know its gonna be synthetic, but still.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:52 pm 
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Irish Boy wrote:
Good for Curlin, cause it gets him over the Cigar figure. Enough for BB? And why Suffolk? Needless to say, I'd love to see it, but I'd love to see it even more during the BC. I know its gonna be synthetic, but still.


I have a feeling that Curlin will not race in the US this year. He's going to run in either the Arc or the Japan Cup instead of the Breeders Cup.

As for why Suffolk? Why not? The Mass Handicap used to be a great race, but over the years horses have stayed away from Suffolk. It's kind of a dump and they probably would get a huge on track handle if they could get one or both on track.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 1:14 pm 
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Isn't Curlin getting ready for the Foster?

I don't really care if they run the race at Finger Lakes or Turf Paradise, I just want to see the damn race. I'm just surprised that a higher prestige course isn't making a run at it. Saratoga probably wants BB in the Travers so they won't do it. Synthetics seem to be out, so there goes Keeneland and the California tracks. Churchill?

I'd think that they need a couple other decent horses in it to offer a good purse. $5 Million in purse money requires $25 million in handle, and you might not get that for a match race (figurative or literal.) Plus, if it's at Suffolk, you're not going to make it up with on-track handle during the rest of the day.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 2:19 pm 
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You're right - I forgot that he's going to the Foster. That race could be interesting if Grasshopper, Brass Hat Student Council and Perfect Drift all run.

As for looking down the road, The Woodward the week after the Travers would work for Curlin v. Big Brown but it's likely that Big Brown will stay with 3 y.o's until he needs to run against the big boys. The Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont is 9/27. Those would be the best chances with 3+ and on dirt.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 7:30 pm 
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Man, you're more hopeful about him running after the Belmont than I am.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 8:07 pm 
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After re-watching the Preakness, I have to use Icabad Crane in here. His breeding with Rahy should get the distance and he had a rough trip in the Preakness having to be checked at the top of the turn and then blocked by a tired horse.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 8:26 pm 
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I didn't like any of those horses in the Preakness. The only two I like besides BB are Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati, especially the latter if its wet. But frankly, I'm expected this one to be a walkover.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 9:19 pm 
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I could see the 2nd and 3rd place finishers both stepping up from that last race as both improved and could take another step up. I'm not a huge Beyer guy but MA's speed figures in his last three dirt starts have gone 95-100-107. He could bounce, but could also continue moving up. Wild Again horses can run all day as well. IC shows a similar pattern of 90-99-106.

As for Denis of Cork, I dont think there will be a ton of pace to run at and he'll need to be forwardly placed tomorrow. His Derby was a good race, but I have no idea how good it really was since he actually lost ground in the stretch to the Big Brown.

I dont think Tale of Ekati can get the distance - call me crazy with Sunday Silence on the mom's side but I think he was gassed after a mile in the Derby and is better suited to 9 furlongs.

I'm actually considering dropping the maiden into my tri's. His run on the lawn over 12 furlongs was a good race and he looks to love running long. If you remember in 2005, there was a similar horse in Nolan's Cat who looked like he wanted distance and he hit the board as a maiden at 50-1.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 9:35 pm 
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I guess I just figure that D of C and Tale of Ekati had rough trips in the Derby, in that everyone has rough trips in the Derby. Ekati had to be constantly rated coming from in on the rail. D of C was viered in sharply, and that couldn't have helped. I like the former more than the latter on a fast track; Ekati has hooves built for the slop.

My uncle was all over Macho Again in the Preakness. My concern Beyer-wise is that horses don't tend to keep improving after two big improvements, even classy 3yos, and so I figure that their true ability is somewhere in the middle of those numbers.

I guess what I'm doing is asking myself "If BB wasn't running, who'd deserve to be the favorite?" I think it's Dennis of Cork. I figure it'll take something flukish for BB to lose anyway, but that's the nature of the game.

And per our Curlin/BB conversation; if only Arlington could lure them for the Million. Curlin might want the race as a prep for the Arc. BB won his maiden on turf. I'd give up red meat for a month to see that race live.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 9:35 pm 
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Also- will look closer at Guadalcanal (right?), per your recommendation.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:09 pm 
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Irish Boy wrote:
Also- will look closer at Guadalcanal (right?), per your recommendation.


He's probably worth a few bucks in your tri's - but not much past that. His dirt races aren't much to look at.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:12 pm 
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My issue with Tale of Ekati is what kind of horse is he - is he a stalker or closer? I thought in the Derby he tried to stalk and got crushed....He did it in the Wood as well and won. You might be right about him and Tagg improves him. He's a surly old bastard but can train a horse.


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