Heard some of the shows getting into predictions already for the cubs, and I hate predictions. A bit of negativity towards them from the score hosts (and im not saying because of the whole white sox/cubs fan issue). Issues that are being mentioned:
- No lock for 4th and 5th starter, and the options are weak.
- Closer is not definite yet.
- Pie hasnt proven he is a major leaguer yet.
- Fukudome will need a year before being able to consistently hit major league pitching.

I think, like last season, Lou and the farm team will be key if the cubs are going to make the world series. For the first time in quite a while, the cubs leveraged their farm system well. Fontenot, Theriot, Marmol, Soto came on and contributed, which is what you should be able to ask out of these guys. I feel Lou did a good job of using them in the right situations the second half of the year.

Last year, Jones carried this team to the playoffs at the end of the second half. Either Rameriz and/or Soriano need to take up that role, hopefully early on.

Two or more of these guys have to have a monstorous season: Lee, Rameriz, Soriano, Fukudome.

The bullpen needs to keep the form they had for the second half of the season last year. Howry needs to be solid. I wont be surprised when Dempster returns to the closer role.

Ted Lilly cannot be the number one pitcher. Zambrano needs to win 20 games, no BS this year.

_________________

_________________

fukodome needs to be able to get on base - even if he doesnt hit for average, he needs to take walks and get on base, hopefully batting 2nd ahead of lee and ramirez. if he can at least bat .285+ and OBP in the mid-to-upper 300's, that'll be fine. im not even concerned about power, id like to just see him consistentaly on base.

4th and 5th starters - god bless us all if dempster actually gets in the rotation. that is a BAD sign. i am hoping someone, ANYONE, shows signs of life and earns a starters spot, such as marshall, gallagher, hart. not a fan of marquis or dempster (as a starter, i never minded dempster as a reliever too much).

i dont find the closer competition that compelling right now. i feel fairly comfortable that with the stable of guys they have, someone will rise to the ocassion when needed. between howry, wood, marmol, and even dempster, someone will have a hot hand and win the job, and perform.

soriano is healthy and has some wheels. i am resigned to him being leadoff, even though i hate him there, but last year him battng leadoff AND not being able to run was double jeopardy. at least be a basestealng threat.

I would be extremely concerned with that starting rotation. Even though Zambrano was rather inconsistent last season, he's the least of my worries heading into the season. When it's all said and done, I suspect that he'll finish the season with around 17 wins. As for the rest of that rotation, that's where my concern's are.

Ted Lilly was a rock last season, very consistent. Will that be the case this season or will he revert back to being more of an innings eater than a top of the rotation starter ? I'd say, ideally, he's no more than a #3 starter on a really good rotation, maybe a #4. In the NL, however, you can get away with him being moved up a notch or two, especially in the NL North. At the least, I would expect Lilly to finish the season with 12-14 wins.

I've been a fan of Rich Hill since he got things goin in the 2nd half of 2006. Last season, he was also hot and cold, but entering his 2nd full season as a front line starter in the Cubs rotation, he's the guy I'm targeting as really emerging, and hopefully becoming a 15 win pitcher.

The rest of that rotation is hit or miss - I like Sean Marshall, but the Cubs seem determined with having veterans in the backend of the rotation. He's in the mix, but I think he'd have to perform much better than the other guys to win a spot.

I don't think Jon Lieber, Ryan Dempster or Jason Marquis are anything more than end of rotation guys (if that). I'm sure these guys will have the occasional strong starts, especially when the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, but I have to assume the Cubs are looking for these guys to eat innings more than anything.

All in all, I have major issues with getting a lot of good pitching over the course of the season from the #4 and #5 starters, and I have my doubts about Lilly pitching as good as he did last season....

As for the bullpen, I won't spend a whole lot of time on it - I think they have some good arms out there, but the obvious question is whether they have a closer. Ideally, on a team expected to win the division, I'd prefer not to have uncertainty and that's what I suspect will be the case with Kerry Wood. That's the way it seems to be stacked though early on so let's hope he can stay healthy. Marmol is obviously the future, but they don't seem inclined to rush him into that role.

I can't take CLH's Cubs observations seriously if he continue's to mis-spell Ted LILLY's name.

_________________

_________________

If the Cubs were considering Bedard, why are they not involved in Joe Blanton disucssions?

this is what i don't get...i never read anything that cubs were serious about ANY starting pitcher, they seem happy with the group they have. it has never seemed to me that the cubs feel it is a pressing need. i sure do.

I don't think they were involved much in the Bedard discussions.

I don't think they have a pressing need in the rotation. They have a top 3 that will get somewhere around 50-55 wins between the 3 (I'm pencilling in Zambrano for 19, Lilly for 15 and Hill for 16). Between Lieber, Dempster, Marquis, Marshall they can squeeze another 20-25. If (and a big if) Dempster can return to his Florida days, pre arm surgery, you are looking at a top 4 that can compete with any team in the league.

