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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:48 am 
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What scheme is Nagy supposed to run when his offensive line is getting beat up almost every play all game long?

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:05 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
What scheme is Nagy supposed to run when his offensive line is getting beat up almost every play all game long?


A better one.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:09 am 
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GoldenJet wrote:
The D cant put any pressure on the qb and cant create turnovers. Yet they still held them under 20pts.

This is all on a shitty scheme by Nagy.


Foles refused most of the day to take what was offered to him.

And the few times that he did, he misfired like on their FG drive and when he over threw Miller for the interception.

There were people open, and he was missing them.

He LOVES throwing the home run ball.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:15 am 
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GoldenJet wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
What scheme is Nagy supposed to run when his offensive line is getting beat up almost every play all game long?


A better one.
That doesnt answer the question

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:18 am 
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Seacrest wrote:
He LOVES throwing the home run ball.
Exactly, and like the week before he didn't care how well the player was covered.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:38 am 
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So they have a guy who wont throw the quick hitters and a guy who cant throw the quick hitters?

Unloading the ball in 2.0-2.5 seconds is what it takes to succeed in this league. That means well designed short routes that facilitate run after the catch. That protects the qb and doesnt expose O-line weaknesses. This offense is a clusterfuck.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:42 am 
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They can’t run the ball. Nagy kept trying, but there was nothing there. Our QB’s miss a lot of throws. When they hit the receivers in the hands, the receivers drop too high of a percentage. The receivers also position their bodies poorly or run bad routes such that the DB’s knock the ball away.

I don’t see anything positive with this offense. Graham has been a pleasant surprise I suppose.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:54 am 
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For what it's worth, and I know the Colts aren't some high-octane offense, but they had no problem dropping points on Minny and NYJ after weirdly losing the first game against Jacksonville. Perhaps they were still figuring themselves out that game. They only scored 19 against Chicago, their lowest output of the season.


good dolphin wrote:

special teams didn't help either as it seemed like the Colts started every possession around the 50


Then it's a miracle the D held them to only 19. Story of the past three seasons, save for 2018's version which could actually score and create more TOs.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:58 am 
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Brick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Tall Midget wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Can't complain about 16 points given up in today's NFL.


The Bears have an above average--not elite--defense. You can win with them, but you're not going to win too many because of them.


100 percent agree. That's why I wanted to cut the plug on (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky asap because you still had a decent enough d to win if you had a competent QB.

But you didn't have to cut (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky to do that. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky cost $0 extra this year. He's a free backup to Cam Newton or Tom Brady on the Bears.


Yes but when I mean cut I mean more "cut out of your plans" and not cut in the financial sense. I don't care if Trubinsky costs 0$ or if his presence means the Bears actually get more funds from the league to spend on players - I wanted him out of Pace's vision for the franchise. I didn't want to go into 2020 with him, I wanted a complete reset of the position so you could still work with a decent defense to have a chance at a playoff run.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:06 am 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Yes but when I mean cut I mean more "cut out of your plans" and not cut in the financial sense. I don't care if Trubinsky costs 0$ or if his presence means the Bears actually get more funds from the league to spend on players - I wanted him out of Pace's vision for the franchise. I didn't want to go into 2020 with him, I wanted a complete reset of the position so you could still work with a decent defense to have a chance at a playoff run.
It's pretty clear that Foles was meant to replace (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. The problem is that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is better than Foles.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:09 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:09 am 
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Brick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Yes but when I mean cut I mean more "cut out of your plans" and not cut in the financial sense. I don't care if Trubinsky costs 0$ or if his presence means the Bears actually get more funds from the league to spend on players - I wanted him out of Pace's vision for the franchise. I didn't want to go into 2020 with him, I wanted a complete reset of the position so you could still work with a decent defense to have a chance at a playoff run.
It's pretty clear that Foles was meant to replace (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. The problem is that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is better than Foles.


It was not clear given that the move was framed as competiiton which Trubinsky apparently won. A reset is like what they did in Carolina, where a new QB comes in and the old one is kicked out the door. Trubinsky needed to be kicked out the door. And far.

