The next 3 weekends feature the Lecomte (FG), Smarty Jones at Oaklawn and Holy Bull (Gulf) and the Lewis (SA), and hopefully the start of a normal triple crown cycle.

Fairgrounds Race 13 the Lecomte (G3)

Personally, I see this race as having a pace meltdown…most of the money will land on either the 1-Midnight Bourbon and the 10-Mandalaun…both are deserving, and though neither has gone two turns, the distance shouldn’t be an issue…if horses that are cross entered in this race bail for others it will affect the pace…but if they don’t…I really see it being crazy fast on the front end which would aid the efforts of both the 2-Arabian Prince a well bred as well as the 6-Game Day Play, and both would be a huge price. the 4 is an awesome breed Tapit/Panty Raid, with great connections, and deserves a look as well great connections

2-10-4-1-6

turf was yielding today, but up graded to good midway through the day and will probably be fast by tomorrow.

Committed should finally break his maiden in the 7th.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

The chase for the Triple Crown continues with the Withers at Aqueduct and the Sam Davis at Tampa. I’ve chosen to focus on the race at Tampa that should be a good betting

Early on I thought I was onto something special with the 9-Candy Man Rocket, but starting to think a lot of people will be on that bandwagon the 10-Riccochet loves it here at Tampa…could hit the board at a huge price…the 1-Hidden Stash will have to work a trip from the rail, but fits off recent CD run…trainer is o-fer at Graded level though…11-Lucky Law could transfer his runs on the grass here, also at huge price…but I think the 3-Known Agenda will ultimately be too tough and not at a big price…

3-10-11-1-9

The Big race for Deby points is the Risen Star today at Fairgounds in New Orleans. I like a couple of horses that ran in the Lecomte race recently. 11-Mandaloun finished 3rd in that race…he is trained by Brad Cox should garner a lot of the money, but he’s got a tough post…the 6-Midnight Bourbon is the most experienced of the group, he finished 1st in that last race and should be able to control the tempo from the front end…but I like the 2-Proxy who finished between the two above and will be on the engine with the 6…he had a really nice workout since that last one as well…lots of other horses to consider…the 5-Senor Buscador is getting a lot of hype but it’s a big step up for him…both of Amoss’s horses are well placed (the 4-Carillo and 9-Defeater) and the 12-Keepmeinmind who will loom from the outside…very good betting race…Laissez les bons temps rouler

2-6/12-11-4

I'm going to be making a decision as late as possible between Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon.

I'm VERY high on Petruchio in the El Camino Real. I hope I can get at least his morning line.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

There is not a lot of late speed in the Risen Star, so I will take Senor Buscador and Keep Me In Mind.

Run Classic is a nice horse at the FG in the 4th.

I had 2,6/2,4,6,11. I should have just boxed 2-6-11

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Unfortunately, tepid offerings for the chase to the crown this week...the Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream) is often an early signal as to who might jump out on the trail...but not this year...although 4-Fire at Will would be a value at 7/2 (ml)...and in the in the Southwest (Oaklawn) it should be a match race between the 1 and 4

BTW



and

Greatest Honor to win Florida and Kentucky Derbys after yesterday's Fountain of Youth.

I was more impressed by Cox's horse. Off the long layoff, in the mud. I know Shug's guy is talented or he wouldn't have him on the Derby Trail, but Essential Quality seems to have a better style for the Derby. You want to have the lead at the eighth pole.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Crowded Trade in the Gotham. It's either him or Baffert's Freedom Fighter. Baffert wouldn't have shipped him this far unless he felt very good about his horse. Crowded Trade had a +100 LP (87% dominance versus the field in sim.) in his maiden win at 6f at Aqueduct in late Jan. The Gotham is 1 mile, which should suit him nicely.

This week features three big points races for the Kentucky Derby. The Gotham has several California horses being shipped in because they feel the competition is too tough out west.

San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita…most of this field will probably end up in the Derby (5 of 7 maybe?) which has caused an exodus to the east to avoid the competition…Doug O’Neil runs the 5-The Great One who has been tested over a young career and is bred to run long…Baffert’s runners (1-Life is Good and 3-Medina Spirit) will be live and soaking up money and the 1-Life is Good, the m/l favorite at 4/5, could just run them off their feet…the 2-Dream Shake could end up at a good price and the barn (Peter Eurton) is hot.

