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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:26 am 
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Saturday Race 4 Fillies and Mares Sprint…in total agreement with JORR about 3-Come Dancing…the 2-Gamine will be a heavy favorite and is tough, having the right sire for this track, but will not be worth the price…7-Serengeti Express will run her race, and be in the money, even against this tough group…

3-2-9-7
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Walt Williams Neck
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:45 am 
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Come Dancing will exactly do that!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:21 pm 
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Serengeti Empress made her work...oh well cheap exacta and moving on

Saturday Race 5 Turf Sprint…huge statistical edge in these types of races at Keeneland for posts 3-4-5, regardless of runners and of those the 3-Impris seems poised to win…together with 7-Leinster and holds the course record at Kee…the 6-Glass Slippers is a Euro that might have more class than anyone else here…deep closer 8-Oleksandra will be flying late, if she doesn’t leave too much work to do…talented 12-Got Stormy has a lot of work to do from that post

7-6-3-8-12
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Walt Williams Neck
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:40 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Serengeti Empress made her work...oh well cheap exacta and moving on

Saturday Race 5 Turf Sprint…huge statistical edge in these types of races at Keeneland for posts 3-4-5, regardless of runners and of those the 3-Impris seems poised to win…together with 7-Leinster and holds the course record at Kee…the 6-Glass Slippers is a Euro that might have more class than anyone else here…deep closer 8-Oleksandra will be flying late, if she doesn’t leave too much work to do…talented 12-Got Stormy has a lot of work to do from that post

7-6-3-8-12


agreed on Imprimis chalks a long day for WWN

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.
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Walt Williams Neck
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:42 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Serengeti Empress made her work...oh well cheap exacta and moving on

Saturday Race 5 Turf Sprint…huge statistical edge in these types of races at Keeneland for posts 3-4-5, regardless of runners and of those the 3-Impris seems poised to win…together with 7-Leinster and holds the course record at Kee…the 6-Glass Slippers is a Euro that might have more class than anyone else here…deep closer 8-Oleksandra will be flying late, if she doesn’t leave too much work to do…talented 12-Got Stormy has a lot of work to do from that post

7-6-3-8-12


agreed on Imprimis chalks a long day for WWN


You sommabitch

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.
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Dignified Rube
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:51 pm 
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Euro-trash.
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:52 pm 
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very nice...used the 3-4-5 underneath and got that exacta...that's a remarkable stat courtesy of the Keeneland database on their website...which is awesome if you like that nerdy kind of stuff

Saturday Race 6 Dirt Mile…while not a fan of the 5-Knicks Go, Rosario may be the lone speed and work out the perfect trip…1-Art Collector, prior to the Preakness was on a 5 race win streak and is fast enough here, has won on the lead and pressing… 9-Mr. Freeze dominated here at Keeneland this year and I’m expecting that trend to continue…the 8-Pirates Punch could really add value to any ticket

9-5-8-1
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Walt Williams Neck
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:19 pm 
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fuck PP.... Owendale

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.
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Walt Williams Neck
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:22 pm 
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Fuck this

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:33 pm 
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so now, in addition to worried about whether horse are juiced up, now they are running on dirt track that is juiced up...good ride by Rosario there


Saturday Race 7 Fillies and Mares Turf…really like the 4-Mean Mary who has won at this distance, has been 1st or 2nd the last 7 races, and most important, might be the lone speed…she’ll get a good ride by Saez and is the strongest win contender in my opinion..if there is a pace up front look to the 10-Civil Union who has faced similarly tough groups and might be the best finisher…Rosario rides…Euro’s will take their place in the WPS results...at least the turf is playing more fairly

4-1-10/6-9
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:17 pm 
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Saturday Race 8 Sprint 11-Diamond Oops is the kind of horse that can run any distance, any surface, Geroux should be able to get whatever ride he needs…the 10-Yaupon should take a lot of money cause there is a lot to like having gone 4 for 4, and the heavy favorite 14 has scratched..he may be the best of the speed, which is dominating today on this souped up track…the7-Whitmore is not in the best form, but is still dangerous…tight turn sprint, big field, you’re going to need a good ride from your jock on this one… I love that CZ’s Rocket is a $40K claim that has amassed over half million dollars in earnings…stuff that dreams are made of

10-11-7-8
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Dignified Rube
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:40 pm 
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These results have been a catastrophe all day. Same as yesterday.