I'm fine with saying Foles sucks, I didn't support his acquisition, but Trubinsky sucks more.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:11 am 
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Brick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Yes but when I mean cut I mean more "cut out of your plans" and not cut in the financial sense. I don't care if Trubinsky costs 0$ or if his presence means the Bears actually get more funds from the league to spend on players - I wanted him out of Pace's vision for the franchise. I didn't want to go into 2020 with him, I wanted a complete reset of the position so you could still work with a decent defense to have a chance at a playoff run.
It's pretty clear that Foles was meant to replace (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. The problem is that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is better than Foles.


And that they both have Nagy for a head coach.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:17 am 
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veganfan21 wrote:
It was not clear given that the move was framed as competiiton which Trubinsky apparently won. A reset is like what they did in Carolina, where a new QB comes in and the old one is kicked out the door. Trubinsky needed to be kicked out the door. And far.
Your point is that the Bears should be in win now mode. How does it improve things for the Bears to have Nick Foles and Tyler Bray as the backup instead of Nick Foles and Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky as the backup?

veganfan21 wrote:
I'm fine with saying Foles sucks, I didn't support his acquisition, but Trubinsky sucks more.
Why do you believe that Foles is better than (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky? Foles looked just as bad throwing and has no ability to run either. The best chance to get one more good season out of the defense, which is your point, is to immediately put (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky back in and hope for the best.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:20 am 
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Brick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
It was not clear given that the move was framed as competiiton which Trubinsky apparently won. A reset is like what they did in Carolina, where a new QB comes in and the old one is kicked out the door. Trubinsky needed to be kicked out the door. And far.
Your point is that the Bears should be in win now mode. How does it improve things for the Bears to have Nick Foles and Tyler Bray as the backup instead of Nick Foles and Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky as the backup?


Who said I wanted Foles as the replacement?

veganfan21 wrote:
I'm fine with saying Foles sucks, I didn't support his acquisition, but Trubinsky sucks more.
Brick wrote:
Why do you believe that Foles is better than (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky? Foles looked just as bad throwing and has no ability to run either. The best chance to get one more good season out of the defense, which is your point, is to immediately put (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky back in and hope for the best.


Did you see the Bears play last year? I don't believe in blind faith.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:27 am 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Who said I wanted Foles as the replacement?
Nick Foles is who they got. You can replace him with "hypothetical Bears QB" and the question is the same. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky + New Bears QB is better than Bray + New Bears QB if the goal is the best chance to win when this defense is as good as it will be.

veganfan21 wrote:
Did you see the Bears play last year? I don't believe in blind faith.
Did you see Foles play yesterday?

You believe Foles is better than (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. I want to know what you have seen to make you feel that way.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:28 am 
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Speaking of Bray, this from Brad Biggs:

Why was Tyler Bray promoted from the practice squad for the game only to be inactive? The promotion bumped up the sixth-year veteran to the prorated pay of $910,000, meaning he received a $53,529 game check. That’s great work when you can find it. Bray was earning $204,000 on the practice squad, or $12,000 per week, so it’s a bump of more than $41,000. Why promote him to the active roster and then make him inactive when the plan all week was for Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky to be the No. 2 and no quarterbacks appeared on the injury report?

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:43 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:55 am 
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For all the teeth mashing about the game if Mack, Smith, or Patterson hold either hold onto catchable balls or not step out of bounds who knows what happens.

The most concerning thing is that Matt Nagy doesn't seem to have a clue what he is doing. The offense looks the same regardless of who runs it. There seems to be little to know creativity or a running game scheme. In his first year the had a bunch of fun and gimmicky plays drawn up. Now he hands the ball off to a wide receiver in a critical 3rd and 1. He seems to be afraid to lose more than anything else.

The defense seems to be very good still. Mack and Quinn are either a year too old or too banged up for it to be elite. With Nagy's offense though you need it to be elite.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:05 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:08 am 
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Brick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Who said I wanted Foles as the replacement?
Nick Foles is who they got. You can replace him with "hypothetical Bears QB" and the question is the same. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky + New Bears QB is better than Bray + New Bears QB if the goal is the best chance to win when this defense is as good as it will be.

veganfan21 wrote:
Did you see the Bears play last year? I don't believe in blind faith.
Did you see Foles play yesterday?

You believe Foles is better than (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. I want to know what you have seen to make you feel that way.


