All right here we go, feeling very positive about this year despite the venue. I'm breaking this down by race so here goes

FRIDAY 11/01

SA R5 1-JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
Not a lot of data as this is a relatively new race, and it is wide open. Ward has 3 horses here (the 7, 9, and 12) all of which will be bet down. But Ward has struggled in graded stakes and I think that continues today. That being said his 9-Four Wheel Drive is out of American Pharoah and they’ve done well. I ended up on the 10-A’Ali who has had success at this distance abroad, despite a pedigree that seems would want a longer than a sprint, as well as the 1-Chiminey Rock who would have to turn tables on the 7-Kimari…wide open

Picks 9-1-10/7-5-13

SA R6 2-JUVENILE TURF

These two days won’t be won or lost with this decision, but I am against Aidan O’Brien. He is a talented trainer, but he has been in a funk. If he does well, I am somewhat sunk. (breaking into beastie boys here), I think the 4-Decorated Invader has the best resume of the group having won at Saratoga and Woodbine, and gets Irad Ortiz up. The 7-Andesite doesn’t jump off the paper but I have notes that say otherwise, and Rosario gets the mount this time…Horse for the course include the 14-Hit the Road who beat two contenders here in a stakes race…and I like the 6-Graceful Kitten (not that big a fan of the pedigree or the owners) but could sneak in unnoticed via Gulfstream…not a lot of BC winners prep there…wide, wide open

PICKS 4-5-14-6-7/2-8-12

SA R7 3-JUVENILE FILLIES

This may be a little easier to hone down. I think 6-Bast will be the fav and should be after a win at SA. I think the 4-British Idiom is logical off impressive wins at Kee and Sar…the 7-Wicked Whisper is a combo of Assmusen and Rosario and undefeated…and don’t sleep on either the 9-Comical or even bigger price 8-KP Dreaming as they have had early success at SA

PICKS 4-6-7/3-8-9

SA R8 4-JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Odd stats historically as favorites have pounded the price in this race except here at SA where prices have loomed large… west coast horses have done well here but not recently…despite the post draw Pletchers 12-Sweet Melina is the horse to beat..Chad Browns 13-Selflessly will be challenging from the get go… the 5-Daahey seems to be getting some attention but I like both the 4-Abscond and the 7-Crystalle (not to mention the 8-Tango)…you’re going to have to go wide here I’m afraid

PICKS 12-13-7-4/5-10-11-8

SA R9 5-JUVENILE 1 1/16

I realize my selections have been kind of wide ranging on this first day, but such is the case with youth…however in this race I’ll take a stand and side with the 5 –Scabbard. This race will feature a good deal of speed and two heavy, heavy favorites…the 1-Dennis Moment who wowed everyone in his last two, and Bafferts 6-Eight Rings which won convincingly on this course and at this distance. While I don’t think the 1 will want to run early, he’s going to have or risked getting boxed in at the rail…if he goes, and the 6 goes, which he will, it might set up a very hot pace…one that could be taken advantage of by the 5-Scabbard, laying off the pace and getting Mike Smith and all his BC wins in the irons…the 2-Wrecking Crew has done well for trainer Peter Miller out west against some salty company and carries an awesome name

Picks 5-6/1-2-3

More tomorrow for Saturday. As always, choose wisely.

Of course all of my bets are dependent on price, but just from my early analysis these are some horses I'll be looking at:

Juvenile Turf Sprint: It's hard for me to get beyond Kimari. I made a huge bet on Chimney Rock in the Indian Summer and when Kimari missed the break I was counting the cash. I could not believe she got up to run over my money. The fact that she may not even be the favorite here is just a bonus.

Juvenile Turf: Like most of these races, this one is ridiculously tough. As a gambler, my first thought is that this would actually be a good weekend to take a break. But I'm too much of a fan of the game for that. Like OTE, I'm against O'Brien here. I may take a big swing with Vitalogy.

Juvenile Fillies: I believe OTE is mistaken about Bast being the favorite in this one. Donna Veloce seems to be a real buzz horse. Even if OTE is correct, Donna Veloce will likely be way overbet and I will be taking a stand against her. I'm interested in Comical and a couple others.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: This is another extremely difficult race. I'm likely to focus on Crystalle and hope she gets the right kind of trip.

Juvenile: I think it will be tough to beat Dennis' Moment. I will be trying to get Shoplifted to hit the ticket at a giant price.

Also, Great Ulysses is in a lesser stake in the fourth race. I believe he is a serious animal.

Good luck!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

hate SA thinking of not betting

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Continuing on Saturday...

SA 4 1-FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Covfefe is a fine horse. Getting a lot of attention and I’m hoping a lot of action, because she is going down. She is stuck on the inside and facing older Mares and Fillies(Covfefe is 3); she is ripe for an upset. Question is which one? 4-Come Dancing makes sense, since 12/18 she’s finished 1st or 2nd in 6 G-stakes races. I think the pace will heat up in the backstretch a leave the door open for someone off the pace, and that horse is the 8-Dawn the Destroyer…she’s been running with a lot of these same gals and while in the money, no 1st…I think she has a chance turn the tables at a big price…seven of the last ten winners in this race prepped at Keeneland (2, 8, and 9)…Important to note:3 year-old fillies in this race…34 tries, one win

PICKS 4-8/6-7-9-3

I'll keep this easy on everyone 1st Mike Smith only has 2 mounts on the card.....This race Kamari 7-2 but a horse he beat by 1/2 is 10-1 and grabs the rail so I like Chimney Rock

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Peace Achieved 10-1 what the fuck has this horse done wrong? The Potus Pick

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Two Sixty Bast Exacta Box

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Sweet Melania the Potus Pick I'll really look hard at Albigna

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Scabbard Mike Smith 8-1 I'm drooling

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Thanks guys for the assist.

_________________
"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

#8 Billy Batts at 50-1 in the 6th to place and show.

Never would have landed on the 8. Out of the pick 5 but some spread P4 tix still alive...for now

I was going to make a HUGE score if Graceful Kitten wins that race and I'm pretty sure he was going to until he hit the rail. I had Billy Batts underneath in the gimmicks too.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don