The bullpen is still the question mark to me, assuming Dempster moves to the staff. I'm not sold on Marmol, Howry or Wood as the closer. Marmol is the closer of the future, but I'm not sure the future is now. Howry has been there, done that and not exactly been great at it. He'll do an ok job, but while people hated Dempster, Howry won't be a relief. Wood - who knows if he can stay healthy for the year.

I don't know if this should be broken down piece by piece or just given a general "No".

As I mentioned above, I don't have a very high opinion of this starting rotation. Lots of questions......

penciling in hill for for 5 more than last years seems optimistic, although i hope you are right. dempster was never a dominant starter even when healthy, and he hasnt thrown 200 innings since 2002 and he was terrible. i dont have a problem with dempster as a reliever, but as a starter, i cant see him being successful. leiber, another old, hurt guy. good guy, good pitcher when healthy, but i cant rely on him to bounce back and be good again this year, after his injury problems. marquis, at least can be counted on for innings.

Not after July he can't.

_________________
You cannot make me care about the WNBA.

yeah...let me rephrase...he can be counted on for being physically able to throw innings. he did, however, come through early in the year and win some games when they were struggling. not a big fan, but i feel better about him than dempster or leiber.

I generally feel ok about the rotation in the colder months of the season. Once it warms up, I'm not confident in the backend of that rotation.

no doubt, because marquis' non-sinking meatballs only carry to the warning track in april. actually, his hr total allowed last years was way down from previous years.

Really what have they done in the offseason than get the guy from Japan. I don't see how they made their team any better. Maybe they win the division again, but not sure if they can get to the series w/ the team they have coming into the spring.

fukodome could be a big pickup and fill a big hole IF (and it is a big if) he can put up numbers similar to his career in japan. if he does, the are MUCH better than last year offensively. by having fukodome play every day in the outfield (he is a very good outfielder from all accounts) allows lou to have to rely less on the bench late in games, shuffling pinch-hitters in and out and defensive substitutions. i know pie is a big question mark offensively but he is a fine ceterfielder. the outfield defense should be WAY better this year. i think the cubs position by position are fairly deep and solid in all areas barring injury, unless pie truly CAN'T hit. starting pitching = not so sure.

I think Rich Hill, Kerry Wood and Brian Roberts are the keys to the Cubs this year.

It seems like most people expect Lilly to decline a little this year. I agree. Therefore, Hill is the logical choice to pick up the slack. Hopefully he has worked on his changeup to give him a third pitch. Zambrano will probably win 16-18 games this year (even though I am a little worried about his ever so rising ERA the last 3 years.) I expect Marquis and Leiber to come out of spring training the 4th and 5th starters, with Dempster being a middle reliever/spot starter with Hart and Marshall also making starts due to injury or lack of effectiveness from Marquis or Lieber.

Hill to me is the wild card in the rotation. If he takes the next step forward, he can give the Cubs a very good a rotation. If not, it might be a little rocky.

For me Wood is the key to the bullpen. If Wood can lock down the closer spot, Howry can be used as a set up man, his best role. And Marmol can shut down opponents in the 6th and 7th innings.

And if Roberts comes to the Cubs, you can move Soriano down in the order, and with Roberts you get a leadoff man with speed who can steal some bases. DeRosa then can be used to spell Ramirez, Lee and Fukodome.

just thought it would be interesting with 6-7 weeks left to revisit the predicitons in march, when I was browsing this board as a guest...not picking on MOFO by any means, just highlighting things I thought were true at the time as well...

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

heh heh heh...thanks for digging up THAT nugget! very glad to be very wrong about dempster.

one out of three ain't bad

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

Has there been any word on Hill's progress lately? Or is he pretty much done, atleast in a Cubs uniform?

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

This is baseball right? A .333 average is pretty good

I was wrong about Edmonds too, so I guess it's down to .250.

thank God I wasn't writing on this board till June, or I'd have some out-there predictions too coming back to me...

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

i also thought pie was the only answer in center . sign jim edmonds? no way, let felix play!

I still don't like the Edmonds aquisition, but for a different reason. he's bound to get injured and the Cubs would have been better off with Lofton, but I'm in the minority on that...

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

Just what the hell did Lofton do to get apparently blacklisted? Without looking up the numbers, I thought he was decent last year. Given that, there's not ONE team in MLB willing to give him a look? Milton "Scrabblebrains" Bradley gets work and not Lofton? I'm missing something...

_________________
Stupidity irritates the crap outta me... and yes, I irritate myself far too often.

I didn't think it was all that weird until JULY passed and he wasn't signed...he's better than his acolyte, Juan Pierre....

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.