Keeneland is a joke. I'll wait for the Classic. Statistics should matter there.
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:56 pm 
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hit that exacta :D

Saturday Race 9 BC Mile…the one horse that I’ve had on my radar for quite some time is the 13-Factor This who I’ve followed since auction…7 wins in his last 8 races (all but one in graded stakes)…he’ll have to work at trip looking for anything on the front end, but I just love this horse…the 5-Digital Age would be a huge value at 8/1..the 2-Kameko is the largest threat looming from abroad…and the 8-March to the Arch has a pedigree that lovers Keeneland…12-Uni will gain a lot od attention as a girl running with the boys but I don’t like her here…11-Ivar is in great form

13-8-2/5-12-11
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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:02 pm 
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Fuckin' Whitmore knocked me out of everything.

Back at it with Kameko here.

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Dignified Rube
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:03 pm 
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It's terrible for the sport that the only odds favorites that have won today are Nashville and Gamine at the shortest of prices.

Unless you like to just throw money around, you are not betting on Whitmore in that last race at 18-1 with a 5% implied win probability. If you took him, you're not good, you're a fool.

This is about as bad as I've ever seen the results at any track. Total disgrace and I've only bet peanuts.
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:09 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Saturday Race 8 Sprint 11-Diamond Oops is the kind of horse that can run any distance, any surface, Geroux should be able to get whatever ride he needs…the 10-Yaupon should take a lot of money cause there is a lot to like having gone 4 for 4, and the heavy favorite 14 has scratched..he may be the best of the speed, which is dominating today on this souped up track…the7-Whitmore is not in the best form, but is still dangerous…tight turn sprint, big field, you’re going to need a good ride from your jock on this one… I love that CZ’s Rocket is a $40K claim that has amassed over half million dollars in earnings…stuff that dreams are made of

10-11-7-8


guess I'm a fool..with a huge ROI
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Walt Williams Neck
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:15 pm 
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March to the Arch

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.
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Dignified Rube
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:16 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Saturday Race 8 Sprint 11-Diamond Oops is the kind of horse that can run any distance, any surface, Geroux should be able to get whatever ride he needs…the 10-Yaupon should take a lot of money cause there is a lot to like having gone 4 for 4, and the heavy favorite 14 has scratched..he may be the best of the speed, which is dominating today on this souped up track…the7-Whitmore is not in the best form, but is still dangerous…tight turn sprint, big field, you’re going to need a good ride from your jock on this one… I love that CZ’s Rocket is a $40K claim that has amassed over half million dollars in earnings…stuff that dreams are made of

10-11-7-8


guess I'm a fool..with a huge ROI


The horse had the 4th highest winning percentage in the field at only 8.8%, stakes adjusted. His winning final speed estimate from simulation was 1.3%. Ridiculous.

I had CZ Rocket and Firenze Fire to win, the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. Those horses had statistical support.
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:27 pm 
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Saturday Race 10 Distaff…on paper this comes down to the 5-Swiss Skydiver and the 10-Monomoy Girl…Monomoy Girl has 14 races lifetime and won 12 of them including 3 this year for fun...nobody is touching her…I’m actually against Swiss Skydiver thinking she may bounce here off her win in the Preakness. A horse I really like in a boxed exacta is the 8-Valiance who won the Spinster on this course and at this distance

10/8
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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:37 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Saturday Race 10 Distaff…on paper this comes down to the 5-Swiss Skydiver and the 10-Monomoy Girl…Monomoy Girl has 14 races lifetime and won 12 of them including 3 this year for fun...nobody is touching her…I’m actually against Swiss Skydiver thinking she may bounce here off her win in the Preakness. A horse I really like in a boxed exacta is the 8-Valiance who won the Spinster on this course and at this distance

10/8



I'm against both of them here. I really dislike Swiss Skydiver in this spot and I think Monomoy Girl is more vulnerable than she appears. I'm hoping to get some horizontals started with Valience, Point of Honor, or Ollie's Candy.

