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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:41 am 
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Nas wrote:
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I dunno about that. The Phillies had the fewest wins of any playoff team. They've played 11 post season games so far.

Of those 11 post season games, 9 of them have been started by their top three starting pitchers: Wheeler, Nola, and Suarez. They've knocked off two "rested" division winners in the process.


What don't you know? Playing at home isn't an advantage? Being rested isn't an advantage? Being able to set your rotation isn't an advantage? Playing fewer series isn't an advantage? If none of these things are advantageous to the best regular season teams, what would be?


I'm just saying that the narrative that a team is burning their top pitchers in the wild card round and is behind the eight ball when they make it to the NLDS or beyond has clearly been proven not to be the case with Philly.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:45 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
vitoscotti wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

I don't know if you believe Joe Maddon is a "good" or a "bad" manager, but this excerpt gets into the way baseball culture has changed.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/10/06/joe-m ... ok-excerpt

Maddon is a rare baseball manager who openly expresses how he feels about the game in depth. Grandpa Ross and his ilk just yap out scripted platitudes. But Maddon is the master BS-er constantly wanting the spotlight and to put himself in a good light. When his Cubs decisions were questioned by fans he said the intricacies were over fans scope of knowledge to fathom. In the SI article book excerpt he now says fans NEED to know how the hot dog is made behind the scenes in MLB when he doesn't have one managers job nibble. The guys always an interesting read how he puts his baseball expertise on a pedestal.


I'm not a Maddon fan. And for the millionth time, I prder not to talk about managers. But Maddon does the make point that managers does have a particular expertise in the way they interact with the players on their teams.

And that's where a manager can make a difference. I just wouldn't call them "good" or "bad." They're like wives or girlfriends. What's a good wife to you, may be a bad wife to me. And vice versa. The thing is, you don't really know until you're in the marriage. That's why it's dumb to get all worked up over who is being hired.

Also, there is the matter of the manager taking the heat for decisions he isn't making. You have fans screaming at you because you brought in Bennett Sousa instead of Kendall Graveman, but the front office ordered you not to use Graveman today. So the fans don't know shit.


I'm probably butchering this, but for what it's worth Bill James does believe there are good managers. He breaks managing down into 33% in game managing 33% pre-game managing (setting lineup, etc.) and (c) 33% unknown. It's the first two that are pretty easy to recognize a weakness or strength, but the last one is almost impossible to measure, but it's likely there.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:46 am 
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Nardi wrote:
Go ahead and keep pitching to Harper in key situations.

Is that "good" or "bad" managing?

I would suggest it's bad.

So they shouldve walked him yesterday and put the tying run in scoring position ?

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2022 10:06 am 
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Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
I think a parent is a better analogy. A good parent understands that all of their kids are different. There is fairness, but everything isn't equal. They are attentive to the needs of all of their kids. They can effectively communicate the same message in a variety of ways.


But what you're describing should then work all the time. How can Girardi be a "good" manager for Team A but a "bad" one for Team B?


It usually does for the great ones. For others, the game passes them by, and they are unable to adjust. The truly great managers/coaches are able to evolve with the game for a long period of time.



I would argue that certain managers just fit certain teams. The problem being that you don't know whether they fit until they're actually in the situation.

If you would have said a year ago that the choice between managers was Robby Thomson and Joe Girardi, anyone who preferred Thomson would have been ridiculed. It's easy to look at a team of players performing well and say a guy who sits on the bench as it happens is a great mananger. It's a little harder to decide Robby Thomson is "better" than Joe Girardi before it does. And nobody here would have suggested that he was. That being the case, I don't really see the point in spending so much time fretting about the manager.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2022 10:19 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nas wrote:
I think a parent is a better analogy. A good parent understands that all of their kids are different. There is fairness, but everything isn't equal. They are attentive to the needs of all of their kids. They can effectively communicate the same message in a variety of ways.


But what you're describing should then work all the time. How can Girardi be a "good" manager for Team A but a "bad" one for Team B?


It usually does for the great ones. For others, the game passes them by, and they are unable to adjust. The truly great managers/coaches are able to evolve with the game for a long period of time.



I would argue that certain managers just fit certain teams. The problem being that you don't know whether they fit until they're actually in the situation.

If you would have said a year ago that the choice between managers was Robby Thomson and Joe Girardi, anyone who preferred Thomson would have been ridiculed. It's easy to look at a team of players performing well and say a guy who sits on the bench as it happens is a great mananger. It's a little harder to decide Robby Thomson is "better" than Joe Girardi before it does. And nobody here would have suggested that he was. That being the case, I don't really see the point in spending so much time fretting about the manager.