You continue to assert that retaining Trubinsky somehow gives the Bears a good chance at winning yet have submitted absolutely no evidence whatsoever to back that up. In fact, the horrid performance the offense turned in last year against all important metrics suggests Trubinsky is barely a NFL-level QB, and certainly not one you want to pin your hopes to like you inexplicably do.

Foles has a better track record. I believed that coming in and the numbers prove it. Foles will throw more INTs and is not the same running threat, but he knows how to read defenses, go through his progressions systematically, and hit the open man. This is stuff Nagy famously said Trubinsky - a veteran at this point - needed to "study up" on last offseason. That's a little like defending a car mechanic who still doesn't understand the role of oil in a car engine. You're just not a mechanic.

Here is some more supporting evidence for Foles over Trubinsky:

Quote:



What do the advanced stats of Nick Foles say about the Chicago Bears signing?

Over the past two seasons, we have done an advanced stats review of Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky to dive into his strengths and weaknesses. A lot of the underlying issues found in 2019 were expected from his 2018 deep dive. So, with the Chicago Bears signing Nick Foles, it is a perfect time to dig into those stats for him and look into how they compare to (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky.

Although the sample is small, we are going to look at the last three years of Foles as it is much more recent. With that in mind, how has Foles looked compared to Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky?

Pressure vs. No Pressure
Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky unsurprisingly was worse against pressure than in no-pressure situations. Most quarterbacks are, the question is how big is the drop-off?

For (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky, his completion rate dropped 21.4% going from a clean pocket to under pressure. Foles completion rate dropped just 16.8% when he is under pressure. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky’s yards per attempt goes up 0.1 when under pressure, which seems nice, but Foles saw an even greater rise, with a 0.3 increase. It is true that under pressure can cause fewer completions, but bigger plays off of it.

When looking at touchdown rate, Foles touchdown rate improved under pressure by 0.3%, while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky dropped his TD rate by 0.1% under pressure. However, the trade-off is that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky had a 0.3 INT rate increase under pressure while Foles had a 1.4% INT rate increase. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky does take 3% more sacks than Foles under pressure, but it is fair to note that Foles plays a bit more dangerously under pressure, resulting in bigger plays, but more turnovers.


Blitz vs No Blitz
Pressure can come from anywhere. When a blitz comes, more than four rushers are coming. How a quarterback recognizes a blitz can be vital in getting the ball out before pressure comes. How do the two handle pressure?

(Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky saw a 10.8% decrease in his completion rate against the blitz. Foles saw a decrease, but only 1.8%. This is what a lot of analysts have noted with the Bears liking Foles over (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. Foles gets the ball out quick and on time and can recognize the blitz.

In yards per attempt, Foles also increased his average by 2.4 yards per attempt against the blitz. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky only saw a 0.1 increase. Foles also had a 4% TD rate increase, while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky had just a 0.6% increase.

Beyond that, Foles did not throw a single pick against the blitz. He saw a 3.2% decrease in his interception rate. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky saw a 0.6% increase in his interception rate.

Nick Foles is not very good against pressure, but his work against the blitz is impressive. When he recognizes more than four are coming, he gets the ball out and on schedule. This is clearly what the Bears want from him.

Directional Passing
Left side
Remember when throwing to the left side was an issue for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky? How about this, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 64% completion rate and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt to the left side. Foles has a 61% completion rate and averages 6 yards per attempt. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is better throwing to the left side. That is one of the few areas to his advantage.

Middle
(Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 72% completion rate to the middle of the field with 7.3 yards per attempt. Foles is better, with a 76% completion rate to the middle of the field, and 8 yards per attempt. One thing we noted in the Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson statistical reviews were that these two struggled more in the middle of the field in 2019 than in 2018. Can Foles bring that back?

Right
To the right side, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky completes 64% of his passes, 6.4 yards per attempt. Foles completes 73% and averages 6.8 yards per attempt. Foles is better to the middle and right than (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky, while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky was better throwing left.

10 yards or less
Throwing the ball 10 yards or shorter, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has an 81% completion rate and averages 8.2 yards per attempt. Foles has an 80% completion rate but averages 5.1 yards per attempt. Does the huge difference in yards per attempt compared to the similar completion rate speak to Matt Nagy scheming up quick passes? Could this help with Foles in this area?