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Dignified Rube
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:39 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Saturday Race 8 Sprint 11-Diamond Oops is the kind of horse that can run any distance, any surface, Geroux should be able to get whatever ride he needs…the 10-Yaupon should take a lot of money cause there is a lot to like having gone 4 for 4, and the heavy favorite 14 has scratched..he may be the best of the speed, which is dominating today on this souped up track…the7-Whitmore is not in the best form, but is still dangerous…tight turn sprint, big field, you’re going to need a good ride from your jock on this one… I love that CZ’s Rocket is a $40K claim that has amassed over half million dollars in earnings…stuff that dreams are made of

10-11-7-8


guess I'm a fool..with a huge ROI


Whitmore wasn't in the 3rd, 4th or 5th post. How did you pick him then, champ?

Astrology? Oprah?
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Walt Williams Neck
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:58 pm 
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I always give credit were credit is due OTE bravo.......I knew right away the way I handicap it's not my day

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:23 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Saturday Race 10 Distaff…on paper this comes down to the 5-Swiss Skydiver and the 10-Monomoy Girl…Monomoy Girl has 14 races lifetime and won 12 of them including 3 this year for fun...nobody is touching her…I’m actually against Swiss Skydiver thinking she may bounce here off her win in the Preakness. A horse I really like in a boxed exacta is the 8-Valiance who won the Spinster on this course and at this distance

10/8



Dignified Rube wrote:

Astrology? Oprah?


Thanks, Oprah!

Actually wanted to do a cold exacta but backed off...

Rube, what is your problem with me. I'm not redboarding this shit...the statistic about the 3-4-5 hole in sprints at Kee is real...I never said that they were a lock to win, rather they score at huge odds historically which is why i put them underneath in Race 5 and won over $400...that has nothing to do with Whitmore scoring a big upset...he knocked me out of the p5. But this isn't Tuesday at Parx where the favorites win all the time. And that's why I love it.

Good luck the rest of the way
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:25 pm 
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Saturday Race 11 BC Turf…Historically a chalky event that has been dominated by Euro invaders…American horses have only won 5 of 21 iterations of this contest, and only once in the last 5 years…9-Channel Maker should be the lone speed, and has won his last two G1 Marathons…1-Arklow is a 6 year old who might be in the best form of his career…the 6-Tarwana might be the best closer of the group and has won 2/3 from this grueling distance…2-Magical is another Euro that is also in the prime of her career…the 7-United has finished 1st or 2nd over his last 8 races, although mostly G2 events, could be a hefty price underneath (that is if JORR doesn’t drop a bitcoin on him)

9-1-6/2-7
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:41 pm 
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OscarTangoEcho wrote:
Saturday Race 11 BC Turf…Historically a chalky event that has been dominated by Euro invaders…American horses have only won 5 of 21 iterations of this contest, and only once in the last 5 years…9-Channel Maker 3rd should be the lone speed, and has won his last two G1 Marathons…1-Arklow is a 6 year old who might be in the best form of his career…the 6-Tarwana might be the best closer of the group and has won 2/3 from this grueling distance (1st, and she was)…2-Magical is another Euro that is also in the prime of her career (2nd) …the 7-United has finished 1st or 2nd over his last 8 races, although mostly G2 events, could be a hefty price underneath (that is if JORR doesn’t drop a bitcoin on him)

9-1-6/2-7
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OscarTangoEcho
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:57 pm 
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Rube I agree with you about Global Campaign, seeing him and Tiz going down to the wire with Authentic, although at 2-1 Tiz the Law is a bit of an underlay..alive to 7 horses in the P3, most of them paltry

2-9-10-7
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Walt Williams Neck
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:04 pm 
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I;m putting myself out of my misery Tom's d'Etat :roll:

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.
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Rod
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:05 pm 
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I really hate to do this, but I can't watch Maximum Security go at 4/1 or higher.

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I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
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Dignified Rube
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:34 pm 
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Global Campaign runs the race of his life!

But I had him win and place. And then he busts my tri-fecta, because I had stinking Tiz the Law in there instead of Global Campaign.

Could not be more frustrating.


Last edited by Dignified Rube on Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:03 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Walt Williams Neck
 Post subject: Re: Breeders Cup 2020
PostPosted: Sat Nov 07, 2020 5:34 pm 
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dead last a perfect ending to a dreadful day :lol:

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.
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