I wouldn't disagree with that. Some managers catch lightning in a bottle, and others may fit a particular group. I wouldn't call most of those guys great. We've seen the great managers like TLR and Bochy be able to win at every stop.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2022 10:36 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Go ahead and keep pitching to Harper in key situations.

Is that "good" or "bad" managing?

I would suggest it's bad.



I don't know. Is the pitcher's job to limit baserunners? If it is, why would you put anyone on on purpose?

He's slugging .900 and his OPS is 1.35 and he's swinging like pumpkins are coming. There's a 55% chance you can get him out. But if you don't K him, it's down to 50%. He fucking Barry Bonds out there right now. I'll take the 1st and 2nd and nobody out. You take the 50/50.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2022 8:12 pm 
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If they are pitching to him, why didn't they have Hader in the game at that point?

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2022 9:32 pm 
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One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
vitoscotti wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

I don't know if you believe Joe Maddon is a "good" or a "bad" manager, but this excerpt gets into the way baseball culture has changed.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/10/06/joe-m ... ok-excerpt

Maddon is a rare baseball manager who openly expresses how he feels about the game in depth. Grandpa Ross and his ilk just yap out scripted platitudes. But Maddon is the master BS-er constantly wanting the spotlight and to put himself in a good light. When his Cubs decisions were questioned by fans he said the intricacies were over fans scope of knowledge to fathom. In the SI article book excerpt he now says fans NEED to know how the hot dog is made behind the scenes in MLB when he doesn't have one managers job nibble. The guys always an interesting read how he puts his baseball expertise on a pedestal.


I'm not a Maddon fan. And for the millionth time, I prder not to talk about managers. But Maddon does the make point that managers does have a particular expertise in the way they interact with the players on their teams.

And that's where a manager can make a difference. I just wouldn't call them "good" or "bad." They're like wives or girlfriends. What's a good wife to you, may be a bad wife to me. And vice versa. The thing is, you don't really know until you're in the marriage. That's why it's dumb to get all worked up over who is being hired.

Also, there is the matter of the manager taking the heat for decisions he isn't making. You have fans screaming at you because you brought in Bennett Sousa instead of Kendall Graveman, but the front office ordered you not to use Graveman today. So the fans don't know shit.


I'm probably butchering this, but for what it's worth Bill James does believe there are good managers. He breaks managing down into 33% in game managing 33% pre-game managing (setting lineup, etc.) and (c) 33% unknown. It's the first two that are pretty easy to recognize a weakness or strength, but the last one is almost impossible to measure, but it's likely there.

I wonder what he'd say now since so many managers (apparently) have many decisions made for them by the GMs.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2022 1:01 am 
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Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
If they are pitching to him, why didn't they have Hader in the game at that point?



Saving Hader for Game Six.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2022 6:32 am 
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Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Go ahead and keep pitching to Harper in key situations.

Is that "good" or "bad" managing?

I would suggest it's bad.



I don't know. Is the pitcher's job to limit baserunners? If it is, why would you put anyone on on purpose?

He's slugging .900 and his OPS is 1.35 and he's swinging like pumpkins are coming. There's a 55% chance you can get him out. But if you don't K him, it's down to 50%. He fucking Barry Bonds out there right now. I'll take the 1st and 2nd and nobody out. You take the 50/50.



I'm not sure what the right decision is there. I don't think I'd intentionally walk anyone except in the rarest circumstance and that wasn't it.

But the larger conversation to me is how much modern statistical analysis has confused the fan. It's become conventional wisdom that "a pitcher's job is to limit baserunners." As you know, I don't think that's a pitcher's job. But if you do believe that's the pitcher's job- I'm not saying you do, though you have mocked my contention that a starter's primary job is making sure his team scores first- how could you ever support putting a man on base on purpose?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:46 am 
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Hussra wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
If they are pitching to him, why didn't they have Hader in the game at that point?



Saving Hader for Game Six.

No shit - they coveted Hader for years - traded away the farm for him only to leave him in the bullpen when he could have been getting the very out he was traded for to get.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:16 am 
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Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Hussra wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
If they are pitching to him, why didn't they have Hader in the game at that point?



Saving Hader for Game Six.

No shit - they coveted Hader for years - traded away the farm for him only to leave him in the bullpen when he could have been getting the very out he was traded for to get.

You are the only person I have seen say they traded away the farm for Hader, there is not one Brewers fan that feels that way.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:29 am 
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Hawg Ass wrote:
Hawkeye Vince wrote:
Hussra wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
If they are pitching to him, why didn't they have Hader in the game at that point?



Saving Hader for Game Six.

No shit - they coveted Hader for years - traded away the farm for him only to leave him in the bullpen when he could have been getting the very out he was traded for to get.

You are the only person I have seen say they traded away the farm for Hader, there is not one Brewers fan that feels that way.