10-20 yards
When the distance starts to get further, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky gets less efficient. He is completing just 51% of his passes, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. Foles has a 69% completion rate to this area of the field and 8.6 yards per attempt. Again, this is the area Cohen and Robinson saw a regression in 2019.

20+ yards
This may be the kicker. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 37% completion rate averaging 11.3 yards per deep pass attempt. Foles completes 60% of his passes 20 yards or deeper. One of the issues with Foles is that similar to against the blitz and pressure, more passes get picked off in this area than (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. It seems under pressure and against the blitz is when he tends to throw more 50/50 balls where (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky would take sacks or throw the ball away.

It results in more picks, but certainly more completions, yards, touchdowns, and efficiency.

Time to throw
Nick Foles gets the ball out in 2.68 seconds while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky gets the ball out in 2.64 seconds. This speaks to the Bears wanting to get the ball out quick, and Foles fitting into the type of quarterback they want. For what it is worth Andy Dalton had a 2.51 time to throw last year, which was quickest in the league.

Air Yard Differential
Air yard differential looks into the air yards completed subtracted from the air yards attempted. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a -2.7 air yard differential, Foles has a -2 air yard differential. It is fair to note that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky averages 8.8 air yards per attempt, while Foles is at 6.7 air yards per attempt.

Aggressiveness
Aggressiveness looks at the percent of throws into tight windows. It is good to be aggressive, but not over-aggressive. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has typically been on the more aggressive side. His 17.7 aggressive rate is higher than Foles at 14.9, who is much closer to names such as DeShaun Watson and Russell Wilson.

Expected Completion Rate
Foles also has a +4.9 expected completion rate, meaning he completes more passes than he is expected to. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky completes 1% more passes than expected.

When looking at their completion rate over the past three years head to head, Nick Foles has a 66.6% completion rate while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 63.4% rate.


Touchdown Rate and Interception Rate
Foles has a 3.6% touchdown rate and 2.3% interception rate, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 3.8% touchdown rate and 2.3 interception rate.

Adjusted yards per attempt and QB Rating
Yards per attempt– (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky 6.7, Foles 6.5

Adjusted Y/A – (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky 6.41, Foles 6.36

Net Y/A – (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky 5.83, Foles 5.81

Adjusted Net Y/A – (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky 5.56, Foles, 5.69

Overall
It is tough to come away from the last three years and think that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is better than Foles. They have similar raw numbers, but the biggest discrepancy comes from yards after the catch on passes 10 yards or shorter. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky also throws fewer interceptions.

However, Foles plays on schedule better beats the blitz at a much higher rate, and while he does throw more picks, he also takes more shots, and that pays off more often.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:10 am 
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the bears have no one who can both get separation and catch passes reliably.

They continue to be unable to run block consistently, which I believe is a lack of talent as well.

This is a bad offensive team and they're bad because of the way they're constructed by their GM.

I still like Foles but as I suggested after last week's game, they should have started Mitch and had Foles come save the day again in the second half. It would have worked. Foles CLEARLY can do more offensively than Mitch. Mitch is a gadget QB at best. Extremely poor man's Lamar Jackson on his very best day.

I still think they'll make the playoffs if everyone stays healthy. Very interested in this Atlanta Green Bay game tonight.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:12 am 
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I think they should probably look at more than one game before deciding the proven nothing (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is certainly better than Foles.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:23 am 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
Speaking of Bray, this from Brad Biggs:

Why was Tyler Bray promoted from the practice squad for the game only to be inactive? The promotion bumped up the sixth-year veteran to the prorated pay of $910,000, meaning he received a $53,529 game check. That’s great work when you can find it. Bray was earning $204,000 on the practice squad, or $12,000 per week, so it’s a bump of more than $41,000. Why promote him to the active roster and then make him inactive when the plan all week was for Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky to be the No. 2 and no quarterbacks appeared on the injury report?


If I had to guess, they were worried another team was going to sign Bray or they were entertaining trade offers for Mitch.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:39 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Brick wrote:
veganfan21 wrote:
Who said I wanted Foles as the replacement?
Nick Foles is who they got. You can replace him with "hypothetical Bears QB" and the question is the same. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky + New Bears QB is better than Bray + New Bears QB if the goal is the best chance to win when this defense is as good as it will be.

veganfan21 wrote:
Did you see the Bears play last year? I don't believe in blind faith.
Did you see Foles play yesterday?

