Meditate is a nice horse.

I was all over that.

grrrrr
out of the pick 5

Still a very positive day. looking forward to tomorrow

Final race

Trifecta Key Box 13 with/ 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 9

$45

If Flightline has a weakness, it's that he's not the classiest horse in the field. He has the fourth best win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at only 11.6%. First is Hot Rod Charlie at 24.3%, but Hot Rod Charlie fell out of form in his last race.

So I'm looking at Life is Good here, especially if the track conditions are dry. His performance was worse in the Woodward versus the Whitney because of wet and dry tracks. 6-1 is fair value for the horse, but I see some evidence in the simulation that he could be closer to 3-1.

Happy Saver is an interesting horse as a long shot. He gave Life is Good a run for his money in the Whitney in Aug.

Saturday's forecast looks good with only a slight chance of rain later...very windy...25 MPH appears to be a slight headwind on the back stretch and the opposite on the home stretch, but really more of a crosswind

Early Pick 5

4, 8, 12
3, 6
4, 7, 13
1, 3, 4, 8
2, 9

Good luck, get rich

Race 2 cold exacta Messier/Nakatomi

I think Night Time is live here at a huge price.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Explain that to me like I'm a two year old. How can his win percentage be abything but 100%?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Kash, and Don

Race 3 FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
Champ Ce Ce returns, but winners of this race returning are only 1 for 6…speed horses are not successful, it has never been won wire to wire…if anyone could do it would be the 13-Echo Zulu, but he’ll have to work out a trip on the backstretch to offset his poor post position…the two horses coming out of the Ballerina the 7-Obligitory and the 8-Goodnight Olive (getting better each race) both had bad trips but finished 1st and 3rd…both figure in here as well

13-7-8-4

Made some adjustments to my early P5 after scratches, alive to 4,7,13/3,4,8/2,9

If two horses are undefeated (with the same stakes history in terms of dollar amount) and race one another, their adjusted win percentage would be 50% not 100%. In other words, both would have a 50% chance of winning. The math is different with more horses having different stakes races in their history, but basically that's how it is applied. So a 11.6% WP would have a fair value around 8-1. But Flightline projects like a 3-5 horse in final speed according to the simulation (64.4% win prob. according to SPD).

The morning line is overweighting Flightline's SPD projection but underweighting his win percentage adjusted for stakes. The WP is essentially a class measure that still relates mathematically to the odds.

3rd- Ce Ce beats em again
4th- Creative Force buck this connection hell no
5th-Cody's Wish WWN does have a heart
6th-Rougir loved his last at Woodbine up in time
7th Jackies Warrior catch me if you can
8th- Exacta box Dream Looper & Modern games the Brits slap us again
9th-Nest you must know why
10th- Nations Pride
11th- Flightline just sit back and watch something special

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Race 4-Turf Sprint
Really like the 8-Golden Pal but returning winners are only 2 for 9 in this event…the 6-Highfield Princess will be a player and get a lot of money…like how the pace could set up for Ward’s 4-Campanelle who is 4/4 ITM at this distance (and Brisnet’s top Prime Power rank) hope he stays around 8-1…I also really like the 3-Emaraaty Ann at a huge price and will include

4-8-13-6

2,9
All
1,6,8
3,4,5,7,11
4

_________________
"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

$20 for 2nd!

Race 5 DIRT MILE

Life is Good romped here last year but has bigger dreams in ’22…last winners of this race 4 won wire-to-wire…

Four horses, 5-Gunite, 6-Laurel River (scratched), 7-Cody’s Wish and the 9-Cyberknife all have posted plus 100 Brisnet Speed numbers in their respective last 3 races… only a few horses are without Grade 1 experience (that includes both the 6 and the 7 which will be among the favorites)…this is a very high level G1 race…the 7-Cody’s Wish will be a favorite for the bettors, but he’s had the benefit of some really fast paces to run into and this time has a lot of company attempting to do the same…Think there will be just enough speed to set up for a couple horses just off the pace including the 5-Gunite and the 2-Simplification who should go off at a big price...Cyberknife's losses were to Taiba, Zandon and Epicenter

2-9-5-6

Well it certainly was fast 22/45...Cody's Wish had never done it over two turns, impressive...got beat, but it's a good story for the sport

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Race 6 Filly and Mare Turf


If the 11-In Italian can walk them around slowly on the lead, will be tough to beat...horse has won here already...that being said betting against him and boxing the 3-Nashwa, 4-Above The Curve, 9-Rougir and 12-Moira in an exacta

Nice hit

Above the Curve seems like a nice price.

good call..The Will Pays demonstrate that, he's the 2nd choice in the Pick 3 but 4th currently, huge value

Fuck that was fast

almost played out OTE tough beat

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

That would be me. I had Above the Curve and Tuesday in the second leg of the pick 3. Probably won't pay much just need Jackie's Warrior in the third leg.

Race 7-Pick 5

4, 9 Jackie's Warrior is too tough here
1, 4, 8, 14 1-Pogo could sneak them WTW...4 and 8 are logical..14 draws in, many will forget...he's live
1, 6 Both really really fast, which comes in handy in horse racing
2, 4, 5, 7, 11 Appleby continue to crush (5,7)? Mishriff is dangerous, 4-Broome 2nd in this event, O'Brien crushes here
1, 4, 5, 6 Won't be surprised by a generational effort by Flightline, also wouldn't be surprised if he lost due top the increase in competition

Local trainer Wayne Catalalona has two here, and won last year small WPS on the 1 and 5 as well

OK that didn't go as planned, using the remainder of my now defunct P5 for the P4....

Race 8 BC MILE

Love the 14-Domestic Spending...the1-Pogo huge value, could wire them...4-Modern Games and 5-Smooth Like Strait both fit as well

14-1-5-4

Nice job by Prat getting the 14 out of the race

the next race should be a match between the 1-Malathaat and the 6-Nest unless the 8-Society freaks and takes them wire to wire