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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 am 
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Bagels wrote:
Frankie forecaster
:lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:10 am 
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Bagels wrote:
GoldenJet wrote:
Frank dropping nolledge!


he needs a weather related nickname to add to his collection
Frankie forecaster ?
Cold Front Constanza ?


Very SHARK-esque

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:14 am 
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Fraternal Order Of Fahrenheit
Cyclone Coztansa
Flood Plain Flapjacks
Coztansa Celsius
Equinox Eggs

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:15 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Fraternal Order Of Fahrenheit
Cyclone Coztansa
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you can't give yourself a nickname that's not how it works


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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:18 am 
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Frostbite Frank

Flash Flood Frank

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:18 am 
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Bagels wrote:
you can't give yourself a nickname that's not how it works

Image

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:20 am 
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Cold Snap Coztansa

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:28 am 
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Now calling for only up to 3" of snow for Lake County.

What the fuck Frank?!

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Last edited by GoldenJet on Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:28 am 
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Already handled that;

Frank Coztansa wrote:
The storm appears to be tracking a little further north and west then previously thought, which puts MANY of us in the warm sector of the storm. Hence the rain and ice.

There is still a chance the storm could track further south, and thus we would all get more snow.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:29 am 
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GoldenJet wrote:
Now calling for only up to 3" of snow for Lake County now.

What the fuck Frank?!


Just blame that pigfucker Skilling.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:35 am 
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Maybe SHART is more appropriate rather than SHARK

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:45 am 
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That's a shitty thing to say.


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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:53 pm 
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More from Bob Gardiner at Lake County Stormwater Management.

First I’m going to jump up on my soapbox and talk about what I think I know about weather forecasting…In general, there are a couple kinds of models, global and more local. Global models like the U.S. GFS (Global Forecast System) and ECMWF (“European” model) model the weather for the entire planet and they do a very goo job. There are also more local models like the NAM (North American Model) and a lot of others. The NWS will take a model, like the GFS, and run the model a bunch of times but tweaking the input data just a little to see how the forecast changes. This is called a model ensemble. In the end, the ensemble generates a series of probabilities of various scenarios.

My whole point is that forecasts are not reality. The storms will do what they will. The forecast gives us a range of probabilities of what we might expect. The more complex the storm or the more subtle the changes the lower the certainty for any given scenario. In this case, we have a high pressure system in the southeast rotating clockwise bringing up Gulf moisture. A low pressure system is just beginning to develop over Texas now and is rotating counterclockwise bringing up Gulf moisture. Between the southeast high and the southwest low the Gulf moisture is being pumped north. The NWS stated that the precipitable moisture in our area is about four standard deviations above normal for January and this is a HUGE departure from normal. Now, we have a huge trough of cold air slowly coming down from near Alaska. When that cold air hits all the moisture in the atmosphere it will precipitate out (remember precipitates from high school chemistry?). What the precipitation falls as depends on the temperature. In our case, the cold air is just starting to enter our area. It was near 50° in Lake Zurich at 7:30am today and is now 42° in Libertyville. Still well above 32° so precipitation is still liquid. Next, a couple of things will happen. The cold air will nose into our area late tonight, early Saturday morning. Cold air is heavier than warm, moist air so, under quiescent conditions, the cold air will ooze in under the warm air and once the ground temperature goes below 32° falling rain will freeze on contact. This is the freezing rain that covers sidewalks and roads and tree branches and power lines. The thickness of ice builds up by accretion over time. The current forecast calls for around 0.1” to 0.25” of ice. That’s bad enough but…remember that low pressure system forming over Texas? It is going to ride the jet stream up to here and strengthen along the way. The result will be strong wind and increased turbulence that will more violently combine warm moist air with cold air giving us heavy rain at first, then freezing rain as the cold progresses, going to sleet as things get even colder and the rain drops partially freeze before they hit the ground and, finally, after the entire air column has cooled enough we will start seeing the precipitation fall as snow. All these different types of precipitation depend on temperatures of just a few degrees. So the models tell us that there is a good probability of freezing rain over our area…will we see 0.1” in Lake Zurich? In Libertyville? In Zion? Who knows. However, we do know there is a good chance of seeing heavy rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow in combination in our area and that is enough to make us aware of the risks and maybe even prepare ahead of time. Below are some graphics showing the main players.


So, here’s the latest forecast (i.e. the scenario with the highest probability), heavy rain tonight on the order of 1” to 1.5”, freezing rain starting around 5am Saturday morning, peaking around 8am and continuing most of the day, also sleet from 5am to mid afternoon. Freezing rain and sleet may occur together or more of one or the other. Temperatures in the air column get cold enough to support snow from mid-afternoon Saturday, peaking from about 3pm to midnight and then tailing off to nothing by early Sunday morning. Total snow for Libertyville is about 3”. Strong winds around 40mph for the duration. As the low pressure system strengthens and moves to the northeast the counterclockwise flow will result in strong winds (40+mph) coming out of the east over Lake Michigan and pounding our shore with waves 12’ to 18’ and some as big as 23’! I’m thinking that will cause some coastal damage and flooding. Here is the forecast graph for this storm. Have a great weekend all!

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 2:58 pm 
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GOOD INFORMATION!


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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:07 pm 
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I will never tire of how horny people get for weather on this bored.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:10 pm 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
I will never tire of how horny people get for weather on this bored.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:13 pm 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
I will never tire of how horny people get for weather on this bored.
I am definitely a weather geek. Part time aviation geek as well, but Ogie is FAR SUPERIOR to me in that department.

Many moons ago, I looked into going to school in Oklahoma to study storms and meteorology. I found out you basically had to be a math major to do so which was not for me. I have taken the NWS Weather Spotter course a couple times to be a trained weather spotter. I have called in a couple times to report a wall cloud and storm rotation, but not haven't seen a tornado yet.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:16 pm 
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SpiralStairs wrote:
I will never tire of how horny people get for weather on this bored.

It's always amused me as well

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:18 pm 
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Just cleared Costco out of all of their milk. I'm prepared.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:21 pm 
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With such a direct impact on my life I follow it more than I’d like to.. my feeling is that this storm will leave me with about 5 inches of mud everywhere I have to work. I don’t love super cold weather but this winter’s rain and above freezing temps makes for long days.


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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:55 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
I have called in a couple times to report a wall cloud and storm rotation, but not haven't seen a tornado yet.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:57 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:57 pm 
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Each it and I, Bob.

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Last edited by Frank Coztansa on Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:59 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:59 pm 
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Did posting that twice make you Happ-ier?

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:01 pm 
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Frankie Goes To Meteorology School.

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:53 pm 
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You guys are gonna get so fucked. This is building hard and huge

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:55 pm 
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IkeSouth wrote:
You guys are gonna get so fucked. This is building hard and huge



That's what she said.


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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:58 pm 
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Getting kinky in here

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 Post subject: Re: STORMWATCH 2020!!
PostPosted: Fri Jan 10, 2020 8:03 pm 
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My rock hard dick is ready for the storm.

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