You believe Foles is better than (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. I want to know what you have seen to make you feel that way.


You continue to assert that retaining Trubinsky somehow gives the Bears a good chance at winning yet have submitted absolutely no evidence whatsoever to back that up. In fact, the horrid performance the offense turned in last year against all important metrics suggests Trubinsky is barely a NFL-level QB, and certainly not one you want to pin your hopes to like you inexplicably do.

Foles has a better track record. I believed that coming in and the numbers prove it. Foles will throw more INTs and is not the same running threat, but he knows how to read defenses, go through his progressions systematically, and hit the open man. This is stuff Nagy famously said Trubinsky - a veteran at this point - needed to "study up" on last offseason. That's a little like defending a car mechanic who still doesn't understand the role of oil in a car engine. You're just not a mechanic.

Here is some more supporting evidence for Foles over Trubinsky:

Quote:



What do the advanced stats of Nick Foles say about the Chicago Bears signing?

Over the past two seasons, we have done an advanced stats review of Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky to dive into his strengths and weaknesses. A lot of the underlying issues found in 2019 were expected from his 2018 deep dive. So, with the Chicago Bears signing Nick Foles, it is a perfect time to dig into those stats for him and look into how they compare to (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky.

Although the sample is small, we are going to look at the last three years of Foles as it is much more recent. With that in mind, how has Foles looked compared to Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky?

Pressure vs. No Pressure
Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky unsurprisingly was worse against pressure than in no-pressure situations. Most quarterbacks are, the question is how big is the drop-off?

For (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky, his completion rate dropped 21.4% going from a clean pocket to under pressure. Foles completion rate dropped just 16.8% when he is under pressure. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky’s yards per attempt goes up 0.1 when under pressure, which seems nice, but Foles saw an even greater rise, with a 0.3 increase. It is true that under pressure can cause fewer completions, but bigger plays off of it.

When looking at touchdown rate, Foles touchdown rate improved under pressure by 0.3%, while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky dropped his TD rate by 0.1% under pressure. However, the trade-off is that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky had a 0.3 INT rate increase under pressure while Foles had a 1.4% INT rate increase. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky does take 3% more sacks than Foles under pressure, but it is fair to note that Foles plays a bit more dangerously under pressure, resulting in bigger plays, but more turnovers.


Blitz vs No Blitz
Pressure can come from anywhere. When a blitz comes, more than four rushers are coming. How a quarterback recognizes a blitz can be vital in getting the ball out before pressure comes. How do the two handle pressure?

(Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky saw a 10.8% decrease in his completion rate against the blitz. Foles saw a decrease, but only 1.8%. This is what a lot of analysts have noted with the Bears liking Foles over (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. Foles gets the ball out quick and on time and can recognize the blitz.

In yards per attempt, Foles also increased his average by 2.4 yards per attempt against the blitz. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky only saw a 0.1 increase. Foles also had a 4% TD rate increase, while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky had just a 0.6% increase.

Beyond that, Foles did not throw a single pick against the blitz. He saw a 3.2% decrease in his interception rate. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky saw a 0.6% increase in his interception rate.

Nick Foles is not very good against pressure, but his work against the blitz is impressive. When he recognizes more than four are coming, he gets the ball out and on schedule. This is clearly what the Bears want from him.

Directional Passing
Left side
Remember when throwing to the left side was an issue for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky? How about this, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 64% completion rate and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt to the left side. Foles has a 61% completion rate and averages 6 yards per attempt. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is better throwing to the left side. That is one of the few areas to his advantage.

Middle
(Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 72% completion rate to the middle of the field with 7.3 yards per attempt. Foles is better, with a 76% completion rate to the middle of the field, and 8 yards per attempt. One thing we noted in the Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson statistical reviews were that these two struggled more in the middle of the field in 2019 than in 2018. Can Foles bring that back?

Right
To the right side, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky completes 64% of his passes, 6.4 yards per attempt. Foles completes 73% and averages 6.8 yards per attempt. Foles is better to the middle and right than (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky, while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky was better throwing left.