Maybe an overstatement, but Ruiz and Gasser looks to be solid prospects to build around. Ruiz has shown steady progress and is likely ready to be playing every day.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:37 am 
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Thomas-Sox-WorldSeries wrote:
One Post wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
vitoscotti wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

I don't know if you believe Joe Maddon is a "good" or a "bad" manager, but this excerpt gets into the way baseball culture has changed.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/10/06/joe-m ... ok-excerpt

Maddon is a rare baseball manager who openly expresses how he feels about the game in depth. Grandpa Ross and his ilk just yap out scripted platitudes. But Maddon is the master BS-er constantly wanting the spotlight and to put himself in a good light. When his Cubs decisions were questioned by fans he said the intricacies were over fans scope of knowledge to fathom. In the SI article book excerpt he now says fans NEED to know how the hot dog is made behind the scenes in MLB when he doesn't have one managers job nibble. The guys always an interesting read how he puts his baseball expertise on a pedestal.


I'm not a Maddon fan. And for the millionth time, I prder not to talk about managers. But Maddon does the make point that managers does have a particular expertise in the way they interact with the players on their teams.

And that's where a manager can make a difference. I just wouldn't call them "good" or "bad." They're like wives or girlfriends. What's a good wife to you, may be a bad wife to me. And vice versa. The thing is, you don't really know until you're in the marriage. That's why it's dumb to get all worked up over who is being hired.

Also, there is the matter of the manager taking the heat for decisions he isn't making. You have fans screaming at you because you brought in Bennett Sousa instead of Kendall Graveman, but the front office ordered you not to use Graveman today. So the fans don't know shit.


I'm probably butchering this, but for what it's worth Bill James does believe there are good managers. He breaks managing down into 33% in game managing 33% pre-game managing (setting lineup, etc.) and (c) 33% unknown. It's the first two that are pretty easy to recognize a weakness or strength, but the last one is almost impossible to measure, but it's likely there.

I wonder what he'd say now since so many managers (apparently) have many decisions made for them by the GMs.


That's a good question, I think the essay I read was from the late 1980s so the equation has definitely changed as far as (a) and (b), but (c) is maybe more important now for a manager and it's the most difficult to measure.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:23 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Go ahead and keep pitching to Harper in key situations.

Is that "good" or "bad" managing?

I would suggest it's bad.



I don't know. Is the pitcher's job to limit baserunners? If it is, why would you put anyone on on purpose?

He's slugging .900 and his OPS is 1.35 and he's swinging like pumpkins are coming. There's a 55% chance you can get him out. But if you don't K him, it's down to 50%. He fucking Barry Bonds out there right now. I'll take the 1st and 2nd and nobody out. You take the 50/50.



I'm not sure what the right decision is there. I don't think I'd intentionally walk anyone except in the rarest circumstance and that wasn't it.

But the larger conversation to me is how much modern statistical analysis has confused the fan. It's become conventional wisdom that "a pitcher's job is to limit baserunners." As you know, I don't think that's a pitcher's job. But if you do believe that's the pitcher's job- I'm not saying you do, though you have mocked my contention that a starter's primary job is making sure his team scores first- how could you ever support putting a man on base on purpose?

A pitcher's job is to keep your team in the game. As far as Harper, you can't let this guy beat you. He's just too hot. If I'm the Astros, I pitch to him until he leaves a big hurt. Then I don't in key situations from there on. That doesn't mean intentional walks. That means off the plate or up. Now if he hits a gapper on a ball 5" outside, there's only one thing left to do. Unfocus him. In the backside.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 9:02 am 
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Would think this week would be the time when something is announced. Get it in before the WS starts.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 9:05 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Would think this week would be the time when something is announced. Get it in before the WS starts.

Unless it is Espada or Long, they may prefer to wait until after the WS so as not to distract from their current team.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 9:09 am 
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Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Would think this week would be the time when something is announced. Get it in before the WS starts.

Unless it is Espada or Long, they may prefer to wait until after the WS so as not to distract from their current team.


I wonder if KW is spending this time trying to convince Jerry not to hire Ozzie.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 9:13 am 
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Thomas-Sox-WorldSeries wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Would think this week would be the time when something is announced. Get it in before the WS starts.

Unless it is Espada or Long, they may prefer to wait until after the WS so as not to distract from their current team.


I wonder if KW is spending this time trying to convince Jerry not to hire Ozzie.

I would say that is always possible. I honestly cannot believe it was reported that they are interviewing him.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 9:53 am 
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The time to bring Ozzie in was Memorial Day last year.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 9:57 am 
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Thomas-Sox-WorldSeries wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Would think this week would be the time when something is announced. Get it in before the WS starts.

