Not saying anybody here specifically does this, but I think there’s a tendency within the fan base to deem a pick successful if the guy ends up starting.

Have a scroll through the past 6 drafts:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... /draft.htm

How many of these guys have been integral to the Bears “success” during Pace’s tenure?

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2020
Kmet
Johnson
Mooney

2019
Montgomery

2018
Roquan
Daniels
Miller
Wims

2017
(Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky
Jackson
Cohen

2016
Floyd (different team)
Whitehair
Kwiatkoski
Howard
Bush

2015
Goldman
Grasu (different team)
Amos

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Might be able to say this about Mitch soon as well!

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Any pick after the 1st round that becomes a starter should probably be viewed as a successful pick.

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Adam Shaheen is a successful pick then huh?

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Shaheen has never started more than 8 games in a season, so, no.

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What if they’re only starting because the rest of the roster blows?

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Idk. I'm sure there's cases where you can argue otherwise but I think it's a good rule of thumb. It's hard to find a starter in the draft. It's usually considered a good draft if you can find 2-3.

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Oh, so now its a starter for more than half a season. Any other goalposts you want to move, Favretimeguy?

I agree with your overall premise, but sometimes a complete shitbag player may start 10-12 games on a bad team due to injury(ies). That doesn't necessarily make him a good draft pick IMO.

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The Bears were 28-20 the last 3 years. There has to be some reason the Bears have at least been a good team over that time period. We know the bad moves by Pace, and there are a lot. What saved him? Is it truly the Mack trade?

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Aside from QB, he seems to be competent in the FA market.

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There has to be some reason that the Bears are 42-54 and have not won a playoff game under Pace.

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I used the last 3 years because the Bears have clearly improved from when he took over. What is the reason for this improvement? It takes a while for a GM to turnover a bad roster so it isn't out of the question to lessen the blame at the start. The hiring of Nagy is an easy time to divide the Bears from "New GM rebuild" to "let's win" though it's fair to point out that they weren't good for the 3 years of the first coach.

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The Mack trade may ultimately be his worst decision. Mack has been stealing since his first season and it appears that he can't be dominant without being "healthy".

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The record, overall, is an improvement. But when you really break it down, it was the first 10 weeks or so 2018 that has been different. There were a couple really lean years under Pace/Fox, but overall they have been mediocre. Outside of a few games with Nagy, its basically been the same thing. Good defense, middle of the road at best offense.

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I thought it was a given "becomes a starter" means becomes a full time starter, not spot starts a few times a year

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You can't really hold the whole league to the same standard as Pace( who absolutely needed a QB, was in the best position to get one and got one)

You can't give Pace a tie either on Watson, it is a huge loss.

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You used 3 years because one season skews the data. There has to be some reason they haven’t been a good team the last 2 seasons.

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I'm pretty disappointed in Mack.

The classic sample size argument.

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Sample size is undefeated in such arguments. Not a bad way to go

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He does his job, they overpaid and whiffed on Quinn and Floyd.

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and the arrow is pointing down. The team is getting worse, not better. "making the playoffs last season" is a joke. They're not good...it's fairly obvious from simply watching the games.

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The Bears have not been a good team over the past three years. They were very good in 2018 and mediocre in 2019 and 2020.

Again, a GM who fields one winning team in six seasons is not a success.

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Exactly. There are no foundational players on this team. Not one player can be considered elite at his position. The Pace regime has no long-term vision for building the roster.

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Mack was scary good the first season with the Bears but he's no longer a game changer, and if the defense is just ok, the team won't be any good. Vegas has the Bears over/under on wins at 7 games.

The two best players on the defense, Mack and Hicks, are 30 and 31 respectively.

There aren't any rising dominant players emerging behind them.

The Bears are getting worse, not better.

As a result, my guess is that Pace will try to save his job by trading up in the draft and selecting a quarterback in the first round.

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During Mack's first season with the Bears he was using a pretty devastating inside power rush regularly to keep OT's off balance. He rarely has done that the past few years, not sure why, but he mostly uses outside speed rushes which creates a longer path to the QB.

Teams regularly skewer the Bears with bootleg plays because the OLB's almost always come upfield and lose contain opening up easy lanes for the QB. The Rams did this repeatedly last to them to the point you really wondered if it was scheme or if the OLB's are just making business decisions, hunting sacks/pressures while eschewing the more mundane/physically challenging/team oriented assignment of setting the edge.

Would expect this type of play to be much worse under a young/unproven DC.

I think Roquan Smith has shown himself to be dominant and is only three years in the league.

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