10 yards or less
Throwing the ball 10 yards or shorter, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has an 81% completion rate and averages 8.2 yards per attempt. Foles has an 80% completion rate but averages 5.1 yards per attempt. Does the huge difference in yards per attempt compared to the similar completion rate speak to Matt Nagy scheming up quick passes? Could this help with Foles in this area?

10-20 yards
When the distance starts to get further, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky gets less efficient. He is completing just 51% of his passes, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. Foles has a 69% completion rate to this area of the field and 8.6 yards per attempt. Again, this is the area Cohen and Robinson saw a regression in 2019.

20+ yards
This may be the kicker. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 37% completion rate averaging 11.3 yards per deep pass attempt. Foles completes 60% of his passes 20 yards or deeper. One of the issues with Foles is that similar to against the blitz and pressure, more passes get picked off in this area than (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky. It seems under pressure and against the blitz is when he tends to throw more 50/50 balls where (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky would take sacks or throw the ball away.

It results in more picks, but certainly more completions, yards, touchdowns, and efficiency.

Time to throw
Nick Foles gets the ball out in 2.68 seconds while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky gets the ball out in 2.64 seconds. This speaks to the Bears wanting to get the ball out quick, and Foles fitting into the type of quarterback they want. For what it is worth Andy Dalton had a 2.51 time to throw last year, which was quickest in the league.

Air Yard Differential
Air yard differential looks into the air yards completed subtracted from the air yards attempted. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a -2.7 air yard differential, Foles has a -2 air yard differential. It is fair to note that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky averages 8.8 air yards per attempt, while Foles is at 6.7 air yards per attempt.

Aggressiveness
Aggressiveness looks at the percent of throws into tight windows. It is good to be aggressive, but not over-aggressive. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has typically been on the more aggressive side. His 17.7 aggressive rate is higher than Foles at 14.9, who is much closer to names such as DeShaun Watson and Russell Wilson.

Expected Completion Rate
Foles also has a +4.9 expected completion rate, meaning he completes more passes than he is expected to. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky completes 1% more passes than expected.

When looking at their completion rate over the past three years head to head, Nick Foles has a 66.6% completion rate while (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 63.4% rate.


Touchdown Rate and Interception Rate
Foles has a 3.6% touchdown rate and 2.3% interception rate, (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has a 3.8% touchdown rate and 2.3 interception rate.

Adjusted yards per attempt and QB Rating
Yards per attempt– (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky 6.7, Foles 6.5

Adjusted Y/A – (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky 6.41, Foles 6.36

Net Y/A – (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky 5.83, Foles 5.81

Adjusted Net Y/A – (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky 5.56, Foles, 5.69

Overall
It is tough to come away from the last three years and think that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is better than Foles. They have similar raw numbers, but the biggest discrepancy comes from yards after the catch on passes 10 yards or shorter. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky also throws fewer interceptions.

However, Foles plays on schedule better beats the blitz at a much higher rate, and while he does throw more picks, he also takes more shots, and that pays off more often.

That only compares them as passers and seems to put them pretty close. If that is true then (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is FAR SUPERIOR since he can run.

Foles doesn't have a better track record. Both had one good year. Foles has been bad since.

The major point you seem to completely ignore again and again is that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is better than Bray or whatever backup they would have gotten for Cam or Jameis or Tom Brady and he cost $0 this year in extra money.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:56 pm 
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Bears are undefeated when (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky starts this year. Winless when Foles does. Seems clear to me who should start

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:06 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Bears are undefeated when (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky starts this year. Winless when Foles does. Seems clear to me who should start

Yes....the Packers would definitely prefer Mitch to start.
Foles isn't the answer. That doesn't change the fact that he's a better QB than Mitch. Neither is doing much with the surrounding players and coaching staff currently in place.

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:40 pm 
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Rick, saying one QB knows where to go with the ball while the other one doesn't is not saying they're "pretty close".

What other metric did you want assessed beyond passing? Passing seems to be pretty important for a QB?

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:55 pm 
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veganfan21 wrote:
Rick, saying one QB knows where to go with the ball while the other one doesn't is not saying they're "pretty close".

What other metric did you want assessed beyond passing? Passing seems to be pretty important for a QB?

Read your own article about them being close. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Colts at Bears
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:13 pm 
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Quote:
It is tough to come away from the last three years and think that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is better than Foles.,

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