1/5-3-2

Tampa Bay Derby…3-Candy Man Rocket has had a nice stretch (see above) and could be a dominant horse moving forward. But here he has found some rather salty company…Pletcher brings two including the 11-Promise Keeper who should be on the engine (and a much higher priced and better value the 9-Unbridled Honor)…the 8-Hidden Stash will have no problem with the distance and is a quality horse, but the trainer seems to choke at this level…but here is the one to watch…the 4-King of Dreams whose last race was tremendous at Gulfstream…the same connections won this very race last year with King Guillermo…will be completely forgotten but gets one of the colony’s best jock…

3-4-9-8

Have not looked into the Gotham.

I'm against Life is Good in the San Felipe.

I will probably bet Super Strong at Tampa.

One of the Brown horses will probably win the Gotham.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

That's a tough fucking beat. If I could have bet more at the 1/8 pole I would have mortgaged my house. Not too often one comes back on a Brown horse after being passed.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

That SA G1 Kilroe Mile was a pretty impressive race.

Gotham winner Weyburn impressed my ...because I had him

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Well, thanks for the thought 4 hours later MF'er

Unbelievable finish.

Nice call on Crowded Trade, Rube...that was a bad beat

Both jockies did their best.

I just remember why I don't come around here much

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

The Rebel a compadre is down there and is droolin over Concert Tour the 7th at Gulfstream Sensible Jim Hope the pick's are early enough for Rube who is probably on his 822th system

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I'm looking at Green Light Go in the Essex.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

The Rebel at Oaklawn…the 1-Caddo River has the rail and experience going to turns, plus owns a win on this track…Baffert has won 6 out of the last 11 Rebel’s and he sends in two, most notably the 7-Concert Tour who should vie for the money with the 1…it will be a interesting to see how he does with the distance…but I think the pace is going to be hot and sets up very nicely for the 6-Keepmeinmind who is the only true closer of the group…small field but a chance to make some money

6-7/1-2-8

Tyler Gaffalione is going to be racking up some wins today at Gulfstream with the other jocks elsewhere...already has 3

Saturday at Fairgrounds in New Orleans has a great card lined up for the Louisiana Derby Day. The trail has been a bit boring this year, but this is a race that will feature several that will be appearing in the Kentucky Derby, most notably Cox’s 6-Mandaloun who has raced but 4 times and won 3 of them, getting faster in each…one of my personal favorites in this run has been the 4-Proxy who is absolutely bred to get these distances, and has showed a penchant for battling tough down the stretch…I think his trainer Mike Stidham is an underrated, and the additions of blinkers could help this guy get the job done over his rivals, especially since they are running farther as a group and his breeding suggests he’ll like it……the 3-Run Classic has only 2 races in his career but trainer Calhoun picks his spots well winning 22% in Graded Stakes company…if the 7-Midnight Bourbon holds at 5/1 he would be a great value, hard working horse that fits in with the rest here…he’ll be a big part of the early speed….I think the pace will be brisk and I’m going to go with the upset win of the 3 closing on increasingly fast fractions

3-6-4-7

Race 13 The Oaks...I really think that the combination of a bad trip last out and a huge, I mean huge, rider upgrade (not good>HOF) and the odds, sets the 3-Souper Sensational apart at a sensational price.

Race 10…huge fan of the 12-Catch a Bid, from the auction blocks on…sneaky good from the outside…and if Jose Ortiz puts the 10-Winning Envelope into the race early, he’ll pay off big in the exotics

Also in race 4, my girl, 8-Fate Factor could get a nice trip here and score at 9/2 or better

I won't be going against Mandaloun. He's a single for me today. Probably too short for a win bet.

I agree that Souper Sensational has a good shot at a big price. I've been waiting for Casse to take Carroll off after the last two races and today she gets Johnny V.

I don't particularly like the way she plots in this race, but I can ignore that due to the legit excuses she's had as well as how lightly raced these horses are and how they are slowly stretching out.



She fits on the figs and her last race is a complete toss out.



Another live longshot I'm interested in is the 11 horse in the 8th race, Bootsie's Galaxy.



His last was better than it looked and he had a strong gallop out. His figs are in line with what it should take to win this race provided No Parole doesn't just run off the screen, which is a real possibility. Bootsie's will be coming from the back in a big field at a short distance so I need to get the right price to fire here, but I think there's a good chance of that.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

a couple of scratches in Race 12 means some better chances for two nice priced runners...the 7-Two Emmys (got 'em ) and the 8-Spooky Channel

Doing well, looking to finish strong.

nope

Race 10…huge fan of the 12-Catch a Bid, (nope) from the auction blocks on…sneaky good from the outside…and if Jose Ortiz puts the 10-Winning Envelope into the race early, he’ll pay off big in the exotics (3rd $8.60 )

Also in race 4, my girl, 8-Fate Factor could get a nice trip here and score at 9/2 or better[/quote] (2nd 5.60, 3.40)