Which is why it makes sense to just get your best hitters the most at-bats.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Yeah, it's hard to imagine that a lineup ranked by descending OPS would score the same as one ordered by ascending OPS. But maybe it's one of those mathematical fallacies we just assume to be true. Or maybe it's true but statistically insignificant (let's say 2.70 runs a game vs 2.68 runs in that extreme example).

_________________

Let's quit fucking around. How many more PAs does a lead off get than the #3? Then how many more men are on base for the #3 as opposed to the leadoff? How many times does the leadoff come up in the 9th and the #3 does not? I think on the last question you're talking about a handful of times vs a guaranteed 162 PAs throughout the year with no one on.

If you are going to convince the world that Babe Ruth should have lead off every game, you got to have the data to back it up. One of the reasons for the 1st inning 1,2,3 "construction" is they ALL get a 1st inning AB. It's also the reason TB had the idea of an "opener". Because of that construction.

5 PAs don't win games. 3 run homers win games.

It's funny that you say that. I played in a fantasy league using retired/dead guys that created a simulation. I drafted Ruth. When I allowed the computer to set the batting order it invariably batted him leadoff.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

I'm convinced!

Here is The White Sox lineup tonight
Seby Zavala C
Jose Abreu 1B
Andrew Vaughn DH
Danny Mendick 2B
Tim Anderson SS
Jake Burger 3B
Luis Robert CF
Eloy Jimenez LF
Gavin Sheets RF

Who's gonna be all time runner for Mendick?

_________________

Who cares. He needs the extra AB. .786 OPS. And that's all there is to it.

LaRussa thinks he's smarter than the numbers and he's in the Hall of Fame. I can't blame you for thinking you're smarter than the numbers too.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Jorr, you disagree with everybody on baseball topics. I mean everyone. You always got those contrarian views. It's awesome.

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

My favorite is when he jumps in the basketball threads to share his strange views.

It is pretty amazing that of all the core guys the Cubs had that Schwarber is doing the best.

I still have my Schwarber Cubs jersey. I miss him.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

So when will you give me the numbers? All I've been told is to construct the lineup through OPS because of PAs. I give zero shits about 4-9. Go OPS all day with those fuckers. Because everything after the 1st inning is random. 75% of the 1-3 construction is the 1st inning. The other 25% is something we can debate. But I believe you are making that random 25% molehill into a mountain. Now go figure out how many times the leadoff guy comes up in the 9th inning and the #3 doesn't vs the guaranteed 162 times the lead off man comes up in the 1st inning and the #3 guaranteed to hit. They are both one inning, right?

It's about 30 plate appearances in a season. For a guy like Schwarber that's probably two more homers.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Well I think the point is that if the high obp guys are 1 and 2 and he's 3rd he's more likely to hit more 2 and 3 run Homer's vs maybe getting 2 more home runs which are more likely to be solo shots.

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

I don't know why they would be "more likely to be solo shots." Regardless, Schwarber gets on base a lot himself. I'm sure Bryce Harper or Rhys Hoskins can drive him in.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

More likely to be solo shots because a minimum of 1 of his 3 or 4 at bats would be leading off. But whatever man this is a weirdo thought experiment so it's really pointless anyway.

_________________
"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

Ah, but no stats on the leadoff AND NO #3 coming up in the 9th? It's an inning just like the 1st is an inning. So its comparable.

The 9th is random. The 1st isn't. That is the main reason for a 1-3 lineup construction. Please consider the 9 leadoff home runs if instead they were 9 home runs from the 3rd spot. It kinda overwhelms the extra 30 PAs. Unless of course you take the random stance that he wouldn't hit those in the 3 spot and that nobody would be on. Then you're right.

Regardless, Schwarber can walk at the 3 spot.

My stance is I want my best hitter to get the most at-bats. I want my second best hitter to get the second most at-bats. And so on.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

My stance is run producing is real.

Not by you. Maybe someone else can.

No, not be me. By countless simulations.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Simulations are models. Like climate change simulations. It spits out what you put in. When did you turn into Computer Boy? I've even granted that lineup construction is debatable AFTER the 1st inning. Ill grant you 30 extra PAs is something. But it isn't everything. There is a nuance that algorithms won't pick up. Babe Ruth strolling up to the plate to lead off the first inning is dumb. Not counterintuitive. Not "all this time I thought tradition was correct but it's really not". Dumb, is what it is.

I'm gonna say it's pretty smart to start 48% of your games with a guy getting on base and about every fourth game or so with a homer.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Or third AB of the game. IMO, odds are it will be more rewarding.

The current Phillies roster shows Bryce Harper has the highest OBP and OPS. He should be leading off with Schwarber batting 3rd

_________________

When Frank Thomas batted leadoff he went 1-1 with a homer and a walk.

He might have hit 800 bombs if he didn't bat 3rd or 4th.

_________________

He's hurt though.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

My third favorite Cubs player of all time behind Baez and Kerry Wood.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

No Shawon Dunston?

_________________
You know me like that.

I liked the meter out in right. My favorite black Cubs player would have to be Andre Dawson. There’s someone who took less (blank check in fact) to play here. Dunston was fine, but I do not recall his personalty coming out much through the media.

I wish I could have seen Fergie play in person.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You