By the way, what the fuck does this mean. He had a 1% chance of winning? Where do you get these numbers?

DR thinks his little system is fool proof so don’t take it too personally, OTE. You’re a good guy.

This dude is like a network edefutive

Fuck Bob Baffert!

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

A guy I was sitting with in the Gold Room made a $30,000 score yesterday off a $450 punch. He bet a $30 Pick-3 ALL-Monomoy Girl-Tarnawa and caught that 73/1 shot in the opening leg.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

It was less than a 5% total chance of winning for Whitmore. The win probability calculation comes from a simulation of speed figures (SPD + E1, E2 and LP) against those of the other horses and historical winning percentage, adjusted for stakes. I simulate the race 1000x times using BRIS speed figures with Monte Carlo simulation and exponential smoothing. The 1.3% winning final speed probability came from the simulation.

The person that helped me write the program is a former graduate professor of business statistics at Indiana U. and MIT grad in mathematics. He wrote the exponential smoothing part that I incorporated into the Monte Carlo simulation.

OK, was just curious. We all have different approaches that we feel confident using.