Unless it is Espada or Long, they may prefer to wait until after the WS so as not to distract from their current team.


I wonder if KW is spending this time trying to convince Jerry not to hire Ozzie.


I heard it from a person who is not close to the situation but close to a few of the principals involved, that it is going to be Ozzie.

Skeptical me, of course, called bullshit on it in front of our friends, so the gauntlet is thrown down

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:18 am 
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Maybe Jerry and or Kenny are just really pissed off and they want Ozzie to kick some asses? Hahn should be pissed to but I do not know his temperament.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:22 am 
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I think you have to think about this in regards to the window. Ozzie has watched this team and his claim of knowing it better than anybody is legit. So I don't think an outsider, with the shortened window, has a more legit claim than the insider Ozzie. Hahn has twice now said he prefers managerial experience. Ozzie wowed KW and JR the first time around. There's a decent possibility he wowed Hahn this time around. Ozzie can be impressive as hell when he wants to be.

My gut feeling is Hahn prefers Ozzie and JR and KW prefer Not Ozzie. Hahn will go byebye this time if he's overruled. He has to be thinking, "I'm an assistant GM, I can be an assistant GM anywhere...and that's at a minimum."

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Last edited by Nardi on Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:23 am 
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Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Would think this week would be the time when something is announced. Get it in before the WS starts.

Unless it is Espada or Long, they may prefer to wait until after the WS so as not to distract from their current team.


Dusty may retire if the Astros win the WS. That may be Espada's job. It's also possible that the Astros won't retain Dusty if he loses the WS, and Espada will slide over.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:26 am 
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Nardi wrote:
I think you have to think about this in regards to the window. Ozzie has watched this team and his claim of knowing it better than anybody is legit. So I don't think an outsider, with the shortened window, has a more legit claim than the insider Ozzie. Hahn has twice now said he prefers managerial experience. Ozzie wowed KW and JR the first time around. There's a decent possibility he wowed Hahn this time around. Ozzie can be impressive as hell when he wants to be.

My gut feeling is Hahn prefers Ozzie and JR and KW prefer Not Ozzie. Hahn will go byebye this time if he's overruled. He has to be thinking, "I'm an assistant GM, I can be an assistant GM anywhere...and that's at a minimum."


If JR doesnt want Ozzie then I have a hard time thinking he would get an interview.

I think Hahn wants someone from outside the organization like Espada.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:31 am 
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RFDC wrote:
Nardi wrote:
I think you have to think about this in regards to the window. Ozzie has watched this team and his claim of knowing it better than anybody is legit. So I don't think an outsider, with the shortened window, has a more legit claim than the insider Ozzie. Hahn has twice now said he prefers managerial experience. Ozzie wowed KW and JR the first time around. There's a decent possibility he wowed Hahn this time around. Ozzie can be impressive as hell when he wants to be.

My gut feeling is Hahn prefers Ozzie and JR and KW prefer Not Ozzie. Hahn will go byebye this time if he's overruled. He has to be thinking, "I'm an assistant GM, I can be an assistant GM anywhere...and that's at a minimum."


If JR doesnt want Ozzie then I have a hard time thinking he would get an interview.

I think Hahn wants someone from outside the organization like Espada.

I think he got an interview.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:32 am 
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Nas wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Would think this week would be the time when something is announced. Get it in before the WS starts.

Unless it is Espada or Long, they may prefer to wait until after the WS so as not to distract from their current team.


Dusty may retire if the Astros win the WS. That may be Espada's job. It's also possible that the Astros won't retain Dusty if he loses the WS, and Espada will slide over.

That is a really good point. I'd call the odds of Dustry retiring very high and that being Espada's job.

There are much worse options than Ozzie. Maybe not my first choice, but I'd be ok with it.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:35 am 
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RFDC wrote:
If JR doesnt want Ozzie then I have a hard time thinking he would get an interview.

I think Hahn wants someone from outside the organization like Espada.
I don't necessarily disagree, but technically Ozzie is outside the organization.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:53 am 
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Thomas-Sox-WorldSeries wrote:
Chet Coppock's Fur Coat wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Would think this week would be the time when something is announced. Get it in before the WS starts.

Unless it is Espada or Long, they may prefer to wait until after the WS so as not to distract from their current team.


I wonder if KW is spending this time trying to convince Jerry not to hire Ozzie.


I heard it from a person who is not close to the situation but close to a few of the principals involved, that it is going to be Ozzie.

Skeptical me, of course, called bullshit on it in front of our friends, so the gauntlet is thrown down



I heard the same. And I am also skeptical.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 26, 2022 11:10 am 
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I have a gut feeling because time is short. Both for the window and JR's life.

"Nobody knows this team better than me" keeps repeating in my head.

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